中國債市將迎來大量外資流入

Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds have jumped 50 per cent in the past two years as overseas investors have seized on Beijing’s push to open up its estimated Rmb73tn ($11tn) fixed-income market.

過去兩年，外國對中國債券的持有量增長了50%，海外投資者抓住了北京方面開放規模約爲73萬億元人民幣（合11萬億美元）的固定收益市場的機會。

But, if some commentators are to be believed, we have not seen anything yet.

但是，如果一些評論員的話可信的話，好戲還在後頭。

Despite the buying spree, foreigners still only held Rmb921bn of Chinese bonds in October, according to data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Citi, as the chart below shows.

根據中國社會科學院和花旗(Citi)的數據，儘管出現購買狂潮，10月份外國人的中國債券持有量仍只有9210億元人民幣，如下圖所示。

At just 1.86 per cent of the market, this is a smaller share (of an admittedly fast-growing market) than in early 2015.

市場份額僅爲1.86%，跟2015年初相比（在一個無疑是高速增長的市場上）佔比更低。

But inclusion in the world’s major bond indices, which some believe is more a question of “when” than “if”, could catalyse far greater flows.

但是，中國債券被納入全球主要債券指數——有些人認爲這只是“何時”而非“能否”的問題——可能刺激更大的資金流入。

Analysts at Citi estimate that China’s inclusion in the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate and London Stock Exchange Group’s World Government Bond Index would deliver additional inflows of $779bn by 2025.

花旗分析師估計，如果中國被納入摩根大通(JPMorgan)新興市場政府債券指數(GBI-EM)、彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數(Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate)和倫敦證券交易所集團(London Stock Exchange Group)的全球政府債券指數(WGBI)，到2025年將有7790億美元的額外資金流入。

About $250bn of this would come merely from passive investors, whose behaviour is easiest to predict, as shown in the table below.

其中約2500億美元來自被動投資者，其行爲最容易預測，如下表所示。

Rob Drijkoningen, head of emerging market debt at asset manager Neuberger Berman, sees potential for at least $250bn-$300bn to flood into China if and when it is included in the indices, noting that “some foreign investors are looking at larger allocations than the benchmarks would provide”.

資產管理公司Neuberger Berman新興市場債務負責人羅布?德里科寧根(Rob Drijkoningen)認爲，如果中國被納入上述指數，至少有2500億至3000億美元的資金可能會涌入中國。他指出，“一些外國投資者正在研究高於指數權重的配置”。

“We are very excited with the China opportunity. It’s a policy priority [for Beijing] to open up the capital markets,” adds Mr Drijkoningen, who says that Neuberger Berman is currently hiring credit analysts to beef up its fixed-income team in Shanghai in readiness for a fund launch next year.

“我們對中國的機會感到非常興奮。（對於北京方面來說），開放資本市場是政策優先，”德里科寧根補充道。他說，Neuberger Berman目前正在招聘信用分析師來充實其上海固定收益團隊，籌備明年推出一個基金。

China’s gradualist approach to opening up its bond market mirrors that for its mainland equities, which are due to be incorporated into the all-powerful MSCI Emerging Markets index for the first time in May, albeit at a relatively low initial weight.

中國逐步開放債券市場的做法，跟對待A股的做法類似。明年6月，中國A股將首次被納入強大的MSCI新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Markets index)，儘管初始權重相對較低。

Some foreign banks were granted access to the onshore interbank bond market in 2010. In February 2016, Beijing took a step further when it allowed mid- and long-term foreign institutional investors recognised by the People’s Bank of China to trade without prior approval or quota restrictions.

有些外資銀行於2010年獲准進入境內銀行間債券市場。2016年2月，北京方面進一步允許中國央行(PBoC)認可的中長期境外機構投資者進入該市場交易，不必經過事先批准，也不受配額限制。

In July of this year, it launched a Shanghai-Hong Kong bond connect programme, allowing foreign fund managers to trade in the interbank bond market without having to set up accounts onshore.

今年7月，中國啓動了連通內地與香港債市的“債券通”，允許外資基金管理公司無需在境內設立賬戶，就能在銀行間債券市場進行交易。

Mr Drijkoningen says that 200 funds are already using bond connect, a figure he expects to grow “exponentially”, while 282 foreign “commercial entities” and 63 sovereign wealth funds and central banks are active in the interbank market.

德里科寧根表示，已有200家基金在使用債券通——他預計這個數字將“呈現指數級增長”——而282個外國“商業實體”以及63家主權財富基金和央行在中國銀行間市場上表現活躍。

To date, however, these initiatives have not been met with promises of index inclusion by the guardians of the world’s major bond indices.

但是，迄今爲止，這些舉措還沒有得到世界主要債券指數提供商對於把中國債市納入其指數的承諾。

Bloomberg and Citi, which formerly ran the World Government Bond Index now operated by the LSE, opted instead for the “cheeky” approach, in the words of Mr Drijkoningen, of creating additional benchmarks that do include China.

但彭博和花旗選擇創建包括中國在內的新指數，用德里科寧根的話來說這種做法有點“無恥”。花旗曾經管理如今由倫敦證券交易所運營的全球政府債券指數。

Given the inertia of the fund management industry, however, “very few [investors] will normally choose the [new] benchmark,” says Mr Drijkoningen.

然而，鑑於基金管理行業的慣性，“正常情況下很少（投資者）會選擇新指數”，德里科寧根說。

Bloomberg says that it is not able to say how much money is tracking its new Global Aggregate + China and EM Local Currency Government + China indices.

彭博表示，目前還無法判斷追蹤其新的全球綜合+中國指數(Global Aggregate + China)和新興市場本地貨幣政府債券+中國指數(EM Local Currency Government + China)的資金有多少。

The LSE Group says that because its WGBI-Extended index, which includes China, is a new index “we don’t have much public data for AUM [assets under management] inflows at this stage”.

倫敦證券交易所集團表示，由於其包括中國在內的全球政府債券指數-擴展市場(WGBI-Extended)指數是一個新指數，“現階段我們沒有太多有關管理資產規模的公開數據”。

JPMorgan does include China in its CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, which is tracked by $90bn of assets and covers dollar-denominated corporate debt, but only because these bonds are issued under non-domestic law, are traded outside China and are settled by international clearing systems.

摩根大通將中國債券納入了其新興市場企業債券多元分散指數(CEMBI Broad Diversified Index)，該指數受到900億美元的資產追蹤，涵蓋以美元計價的企業債券，但是因爲這些債券是根據非國內法發行，因此在中國境外進行交易並通過國際清算系統完成結算。

However, Chinese bonds are still excluded from JPMorgan’s more widely followed GBI-EM Global Diversified index, although they are on “Index Watch” to be reassessed for eligibility in 2018.

然而，中國債券仍被排除在摩根大通受到更廣泛追蹤的全球新興市場多元化債券指數(GBI-EM Global Diversified)之外，不過被列入了指數觀察(Index Watch)名單，其納入資格將於2018年接受重新評估。

JPM says that while bond connect was a “positive step in providing offshore investors access to the local market?.?.?.?the platform needs to establish a track record sufficient for dedicated managers to replicate potential index exposure” before China could be included in the GBI-EM.

摩根大通表示，雖然債券通“是向海外投資者提供本地市場準入的積極步驟……但該平臺需要建立足夠好的業績記錄，以便專職管理機構可以複製潛在的指數投資”，然後中國纔可能被納入新興市場政府債券指數。

Investors also want the Chinese authorities “to explore ways to make the market scalable for foreign investors”, the bank adds.

摩根大通補充道，投資者還希望中國當局“探索如何使市場規模對外國投資者而言變得可擴展”。

The LSE Group, which plans to add China to its EM Government Bond and Asian Government Bond indices in February, says it does not have “a definite timetable” to review the country’s inclusion in its flagship WGBI, but adds that the subject “is kept under review in consultation with customers” and that “there will probably be another consultation in 2018”.

倫敦證交所計劃於明年2月把中國納入其新興市場政府債券指數(EM Government Bond)和亞洲政府債券指數(Asian Government Bond)。它表示，目前沒有評估何時把中國納入其旗艦指數全球政府債券指數的“明確時間表”，但補充稱該問題“正在徵求客戶意見”而且“可能會在2018年再次徵求意見”。

Mr Drijkoningen is hopeful that China will break into one of the flagship indices by late 2018 or mid 2019, albeit at a low weighting which is then gradually raised over the course of six to 12 months.

德里科寧根相信中國有望在2018年末或2019年年中成功打入旗艦指數之一，儘管剛開始權重較低，但會在之後6-12個月內逐漸提升。

“Having seen various reforms in China we are at the stage where the hard criteria are more or less met,” he argues.

他認爲，“在看到了中國多項改革後，我們目前正處於中國多多少少滿足了硬指標的階段。”

“If you are sticking strictly to the rule book you can make a case that inclusion is imminent, but index operators rely a lot on the feedback they get from investors. They want to see that the infrastructure that is in place is perfectly usable and is being used.”

“如果你嚴格遵循規則，你可以提出充分的理由來證明這些指數即將納入中國，但是指數運營商非常依賴他們從投資者那裏獲得的反饋。他們希望已經到位的基礎設施完全可以使用而且正在使用之中。”

Despite this caveat, Mr Drijkoningen says that when one of the big index providers decides that China has made the grade, “it will be hard” for the others to resist, meaning that foreign inflows could “snowball”.

儘管如此，但德里科寧根表示當大的指數提供商之一認定中國已經達到標準時，其他機構“將很難”抵抗，這意味着外資會像“滾雪球”一樣流入中國市場。

The eventual inclusion of China would create losers as well as winners, however, given that the addition of such a heavyweight market would reduce the weighting of other countries, meaning that they could see foreign investors cut their exposure as they readjust their books.

中國最終被納入各大指數，既會產生贏家也會有輸家，然而，鑑於納入如此重量級市場會降低其他國家的權重，這意味着這些國家可能看到外國投資者在調整投資配置時減持其債券。

China has a weighting of 5.3 per cent in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate + China Index, which includes 155 Chinese Treasury bonds and 232 bonds issued by the country’s state-owned “policy” banks, with a combined market value of $2.8tn.

中國在彭博全球綜合+中國指數中的權重爲5.3%。該指數覆蓋155支中國國債和232支由中國國有政策性銀行發行的債券，總市值達到2.8萬億美元。

Unsurprisingly, the Middle Kingdom’s weight in Bloomberg’s EM Local Currency Government + China Index is far higher still, at 37.8 per cent, elbowing smaller countries aside.

毫不意外的是，中國在彭博新興市場本地貨幣政府債券+中國指數中的權重高得多，達到37.8%，把較小國家擠到了一邊。

And while China accounts for 8.1 per cent of JPMorgan’s CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, it is almost certain to constitute 10 per cent of the JPM GBI-EM (the maximum allowable), if and when it gains entry.

同時，儘管中國在摩根大通新興市場企業債券多元分散指數中的權重爲8.1%，但如果中國被納入其新興市場政府債券指數，中國的權重幾乎必然會達到10%（允許的最大值）。

Brazil and Mexico, the two countries already at the 10 per cent cap, are likely to retain their weighting, meaning that the pain will be primarily felt by the countries just below this, such as Indonesia (9.6 per cent), Poland (9 per cent) and Thailand (8.1 per cent).

巴西和墨西哥已經達到了10%的上限，它們可能維持其權重，這意味着主要感受到痛苦的將是那些權重低於這一水平的國家，比如印度尼西亞(9.6%)、波蘭(9%)和泰國(8.1%)。

“Upon full inclusion [China] would substantially reduce the weight of other regions and countries in the benchmark,” says JPMorgan.

摩根大通表示：“完全納入（中國）將大大降低該指數中其他地區和國家的權重。”