從巴拿馬文件看全球避稅新動向

The war on rampant tax evasion may not be hopeless after all.

打擊猖獗逃稅行爲的戰爭也許並非毫無希望。

It might not look that way after an enormous leak of documents from a Panama law firm suggesting that prominent figures worldwide have used offshore companies to hide billions of dollars. The “Panama Papers,” as they are known, seemed to underscore how hard it is for national governments to collect the taxes they are owed.

剛剛發生的泄密事件或許讓這場戰爭的前景看起來很不樂觀。從巴拿馬的一家律師事務所泄露出來的大量文件顯示，世界各地的顯赫人物利用離岸公司藏匿了數以十億美元計的財富。所謂的“巴拿馬文件”似乎在強調，收取本屬於自己的稅金對各國政府而言是多麼困難。

Soon after the financial crisis of 2008, governments agreed to do more to crack down on offshore tax evaders. The eye-popping articles this week — including a report linking a musician friend of Vladimir Putin’s to offshore companies — imply that countries are still struggling to keep up. It is unlikely that any amount of international cooperation can stamp out tax evasion in countries where corruption is entrenched and leaders need ways to conceal their wealth. What is more, the financial industry is well practiced at finding ways around new rules.

2008年的金融危機過後，各國政府一致決定打擊離岸逃稅者。本週這些令人膛目結舌的文章——包括一篇把弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)的一個音樂家朋友和離岸公司聯繫起來的報道——表明，各國仍然難以遏制這種現象。在腐敗盛行、領導人需要找門路藏匿財富的國家裏，不論開展多少國際合作，都無法杜絕逃稅活動。更糟糕的是，金融行業非常善於鑽新法規的空子。

Yet there are signs of progress. And with a tougher legal line, and the introduction next year of new international data-sharing measures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the authorities are counting on lasting victories over the evasion industry.

不過也能看到進步的跡象。由於有了更爲嚴格的法律界限，再加上經濟合作與發展組織(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development，簡稱OECD)將於明年推行國際數據分享方面的新舉措，各國當局有望在打擊逃稅活動的戰場上取得持久的勝利。

Pascal Saint-Amans, director of the O.E.C.D.’s Center for Tax Policy, said it was significant that the documents came from Mossack Fonseca, a law firm that helps individuals set up offshore companies and is based in Panama. According to the O.E.C.D., Panama has not met its transparency recommendations, which could make it attractive to people leaving offshore centers in countries that did choose to comply with the O.E.C.D. measures.

OECD稅務政策負責人帕斯卡爾·聖阿芒(Pascal Saint-Amans)認爲，這些文件來自一個幫助個人開設離岸公司的律所莫薩克-馮塞卡(Mossack Fonseca)，而且這家律所是在巴拿馬，這一點具有重大意義。按照OECD的說法，巴拿馬並未達到OECD所提倡的透明度標準，這一點格外吸引某些人，他們正在離開選擇遵循OECD標準的那些國家裏的離岸中心。

“You have a drop in offshore business, but a concentration of the bad business in Panama,” Mr. Saint-Amans said.

“離岸公司的數量下降了，但在巴拿馬集中了不少壞公司，”聖阿芒說。

He added that, since 2011, around 20 governments have collected some $50 billion in additional taxes as a result of the anti-evasion efforts.

他還提到，自從2011年以來，對逃稅行爲的打擊讓大約20個國家的政府額外多出了500億美元的稅收收入。

Even the documents reported to be from Mossack Fonseca showed a decline in the number of offshore companies set up by the firm. Ten years ago, the number was around 13,200; in 2015 it was just over 4,300.

就連這些據說是從莫薩克-馮塞卡泄露出來的文件也顯示，該律所設立的離岸公司的數量正在下降。10年前約爲1.32萬家，2015年則剛剛超過4300家。

Gabriel Zucman, an assistant economics professor at Berkeley, urged caution about drawing any strong conclusions from the decline in Mossack Fonseca companies. “This is just one country,” said Mr. Zucman, the author of “The Hidden Wealth of Nations,” which explores how offshore centers have enabled tax evasion and tax avoidance.

伯克利的經濟學助理教授加布裏埃爾·祖克曼(Gabriel Zucman)強烈建議，不要一看到莫薩克-馮塞卡設立的離岸公司有所減少就妄下定論。“這僅僅是一個國家，”著有《列國的隱藏財富》(The Hidden Wealth of Nations)一書的祖克曼說。該書揭露了離岸中心如何讓逃稅和避稅成爲可能。

But he acknowledges that progress has been made. In 2010, Congress passed the Foreign Tax Compliance Act, which requires foreign banks to share information with the Internal Revenue Service about accounts of United States citizens, and imposes financial penalties if they don’t. Mr. Zucman has said that the law seems to have been a deterrent, contending, however, that countries continuing to hold out may need to face far tougher measures, like tariffs.

但他承認事情取得了進展。2010年美國國會通過了《海外賬戶納稅法案》(Foreign Tax Compliance Act)，該法案要求外國銀行與美國國稅局(Internal Revenue Service)分享美國公民的賬戶信息，不予配合者會受到經濟處罰。祖克曼一直表示，該法案似乎產生了一定的威懾性，不過他也主張針對繼續作壁上觀的國家實施更爲嚴厲的舉措，比如提高關稅。

The O.E.C.D., for its part, argues that its data-sharing initiative, once up and running, will be effective. Its program asks banks to share data on foreign clients, in theory enabling tax authorities to identify the actual person using an offshore account or company.

OECD方面認爲，它的數據分享項目一旦落到實處，就會見到成效。該項目要求銀行分享與外國客戶有關的數據，從理論上來說這可以讓稅務機構找出離岸賬戶或離岸公司的實際使用人。

Mr. Zucman is skeptical that the bankers will sufficiently comply. “They have been serving criminals and tax evaders — and they’ve being doing that for decades,” he said.

祖克曼懷疑銀行從業者並不會全力配合。“他們一直在爲罪犯和逃稅者服務——而且是幾十年如一日地這樣做，”他說。

But the crux of the new strategy is that the onus for detecting evaders will fall on the governments themselves — which will then have more information and presumably have the greatest incentive to claim the missing taxes.

不過，這一新策略的關鍵在於，查出逃稅者的責任落在了政府自己頭上——它們屆時會得到更多信息，而它們追討流失稅收的動力想必比任何人都大。