中國對美國出口下降4.7%

China’s exports to the US are set to fAll this year for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis.

中國對美國出口在今年將下降，這將是自全球金融危機最嚴重時期以來的第一次。

The value of merchandise imports from China has fallen 4.7 per cent, based on annualised data for the first 10 months of 2016, according to Standard Chartered.

據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)基於2016年前10個月的年化數據，中國出口美國商品價值下降了4.7%。

US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 45 per cent on goods from China, suggesting that exports to the US could decline still further in coming years.

美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)威脅要對中國商品徵收高達45%的關稅，表明未來幾年中國對美國的出口可能進一步下降。

Between 2010 and 2015, the country’s exports to the US rose at a compound annualised growth rate of 5.6 per cent.

2010年至2015年，中國對美國出口以5.6%的複合年增長率攀升。

Although the renminbi has fallen 5.9 per cent against the dollar so far this year, Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at StanChart, said the main culprit for the export slide was a decline in shipments of electronic goods.

儘管今年到目前爲止人民幣兌美元匯率已下跌了5.9%，但渣打高級美國經濟學家托馬斯.凱斯特(Thomas Costerg)表示，中國出口滑坡的罪魁禍首是電子商品發貨量下降。

Sales of mobile phones, tablets, laptops and related accessories to the US — which in 2015 were worth $130bn and represented almost a third of all merchandise exports to the US — have sunk in value by 4.8 per cent this year.

銷售至美國的手機、平板電腦、筆記本電腦及相關配件——2015年價值1300億美元，且佔到所有對美商品出口的幾乎三分之一——今年價值縮水了4.8%。

Clothing and footwear exports have fallen at far greater rates.

服裝及鞋類出口下滑更嚴重。

Footwear sales have slumped 14.4 per cent for the first 10 months of 2016 compared with the same period last year, and exports of apparel and clothing accessories are down 9 per cent to $27bn.

與去年同期相比，2016年的前10個月，鞋類出口暴跌了14.4%，服裝和服裝配飾的出口下降了9%，至270億美元。

Mr Costerg argues there is a long-term structural shift, with heightened competition from Vietnam and other low-wage Asian economies increasingly meaning Chinese goods are crowded out.

凱斯特稱，出現了一種長期的結構性轉變，來自越南及其他低工資亞洲經濟體的激烈競爭意味着，中國商品正日益被擠出去。

However, Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, believes China’s exports to the US will bounce back in dollar terms in the coming months.

然而，凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級亞洲經濟學家加勒思.萊瑟(Gareth Leather)相信，未來幾個月，中國對美國的出口（以美元計算）將出現反彈。