中國央行微調人民幣中間價計算公式

China’s central bank will change the way it guides the renminbi exchange rate, a move designed to enhance the government’s ability to prevent renminbi depreciation at a time when authorities are still concerned about capital flight.

中國央行將改變其引導人民幣匯率的方式，此舉旨在提高政府阻止人民幣貶值的能力。目前中國官方仍然擔憂資本外逃。

The People’s Bank of China permits the US dollar’s value against the renminbi to fluctuate by 2 per cent above or below a so-called “central parity rate” published each morning, also known as the midpoint or fixing. The midpoint is ostensibly formulated by compiling quotes from a group of dealer banks, but the price is understood to be largely determined by the central bank.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)目前允許人民幣兌美元匯率在每天早上公佈的所謂“中間價”上下浮動2%。這一中間價理論上是通過彙集一組做市商銀行的報價確定的，但據信在很大程度上由中國央行決定。

Under the revised formula announced on Friday, dealers will incorporate a “counter-cyclical adjustment factor” in their quotes, according to a statement on the website of the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, an industry body controlled by the PBoC.

由中國央行控制的行業機構——中國外匯交易中心(China Foreign Exchange Trading System)在官網發表聲明稱，根據週五宣佈的修訂後公式，中間價報價銀行將在其報價中納入“逆週期調節因子”。

“It’s easy for the market to be influenced by irrational expectations and spurred by inertia?.?.?.?magnifying the risk of over-correction of the market exchange rate,” CFETS said in the statement. “The main motivation is to hedge appropriately against the pro-cyclical fluctuation in market sentiment and alleviate the potential for ‘herd behaviour’ in the foreign exchange market.”

“當前我國外匯市場……容易受到非理性預期的慣性驅使……增大市場匯率超調的風險，”中國外匯交易中心在聲明中表示。“主要目的是適度對衝市場情緒的順週期波動，緩解外匯市場可能存在的‘羊羣效應’。”

In August 2015, the PBoC announced a change to the way it would formulate the midpoint, saying that the fixing would henceforth track on the previous day’s closing price in the spot market. In December 2015, it modified the formula, declaring that midpoint would also reflect changes in the renminbi’s value against a broad basket of global currencies.

2015年8月，中國央行宣佈將調整中間價形成機制，稱其將開始追蹤前一日現貨市場的收盤價。2015年12月，央行修改了公式，宣佈人民幣中間價還將反映人民幣兌一籃子全球貨幣匯率的變動。

CFETS noted on Friday that the US dollar has depreciated substantially in recent months, causing both variables in the fixing formula to push the midpoint weaker. The new counter-cyclical variable will prevent excessive one-way movement in such periods, the statement said.

中國外匯交易中心週五指出，美元在最近幾個月大幅貶值，導致中間價計算公式中的兩個變量都在壓低中間價。聲明稱，新的逆週期調節因子將在這類時期阻止過分單向變動。

In recent weeks, analysts had observed that the daily midpoint had begun to diverge from where their models predicted it should be based on the PBoC’s previously stated methodology.

近幾周來，分析人士已經觀察到，人民幣每日中間價已經開始偏離他們的模型預測，而模型是基於中國央行之前說明的方法。

“In general, this is designed to prepare some room to manoeuvre for future policy and a policy tool,” said Zhang Yu, head of overseas research at Minsheng Securities in Beijing.

“總體而言，這是爲了給未來的政策和政策工具準備一些空間，”民生證券(Minsheng Securities)在北京的海外研究部門負責人張瑜表示。

The renminbi weakened 6.5 per cent against the US dollar last year, its worst year ever, amid an unprecedented wave of capital outflows. But late last year, China tightened capital controls to curb downward pressure on the currency. That effort has largely succeeded, with the renminbi appreciating 1.2 per cent in 2017.

人民幣兌美元匯率去年下跌6.5%，是史上跌幅最大的一年，其背景是一股前所未有的資本外流浪潮。但去年末，中國收緊資本管制以遏制人民幣下行壓力。這一努力基本上取得了成功，2017年以來人民幣升值了1.2%。

China’s foreign exchange reserves have also risen for three straight months, a sign that renminbi stability is not primarily due to the PBoC intervening in the market to prop up the currency.

中國的外匯儲備也已連續三個月上升，這個跡象表明，人民幣穩定的主要原因並不是中國央行干預匯市以支撐其幣值。

It’s unclear if the change will have a bearing on the market. Currency traders have said that the influence of the daily fix has significantly decreased since the August 2015 policy change.

目前尚不清楚中間價形成機制的變化會不會對市場產生影響。外匯交易員表示，自2015年8月的政策變化以來，每日中間價的影響力已顯著降低。

Rather than the fix, it is active PBoC intervention in the market through buying and selling dollars that most strongly influences the renminbi exchange rate. The PBoC sold a net $280bn last year but activity has fallen to virtually zero in recent months, according to FT estimates based on official data.

目前對人民幣匯率產生最強烈影響的，不是中間價，而是中國央行通過買入和賣出美元來積極干預匯市。英國《金融時報》根據官方數據作出的估算顯示，中國央行去年淨出售2800億美元，但匯市干預活動在近幾個月已降低至幾乎爲零。