中國大宗商品需求銳減刺痛全球
Chile is expanding its largest open-pit copper mine below the northern desert to dig up 1.7 billion additional tons of minerals, even as metal prices plummet around the globe.
智利正在擴建該國北部沙漠下面的最大露天銅礦，以把礦石挖掘量增加17億噸，雖然全球範圍內的金屬價格正在大幅下降。
India is building railroad lines that crisscross the country to connect underused coal mines with growing urban populations, threatening to dump more resources into an already glutted market.
印度正在修建穿越國家的縱橫交錯的鐵路網，以把未得到充分利用的煤礦與不斷增長的城市人口連接起來，同時威脅着讓更多的資源拋售到一個已經供過於求的市場。
Australia is increasing natural gas production by roughly 150 percent over the next four years, as Energy companies build half a dozen export terminals to serve dwindling demand.
澳大利亞正在擴大天然氣的生產，產量在未來的四年中將大約增長50％，同時能源公司正在建造六個出口終端港，儘管需求在日益減少。
Across the commodities landscape, this worrisome mismatch mainly traces back to the same source: China.
跨越整個大宗商品風景線的這種令人擔憂的不匹配景象大都可追溯到同一根源：中國。
For years, China voraciously gobbled up all manner of metals, crops and fuels as its economy rapidly expanded. Countries and companies, fueled by cheap debt, aggressively broadened their operations, betting that China’s appetite would grow unabated.
多年來，隨着其經濟規模的迅速擴大，中國以極大的胃口消耗着各種各樣的金屬、農作物和燃料。其他國家和企業靠廉價貸款積極擴大自己的業務，他們押賭中國的胃口會只增不減。
Now everything has changed.
現在，一切都改變了。
China’s economy is slumping. American companies, struggling to pay their debts as interest rates rise, must keep producing. All the excess is crushing prices, hurting commodity-dependent economies across emerging markets like Brazil and Venezuela and developed countries like Australia and Canada.
中國的經濟正在走下坡路。隨着利率的上升，美國公司償還債務的壓力增大，必須不停地生產。這一切所導致的過剩進一步壓低了價格，傷害了依賴大宗商品的國家，不論是像巴西和委內瑞拉這樣的新興市場經濟體，還是諸如澳大利亞和加拿大等發達國家。
The geopolitical and financial consequences of this shift have shaken investor confidence. Concerns over global growth intensified in recent days, when weakness in China prompted a stock sell-off around the world.
這種轉變的地緣政治和經濟後果已經動搖了投資者的信心。對全球經濟增長的擔憂最近幾天有所加劇，中國經濟的疲軟觸發了一輪全球股票拋售。
The commodities hangover, the dark side of a decade-long boom, could last for a while.
大宗商品過剩是這十年繁榮的一個陰暗面，這個問題可能會持續一段時間。
Multibillion-dollar investment decisions made years ago on big projects, like the oil sands fields in Canada and iron ore mines in West Africa, are just getting up and running. Facing huge costs, companies cannot simply shut off projects. So the excess could take years to work through.
多年前做出的數十億美元的大項目投資決定，比如加拿大的油砂田和西非鐵礦石等項目，纔剛剛開始運行。面對巨大的成本投入，企業不可能簡單地把項目停掉。因此過剩的產能也許需要好幾年才能消化掉。
The flood of raw materials is pressuring prices, prompting a painful shakeout. Oil companies have laid off an estimated 250,000 workers worldwide. Alpha Natural Resources and other American coal mining companies have filed for bankruptcy protection.
商品價格正受到原材料大潮的衝擊，這將導致一次痛苦的洗牌。石油公司在世界各地已裁掉了大約25萬名工人。阿爾法自然資源(Alpha Natural Resources)及其他美國煤礦公司也已申請了破產保護。
Saudi Arabia, a giant energy economy, has had to tap the credit markets as its financial reserves dwindle. Venezuela, an oil-rich nation that went on a spending spree, is struggling to meet $10 billion in debt obligations this year, since 95 percent of export earnings depend on crude.
沙特阿拉伯是一個以出口能源爲主的巨大經濟體，隨着其財政儲備的減少，不得不求助於信貸市場。石油資源豐富的委內瑞拉曾大手大腳地花錢，而今年卻面臨着償還一筆10億美元債務的困難，因爲委內瑞拉95％的出口收入依賴於原油。
Michael Levi, an energy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, likened the reversal to a rainfall that first relieved a drought but then created a flood. “Producers ended up being their own worst enemies,” he said. “No one ever worried they would produce too much, but that is exactly what has happened and gotten them into this mess.”
美國外交關係委員會能源專家邁克爾·萊維(Michael Levi)把大宗商品供求關係的逆轉比作久旱後的降雨，雖然雨水一開始緩解了乾旱，但持續的降雨卻引發了洪水。“生產商反而成了自己最大的敵人，”他說。“沒人擔心他們會過多地產生，但這正是所發生的事情，這讓他們陷入了目前的狀況。”
Lower energy and material prices are often welcomed by consumers. An energy glut has allowed American households to save hundreds of dollars a year on gasoline and heating oil.
較低的能源和材料價格往往受到消費者的歡迎。能源過剩已經讓美國家庭在一年中省下了數百美元的汽油和取暖油錢。
But economists worry that the commodity mess reflects a weakening global economy, lowering the value of trade worldwide and perhaps even pushing some countries into the same kind of deflationary spiral that has hampered the Japanese economy for decades. Global turmoil last summer, stemming from China, prompted the United States to delay raising interest rates until the end of last year.
但經濟學家擔心，大宗商品問題是全球經濟疲軟的反映，這將導致世界各地貿易值的減少，甚至會把一些國家推入日本經歷過的那種通貨緊縮漩渦，通貨緊縮給日本經濟帶來了數十年的停滯不前。去年夏天從中國開始的全球經濟動盪，迫使美國推遲其加息計劃，直到去年年底纔開始實施。
“Lower oil prices have not proven to be as stimulative as economic theory once had it,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and vice chairman of the IHS consultancy. “The question is what are weak commodity prices telling us: Is it overinvestment in the past, or signaling a weaker global economy forward? My own feeling is the answer is both.”
“油價下跌並未被證明具有以前的經濟理論所認爲的那種刺激作用，”諮詢公司IHS的副董事長、能源歷史學家丹尼爾·耶爾金(Daniel Yergin)說。“問題是，大宗商品價格疲軟對我們有什麼啓示：這是過去的投資過度呢？還是意味着全球經濟的未來發展放緩？我本人的感覺是，答案是兩者兼而有之。”
Commodities have always been subject to booms and busts, rising and falling with the global economy. But China and the cheap debt have changed the equation in some ways.
大宗商品從來都受繁榮和蕭條的影響，與全球經濟同起同落。但是，中國、以及廉價貸款已在某種程度改變了供求關係的方程。
China’s rapid growth led to an increase in crude oil consumption to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2007, from 5.5 million barrels a day in 2003. It is now the world’s biggest importer of crude, having surpassed the United States. Other commodities have followed a similar pattern.
中國經濟的快速增長帶動了原油消費的直線上升，從2003年的每天550萬桶，到2007年的每天750萬桶。中國目前已經超過美國，成爲世界上最大的原油進口國。其他大宗商品的情況也基本上類似。
The increased demand fueled a surge in prices; copper tripled and zinc doubled over the five-year period ending in 2007. Americans and Europeans found themselves in what amounted to a bidding war for products as diversified as gasoline and coffee.
需求的增加推動了價格的飆升。在截至2007年的五年期間，銅的價格漲了200%，鋅的價格翻了一番。美國人和歐洲人發現，在從汽油到咖啡的各種各樣的產品上，他們實際上是在打競購戰。
Then the financial crisis hit in 2008. While the global economy faltered, China continued to grow, buying ever more commodities from developing countries. Those economies, in turn, flourished from the infusion of money.
後來，金融危機在2008年發生了。雖然全球經濟受到重創，但中國經濟卻仍在持續增長，中國從發展中國家購買的商品越來越多。這些國家的經濟由於中國注入的現金也得到了相應的蓬勃發展。
Peru, with its big bounty of copper and other metals, used its newfound riches to expand its middle class, creating a boom in shopping centers and apartment houses in its capital, Lima. Lagos, Nigeria, experienced the same, benefiting from the high price of oil.
祕魯的銅和其他金屬資源非常豐富，新發掘的財富增加了該國中產階層的基數，首都利馬矗立起一座座購物中心和公寓住宅。得益於高企的油價，尼日利亞拉各斯也經歷了同樣的繁榮。
The low interest rates, which had been cut to the bone because of the crisis, fueled the boom. The Brazilian energy company Petrobras accumulated $128 billion in debt, doubling its annual borrowing costs over the last three years.
危機之後的極低利率助長了這些繁榮。巴西能源公司巴西國家石油公司(Petrobras)累計債務已達1280億美元，其借貸成本在過去三年增加了一倍。
Then the commodity story started to change when Chinese growth slipped.
然後，隨着中國經濟增長的下滑，大宗商品的形勢開始發生了變化。
In 2015, commodity prices had their worst year since the financial crisis and global slowdown. Nickel, iron ore, palladium, platinum and copper all declined by 25 percent or more. Oil prices have declined by more than 60 percent over the last 18 months. Even corn, oat and wheat prices have sunk.
2015年是自金融危機和全球經濟增長放緩以來，大宗商品價格表現最糟糕的一年。鎳、鐵礦石、鈀、鉑，銅全線下降了25%或更多。過去18個月裏，油價已經下跌逾60%。就連玉米、燕麥和小麥的價格都遭受重挫。
And the commodity slide has continued into this year. At just over $30 a barrel, oil has reached levels not seen in over a decade.
大宗商品價格的下滑趨勢延續到了今年。油價跌至十年未見的低水平，每桶才30美元出頭。
The bust is made all the more pernicious by rising interest rates, as the Federal Reserve changes gears. Companies that took advantage of the cheap debt to increase production are now stuck with a big bill that will be difficult to cover.
隨着美聯儲改變政策，提高利率，公司遭受的衝擊更加嚴重。它們利用低成本貸款來提高產量，現在卻陷入了難以償付的大筆債務。
Freeport-McMoRan is putting the finishing touches on a $4.6 billion expansion of the Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru, which will triple production. The project is so big that it could consume nearly 10 percent of Peru’s electricity.
自由港邁克墨倫銅金礦公司(Freeport-McMoRan)投資46億美元，擴建了祕魯賽洛維德的銅礦，目前正在進行收尾工作。擴建後的銅礦產量將提高兩倍。該項目非常巨大，將消耗祕魯全國近10%的電力。
With copper prices at their lowest level in seven years, Freeport-McMoRan reported a $3.8 billion loss for the third quarter. The company’s shares have dropped by more than 70 percent over the last year. At the behest of the board, the executive chairman James R. Moffett stepped down at the end of 2015, and the company’s next moves are uncertain.
銅價跌至七年來的最低水平，自由港邁克墨倫公司第三季度錄得38億美元的虧損。去年，該公司的股價跌幅逾70%。在董事會的要求下，常務主席詹姆斯· R·莫菲特(James R. Moffett)於2015年底下了臺，該公司還不確定下一步該怎麼走。
Although companies are retrenching, they cannot completely retreat. Many new mines, for example, are designed to function at full capacity to keep them operating efficiently. And the sales are necessary to pay the debts incurred to build them.
儘管這些公司正在削減開支，項目卻不能完全放棄。例如，很多新礦是按滿負荷運轉來設計的，以便能高效運作。而要償付項目興建時欠下的債務，就得銷售產品。
At particular risk are coal mines in the United States, Australia, Indonesia and elsewhere. Not only is Chinese demand declining, but rising environmental concerns are also hurting their prospects.
風險特別大的是美國、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞等地方的煤礦。這不僅是因爲中國的需求在減少，而且日益突顯的環境問題，也令它們前景堪憂。
“Raw material producers invest according to current prices without realizing how those prices might affect future demand,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a consultancy. “Now that the demand is declining because of high prices, they have too much capacity, and once it’s built, you can’t unbuild it.”
“原材料生產商是根據現有價格來進行投資的，沒有意識到這種價格可能會對未來的需求產生怎樣的影響，”戰略能源和經濟研究公司(Strategic Energy and Economic Research)總裁邁克爾·C·林奇(Michael C. Lynch)說。“由於價格高企，目前需求正在下降，公司產能過大，而且項目建成之後，就無法逆轉。”
