中國的經濟驅動力正在改變,一個時代正在終結

Probably the least surprising thing about China's GDP growth rate for the first three months of the year is that it slowed to 7%. After all, that's the target for the year.

可能對中國首季度gdp增速來說，降至7%完全在人們意料之內。畢竟，這個增速本身就是本年度的目標。

What's more surprising are the drivers: Consumption more than investment, services outpacing manufacturing, and domestic demand rather than exports. Taking today's figures and the data for March together with the full year picture for 2014 shows that China's growth drivers are changing.

可是，讓人吃驚的是經濟驅動力：消費超過了投資，服務業超過了製造業，同時，國內需求超過了出口。今天的數據加上三月份的數據，還有2014年全年的數據都表明，中國的經濟驅動力正在改變。

Consumption contributed 3.8 percentage points to 2014's 7.4% growth rate, which is more than investment which accounted for 3.6 percentage points. Net exports - so exports minus imports - contributed nothing.

消費貢獻了2014年7.4%經濟增速中的3.8%，這已經超過了投資貢獻的3.6%。淨出口——也就是出口減去進口——貢獻爲0。

Consumption has risen to account for more than 50% of GDP, which is a sizeable increase from 2009's 35%, and finally places China in the realm of market economies where consumption is between half to two-thirds of GDP.

消費對gdp的貢獻已經超過了50%，這在2009年只有35%，而市場經濟部分消費的貢獻則已經從gdp的一半上升到三分之二。

It mirrors the rise of the services part of the economy, which includes non-tradeables like haircuts, becoming larger than manufacturing that included many exported goods.

這折射出經濟體中服務業的增長，主要爲不可交易貨物（比如理髮）的服務業，已經變得比製造業（包括很多出口貨物）更大龐大。

Real estate risk

真正的房地產危機

Indeed, industrial production in March expanded by 5.6%, the slowest on record, which was significantly outpaced by retail sales - a measure of consumption - which grew at over 10%.

確實，3月份的工業增速爲5.6%，創下最慢記錄，被零售業（一項消費指標）大幅度超越——零售業的增長超過10%。

This is what China has been trying to achieve - a re-balancing of its economy away from excessive reliance on exports and investment and more on its own middle class consumers and expanding services.

這就是中國想要達到的——經濟再平衡，從過度依賴出口和投資，到主要依賴它自己的中產階級消費者與擴張的服務業。

It's part of their aim of overcoming the middle income country trap to become prosperous by improving the quality of the growth drivers in the economy.

這是他們目標的一部分，他們的目標是，通過提高經濟驅動力質量，跨過中等收入陷阱，實現進一步繁榮。

Growing more through consumption and services is similar to the growth drivers of developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe. So, China's re-balancing also marks the beginning of the end of a period of rapid growth that is based on industrialisation.

通過消費和服務業驅動增長與歐美髮達國家的驅動方式很相似。所以，中國的再平衡標誌着，基於工業化的高速增長時代開始終結。

Manufacturing and "catching up" launched China from a poor to a middle income country in the past 35 years. The next stage is growing as a middle income economy, which will naturally be slower than the initial phase.

製造業和"追趕效應"讓中國在35年內從一個貧窮的國家成爲一箇中等收入國家。在下一階段，中國將作爲一箇中等收入國家繼續增長，而增長的速度自然要比初始階段慢一些。

Statistical uncertainty

不準確的統計

After all, 5% growth for an emerging market looks slow while 3% growth for a developed one would be considered fast.

畢竟，對新興市場來說，5%的增速看起來很慢，同時，對發達經濟體來說，3%的增速被認爲很快。

Still, any slowdown poses risks. For China, it is notably in terms of real estate and investment which may be slowing down too quickly and poses a risk for banks. It is why the government has introduced measures to support the housing market and cut interest rates to stimulate lending.

然而，很多減速會造成危機。對中國來說，很明顯的是，房地產和投資可能會過快減速，並造成銀行危機。這就是爲什麼政府會出臺措施支撐房地產市場，並降低利率以鼓勵借貸。

The government is also likely to spend to support the economy if job growth slows. But, so far, a slower growth rate hasn't meant fewer jobs since a services economy is labour-intensive and last year saw 13 million plus jobs created against a 10 million target.

如果新增就業崗位減少，政府也可能會採取措施提振經濟。但是，到目前爲止，低速增長並不意味着更少的就業崗位，因爲服務型經濟是勞動密集型經濟，而去年的新增就業崗位達到1300萬，已經超過了制定的新增1000萬就業的目標。

The unemployment rate is 5.1% - though that's likely to be mis-measured since rural area employment isn't well captured.

失業率爲5.1%——雖然可能是不準確信息，因爲農村就業率很難掌握。

So, the picture in terms of re-balancing looks better than the headline growth rate of the slowest quarterly growth rate since the global financial crisis. But, the biggest uncertainties lie beyond the macroeconomic statistics, which aren't always reliable, and instead reside in the micro picture for the financial atic transformation.

所以，經濟再平衡看起來比頭版頭條的那個《金融危機以來最慢增速》要美好得多。但是，宏觀經濟學有非常大的不確定性，並不總是可靠的，相反，金融系統中的微觀部分才能洞悉天機。

The IMF yesterday downgraded China's growth to below 7% this year and next year. If growth slows down considerably - even if planned as part of the restructuring of the economy - then will lower demand affect the ability to repay loans?

國際貨幣基金組織昨天下調了中國今年和明年的經濟增速至7%。如果增速下滑嚴重——即使按照計劃進行的經濟結構調整——也會降低需求，影響償還貸款的能力。

Commercial developers are leveraged and there are reported difficulties in leasing office space. House prices have fallen across the country and requirements have been loosened for mortgages.

商業地產開發商都有高槓杆，據報道他們也很難租出自己的寫字樓。房價下跌已經席捲了整個國家，貸款已經被放鬆用以提振需求。

These are questions that will undoubtedly be raised as China seeks to do what no other country has done, which is to overcome the middle income trap for a billion-plus population.

當中國試圖做一件其他國家從未做過的事情——讓超過10億的龐大人口同時跨過中等收入陷阱——時，這些問題就毫無疑問的被放大了。

What the rest of the world also has never experienced is its second largest economy undertaking such a dramatic structural transformation that is likely to entail volatility.

世界上其他所有國家從沒有體驗過的是：這個世界上第二大經濟體正在着手進行一場激動人心的結構轉變，轉變的過程如此的跌宕起伏。

The U.S. growth engine looks like it's coming back, and it's certainly not too soon as the era of rapid growth in China comes to an end.

美國看起來已經找回了自己的增長引擎，相信在不久後，中國的高速增長時代也會終結。