俄羅斯經濟出現六年來最大幅度萎縮

Russia’s economy contracted by 4.6 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period in 2014, the largest drop in six years, marking the country’s first recession since the financial crisis in 2009.

今年第二季度，俄羅斯經濟同比萎縮4.6%，萎縮幅度爲六年來最大，標誌着該國自2009年金融危機以來首次陷入衰退。

The Federal Statistics Office did not offer any details with its first estimate, but analysts said the preliminary figure was likely to be revised downward as sectoral statistics — which includes retail sales, industrial production and household incomes — pointed to an even steeper drop in real terms.

俄羅斯聯邦統計局(Federal Statistics Office)未就其首個估計值提供任何細節。但分析師表示，這一初值很可能會被向下修正，原因是部門統計數據（包括零售總額、工業產出和家庭收入）顯示，俄經濟的實際萎縮幅度比這個數字還要大。

The 4.6 per cent contraction was slightly worse than analysts’ consensus estimate. Economists warned that the renewed slide in oil prices, which has pushed the rouble lower, would make a quick recovery even More unlikely.

4.6%的萎縮幅度比分析師的一致估計要略糟一些。經濟學家曾警告說，油價的再次下跌將進一步降低俄經濟短期內復甦的可能性。油價的下跌已導致盧布出現貶值。

The figure comes after the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by a relatively mild 2.2 per cent. Until June, the Russian government had been assuring the public that the worst of the current crisis was over as the rouble stabilised after undergoing a severe depreciation at the end of last year.

今年第一季度，俄經濟也出現了萎縮，萎縮幅度相對適中，爲2.2%。直到今年6月，俄政府還在向公衆保證，由於盧布匯率趨於穩定（盧布曾在去年底遭遇嚴重貶值），目前這輪危機的最嚴重時期已經結束。

But the first drop in real incomes during president Vladimir Putin’s 15 years in power, which came about in December 2014, has proved a profound obstacle to overcome.

但事實證明，俄經濟去年12月出現的實際收入下滑，可不是那麼容易克服的一個困難。這次實際收入下滑是俄總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin) 15年掌權期間的首次。

According to figures published last month, the slide in consumer spending deepened in the second quarter with retail sales falling by 9.4 per cent in June. Growth in the industrial sector, which had been flat in the first three months of the year, also dropped by almost 5 per cent in the second quarter.

上月發佈的數據顯示，今年第二季度俄消費者支出下滑幅度加大，6月份俄零售總額減少9.4%。今年第一季度保持不變的工業產出，在第二季度也下滑了近5%。

“With oil prices having fallen further over the past few months it remains too soon to speak about a recovery,” said Liza Ermolenko, an analyst with Capital Economics.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)分析師麗莎葉爾莫連科(Liza Ermolenko)表示：“考慮到過去幾個月油價進一步下跌，現在談復甦還爲時過早。”

Economic growth already slowed to a crawl last year due to a long-running investment dearth. The blow dealt by the oil price drop was worsened by western sanctions imposed over Russia’s role in the Ukraine conflict, which blocks many Russian companies and banks from borrowing abroad.

由於缺乏長期投資，俄經濟增速已在去年放緩至極低水平。除了油價暴跌造成的打擊，西方因俄在烏克蘭衝突中扮演的角色而對俄實施的制裁，也令俄經濟雪上加霜。西方的制裁導致俄許多企業和銀行無法從境外獲得貸款。

Fears that this squeeze would trigger a broader systemic crisis receded when the rouble stabilised around 50 to the US dollar this spring after a steep fall. It has since depreciated to 64 to the US dollar — raising fresh concerns.

盧布兌美元匯率急劇下跌後於今年春天企穩在1美元兌50盧布左右，這使得人們逐漸打消了這波壓力將引發更大範圍系統性危機的擔憂。但自那以來，盧布匯率已跌至1美元兌64盧布，從而引發了新的擔憂。

“This is by far the most severe crisis Russia has experienced, even if you compare it to 1998 and 2008, and we have not seen the worst yet,” said Irene Shvakman, director at McKinsey in Moscow. “The banking sector may turn out to be the weak link.”

麥肯錫(McKinsey)駐莫斯科董事伊列涅什瓦克曼(Irene Shvakman)表示：“這無疑是俄經歷過的最嚴重的危機，即使與1998年和2008年比也是如此，而且我們還沒有看到這輪危機的最嚴重階段。銀行業部門或許最終將是薄弱那一環。”

Since last summer, the Russian government had promoted import substitution, hoping that the weak rouble would make it competitive again to manufacture goods which Russia has largely imported since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But analysts said the contraction in industrial production showed that any such positive effect had been shortlived.

自去年夏天起，俄政府就在推動進口替代，寄望於疲軟的盧布能讓俄羅斯的製造業產品重獲競爭力。自蘇聯解體以來，俄所用的製造業產品基本靠進口。不過，分析師表示，工業產出的萎縮證明，此舉帶來的任何積極影響都是短命的。