中國資產證券化市場狂野生長

Asset-backed securities still suffer an image hangover in the west from the days of the 2008 financial crisis. But China’s issuance of the financial products is soaring this year as Beijing places a big bet on securitisation as a salve for its huge credit risks. Though only a few years old, the Chinese debt securitisation market — in which pools of debt like Mortgages, auto loans and credit-card loans are repackaged and sold to investors — is growing like topsy. Issuance of securitised assets rose 61 per cent in the first half of this year and could climb to $170bn for the full year, according to research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

受2008年金融危機影響，資產支持證券(ABS)在西方仍不受待見。但今年以來，此類金融產品在中國的發行量大幅飆升——北京方面正大舉押注於證券化，把它作爲緩解國內巨大信貸風險的一個途徑。儘管形成僅幾年時間，中國的債務證券化市場——抵押貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡貸款等債務池被重新打包並出售給投資者——正如脫繮野馬般增長。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的研究顯示，今年上半年中國證券化資產的發行量同比增加61%，全年將攀升至1700億美元。

But are foreign investors ready to dive in? The answer appears to be a qualified yes. Given memories of how the US collateralised debt obligation (CDOs) market imploded 10 years ago, it is not surprising that foreign investors are cautious and generally avoid local issuers.

但外國投資者準備好進入中國這個市場了嗎？答案似乎不是百分百的肯定。鑑於人們對美國債務抵押債券(CDO)市場10年前的崩盤仍記憶猶新，外國投資者對本地發行方持謹慎態度並且大體上敬而遠之也就不奇怪了。

Nevertheless, car loan asset-backed securities issued by well-known international companies such as Volkswagen, Ford Motor and others are proving popular, analysts said. “Right now in asset-based finance in China, the area that foreign bond investors want to look at is foreign car manufacturers doing financing for auto loans,” said Alexander Batchvarov, managing director at BofA in London. “Currently this is giving a 5 to 8 per cent yield in renminbi. This is not a yield you can get anywhere in European investment grade bonds.”

不過，分析師表示，大衆汽車(Volkswagen)、福特汽車(Ford Motor)等國際知名企業發行的汽車貸款資產支持證券（車貸ABS）被證明很受歡迎。“目前，在中國以資產爲基礎的金融產品領域，外國債券投資者感興趣的，是外國汽車製造商爲汽車貸款所做的融資，”美銀美林駐倫敦董事總經理亞歷山大?巴切瓦洛夫(Alexander Batchvarov)表示，“目前，其帶來的人民幣收益率爲5%至8%。你購買歐洲哪一種投資級債券都得不到這樣的收益。”

Effectively, investors are putting their trust in the reputation of the US and European carmakers to ensure that due diligence on loan quality is being observed and transparency standards upheld. So far, while the Chinese economy continues to grow strongly, the rates of delinquency on such asset-backed securities are low, analysts said. Liquidity levels have also been helped by strong issuance. Total auto asset-backed securities issued in the first half of the year hit Rmb60bn, according to Standard & Poor’s.

實際上，投資者相信以美歐汽車製造商的信譽，應該能確保有關貸款質量的盡職調查以及透明度標準會得到履行。分析師說，到目前爲止，在中國經濟繼續保持強勁增長之際，此類資產支持證券的違約率很低。強勁的發行勢頭也有助於提升流動性水平。標準普爾(S&P)的數據顯示，今年上半年發行的汽車資產支持證券總額達到600億元人民幣。

The Chinese lionise people who are “first to eat the crab” — suggesting outsize rewards for those who take on challenges. At the moment, those rewards are going to investors in carmakers’ ABS. But if China’s economy was to suddenly cool — especially if car sales slowed sharply — investors could find that the crab starts to nip them.

中國人推崇“第一個吃螃蟹的人”，因此那些接受挑戰的人會獲得特別大的回報。當前，那些投資汽車製造商發行的資產支持證券的人就有望得到這樣的回報。但如果中國經濟突然降溫——尤其是如果汽車銷量大幅放緩——投資者可能會發現螃蟹開始夾自己的手了。