中國乳品企業雅士利發佈盈利預警
Yashili Holdings, the Chinese infant formula maker part-owned by Danone, has warned full-year profits will fall by almost half, sending jitters through other strategic and financial investors who piled into China’s once-booming dairy industry.
達能(Danone)部分持股的中國嬰兒配方奶粉生產商雅士利控股(Yashili Holdings)警告全年盈利將下降近一半，這個消息給當初競相進軍中國繁榮的乳製品行業的戰略和金融投資者帶來緊張。The soured outlook for a commodity once dubbed “white gold” comes on the back of crashing international prices that have led to farmers across northern China slaughtering cows and dumping milk.
乳製品一度被稱爲“白色金子”，但其前景因爲國際市場價格崩盤而惡化，導致整個華北的農民紛紛屠宰奶牛和倒掉牛奶。
China is by far the world’s largest buyer of fresh milk and powder, after Russia banned imports of fresh milk and cheese from Europe. The ban contributed to a glut of supply in international markets that has sent milk prices plummeting since the summer.
在俄羅斯禁止從歐洲進口鮮牛奶和奶酪後，中國是全球遙遙領先的最大鮮牛奶和奶粉買家。俄羅斯的禁令加劇了國際市場的供過於求，導致牛奶價格從去年夏天開始大幅下降。
That has been bad news for Chinese dairy farmers and consumer brands alike.
這對中國奶農和消費者品牌是壞消息。Yashili, a formula maker based in southern China controlled by Mengniu, China’s largest dairy firm, warned yesterday that its profits for 2014 would fall 40 per cent due to increased competition and a shake-up in its distribution channels. In response investors sent its Hong Kong-listed shares down as much as 6 per cent before the stock reversed to end the day up 0.9 per cent.
總部設在華南的雅士利由中國最大乳品公司蒙牛(Mengniu)控股。雅士利昨日警告稱，其2014年利潤將下降40%，原因是競爭加劇和分銷渠道重組。消息傳出後，該公司在香港上市的股票一度下跌6%，但隨後止跌反彈，全日上漲0.9%。Four months ago, French yoghurt maker Danone agreed to take a 25 per cent stake in Yashili for $550m, part of its efforts to increase its footprint in China’s growing dairy products market. Danone also is a shareholder in Mengniu, which is controlled by state-owned grains and food conglomerate Cofco.
4個月前，法國酸奶生產商達能同意以5.5億美元購得雅士利25%的股份，這是達能尋求在中國不斷增長的乳製品市場擴大足跡的計劃的一部分。達能也是蒙牛的股東之一，蒙牛由國有的糧食及食品巨擘中糧集團(Cofco)控股。With imported milk powder now so cheap, Chinese processors are remixing it to sell as liquid milk, driving down margins and further eroding demand for domestically produced fresh milk. Beijing is expected to issue regulations to curb the practice.
由於進口奶粉如今很便宜，中國的加工企業利用其爲原料，製成液態奶銷售，此舉壓低了利潤率，並進一步削弱了市場對國內生產的鮮牛奶的需求。北京方面預計將發佈法規，遏制這種做法。The larger problem for China’s dairy investors is that their cost of production is as much as twice as expensive as that of farms in US, New Zealand or Argentina. Also, many inexperienced investors have not calculated the cost of high-quality, imported feed into their operational models, meaning the milk they do produce tends to be of lower quality.
對中國乳業投資者來說，更大的問題是，中國企業的生產成本兩倍於美國、新西蘭和阿根廷的農場。還有，許多沒有經驗的投資者未曾在自己的運營模型中計算優質進口原料的成本，這意味着他們生產的牛奶往往質量較低。“The end result is they are losing money,” says Shi Tao, a Shanghai-based analyst with agricultural consultancy eFeedlink.
“最終結果是他們在賠錢，”農業諮詢公司益農國際(eFeedlink)常駐上海的分析師施濤表示。
