歐元在希臘危機中淪爲博弈工具

As the Greek crisis escalated in recent days, Europe’s common currency crossed a line that could taint it forever.

近日，隨着希臘危機日益加劇，歐洲的通用貨幣越過了一條界限，而這種情況可能會對其造成極爲長久的負面影響。

The crucial moment occurred when Greece’s debt dispute with other European countries became a fight to stay in the euro. The prospect of a country leaving the currency was once unthinkable. Europe’s goal is to form an “ever closer union” — and the euro’s creators expected the currency to play a driving role in that process.

當希臘與歐洲其他國家的債務糾紛演變成一場關於是否要留在歐元區的鬥爭時，歐元也走到了決定性的時刻。曾經，很難想象哪個國家會離開歐元區。歐洲的目標是形成一個“日益緊密的聯盟”，而歐元的締造者希望歐元能在這一過程中起推動作用。

“You are the euro, and upon this currency we will build our Europe,” is how one fervent European leader put it two decades ago. But as relations between Greece and its creditors broke down last month, the currency stopped being a force for unity. In many ways, it became a weapon that each side seized upon to advance its cause.

20年前，一位熱衷於此的歐洲領導人曾經宣稱，“你就是歐元，而我們將在這個貨幣的基礎上建立自己的歐洲。”但是，隨着希臘和債權人的關係於上個月破裂，歐元已不再是一股團結的力量。從很多方面而言，它變成了一件武器，被各方用來爲己謀利。

Greece’s creditors, mostly other European countries, appeared to gain the most leverage from this tactic. Knowing that the Greek people greatly favor being in the euro, European leaders have raised the specter of an exit, in part as a way to press Greece’s government into a compromise.

作爲希臘最主要的債權人，歐洲其他國家似乎從這種策略中獲得了最大的籌碼。在知道希臘民衆非常支持繼續留在歐元區的情況下，歐洲領導人祭出了讓希臘退出的可怕前景，部分原因就是爲了以此脅迫希臘政府作出妥協。

“We have a Grexit scenario prepared in detail,” Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, said on Tuesday, using the term for a Greek exit from the euro. On the other side, Greece’s leaders have decried similar comments as “blackmail.” But they, too, have tried to stoke fears about the euro to get their way, raising concerns about the damage that a Greek departure might cause to the euro and the Continent’s economy.

“我們已經爲‘希臘退出’(Grexit)的情景做了詳盡準備，”歐盟委員會主席讓-克洛德·容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)週二表示。“希臘退出”指的是該國退出歐元區。另一方面，希臘領導人對類似的言論表示譴責，稱其爲“敲詐”。不過，爲了達到自身的目的，他們也在煽動人們對歐元的擔心。他們強調，倘若希臘退出，可能會對歐元和整個歐洲大陸的經濟造成負面影響。

The common currency became a cudgel.

這種共同貨幣演變爲了一根大棒。

Analysts are assessing the damage done to the euro, used by Greece and 18 other countries, as well as the potential for a shock to the Continent’s wider economy. A chaotic Grexit could disrupt financial markets and damp economic activity.

分析人士正在評估歐元遭受的損害，以及歐洲大陸的宏觀經濟受到衝擊的可能性。歐元區包括希臘和其他18個國家。混亂的“希臘退出”可能會擾亂金融市場、遏制經濟活動。

Still, the currency is not expected to fall apart completely. It is possible that the euro would in some ways strengthen if a Greek departure left behind a group of participating countries that got along better. Greece accounts for only 2 percent of the euro area’s gross domestic product.

不過，歐元區不大可能完全分崩離析。如果希臘退出後，剩下的國家能更融洽地相處，歐元或許還會在某種程度上得到強化。希臘在歐元區的GDP中僅佔2%。

Even so, many analysts say that some of the important ideals behind the euro — such as cooperation and inclusivity — have suffered a big blow.

儘管如此，許多分析人士仍然表示，歐元背後的一些重要理念——比如合作與包容——受到了重創。

“To be honest, the dream has died regardless of what happens with Greece, because that dream was just a fantasy,” said Jens J. Nordvig, an analyst with Nomura Securities and the author of “The Fall of the Euro.”

野村證券(Nomura Securities)分析師、《歐元的覆滅》(The Fall of the Euro)的作者延斯·J·諾德維克(Jens J. Nordvig)表示，“老實說，不論希臘情況如何，夢想都已經破滅，因爲這個夢想只是個白日夢。”

On Wednesday, Greece submitted a request for a new loan that expressed its intent to carry out the sort of overhauls that its creditors favor. Yet even if a deal is done, and Greece remains within the common currency, the last few months have fully revealed the potential fault lines within the euro.

週三，希臘提交了申請新貸款的計劃，並表達了實施其債權人支持的全面改革的意願。不過，就算能達成協議，希臘留在歐元區，過去幾個月的情況也完全暴露了歐元區潛在的內部鴻溝。

The struggle over Greece could set an unforgettable precedent for the next time any country runs afoul of a European majority. “You have an incomplete currency area that is vulnerable,” Mr. Nordvig said. “It doesn’t mean it’s going to totally disintegrate, but it’s going to remain vulnerable.”

關於希臘的鬥爭，可以爲下一個與歐洲大部分地區對抗的國家設立一個難忘的先例。“這個不完整的貨幣區很脆弱，”諾德維克說。“這並不是說它將完全瓦解，但它會一直很脆弱。”

Greece’s problems show just how different the euro is from, say, the dollar. In the United States, if one region goes into a slump, it does not face being cut off from the rest of the country. The federal government usually provides fiscal support to the region without igniting a firestorm of resistance from other parts of the United States. And the Federal Reserve can make emergency loans to the banks in the region to prevent runs on the financial system there.

希臘的問題說明了歐元與其他貨幣的區別，比如美元。在美國，如果一個地區陷入經濟困境，它不會面臨被其他地區隔絕的問題。聯邦政府通常會爲該地區提供財政支持，這種做法也不會引起其他地區的激烈反對。美聯儲可以向該地區的銀行提供緊急貸款，從而防止當地的金融系統出現擠兌。

In Europe, the process for helping troubled countries is much more difficult and fragmented.

在歐洲，幫助陷入困境的國家的過程要艱難得多、分散得多。

Greece has received some assistance from the rest of Europe, through bailouts in 2010 and 2012, and the European Central Bank has provided considerable emergency loans to Greek banks. Greece even followed through on some of the austerity measures that its creditors demanded. But after several years of hard times, staggeringly high unemployment and debt loads that remained stifling, the Greeks in January voted for a leftist government. It did not want to have to agree to more austerity to receive fresh aid, which was then going to be used to pay off a large amount of debt coming due this year and next.

希臘通過2010及2012年的救助計劃從歐洲其他國家獲得了一些幫助，歐洲央行也向希臘銀行提供了可觀的緊急貸款。希臘甚至還採用了債權人要求的一些緊縮舉措。但經過幾年的苦日子，希臘失業率居高不下、債務負擔依然沉重，民衆在今年1月投票讓左翼政府上臺。希臘不想通過被迫同意採取更多緊縮舉措來獲取新的援助，再把這些援助資金用於支付今年或明年到期的大量債務。

The parallels are not exact, but if Greece were a heavily indebted city in the United States, things could have turned out quite differently. Greece could have filed for bankruptcy. And during the ordeal, it is highly unlikely that the city and all its banks would face the prospect of losing their access to dollars.

這樣的對比並不準確，但如果希臘是一座負債累累的美國城市，事情可能會截然不同。希臘可以申請破產。在這場災難中，這樣的一座城市及其所有銀行不大可能面臨無法獲得美元的前景。

Greece, however, is now being deprived of fresh euros. This has caused the banks to allow only the tiniest withdrawals, and it means that Greece may soon have to introduce a new currency, which would almost certainly be worth far less than the euro. Fears of the latter may yet persuade Greece’s government to give some ground and make a deal before a Sunday deadline that Europe laid down this week.

然而，希臘現在被剝奪了獲得新的歐元的權利。這導致銀行只允許民衆最小限度地取款，還意味着希臘可能很快就需要推出新貨幣，而這種貨幣的價值幾乎肯定會比歐元低得多。對於後一種情況的擔心可能會說服希臘政府作出一些讓步，在歐洲本週設定的截止日期週日到來之前達成協議。

If the Greek government wants to stay within the eurozone, it may yet try to hold firm after Greek voters expressed strong opposition to creditor demands in a referendum on Sunday.

就算希臘政府希望留在歐元區，它仍然可能會堅守陣地，因爲選民在週日舉行的公投中對債權人的要求表示強烈反對。

“They basically said, ‘Find a way to keep us in the euro area without these crazy policies,’ ” said Charles Wyplosz, a professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. “I find that very reasonable.”

“他們基本上是在說，‘找到一種使我們既留在歐元區又不用採取這些瘋狂政策的方法，’”日內瓦高級國際關係及發展學院(Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)的國際經濟學教授查爾斯·維普洛斯(Charles Wyplosz)說。“我覺得這很合理。”

Europe’s leaders have shown little regard for that message — and in the coming days they may use the euro to apply more pressure on Greece.

歐洲領導人並不怎麼在意這條訊息。他們可能會在未來幾天利用歐元對希臘進一步施壓。

Still, Greece and its creditors may yet pull back from the brink to avoid a Greek departure from the euro.

不過，希臘及其債權人還是可能會從懸崖撤回，避免希臘離開歐元區。

“I don’t think the Greeks want that and I don’t think the Europeans want that,” said David R. Cameron, a professor of political science at Yale. “At the end of the day, it is a lot easier to write another check.”

“我覺得希臘並不希望離開，歐洲人也不想看到這樣的結果，”耶魯大學政治學教授戴維·R·卡梅倫(David R. Cameron)說。“說到底，再開一張支票總要容易得多。”