羅斯柴爾德的王朝傳承

In recent years, critics of capitalism complained that Goldman Sachs alumni ran too many governments and central banks. Now they can return to an older target. Emmanuel Macron’s rise to become president of France is a reminder that Rothschild is still going strong after 200 years.

近幾年，批評資本主義的人士抱怨“高盛(Goldman Sachs)幫”把持了太多政府和央行。現在，他們可以把注意力重新投向一個更古老的靶子。埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)當選法國總統，提醒人們已有200年曆史的羅斯柴爾德（Rothschild，又譯爲“洛希爾”）依然強盛。

The dynasty no longer wields the power it did in the 19th century. But aMong boutique investment banks, its shares have performed almost as well as US rivals Moelis and Evercore since 2012, the year Rothschild brought together its French and British holding companies under one roof. Maintaining that momentum will be the job of Alexandre de Rothschild. He takes over from his father David as chairman of Rothschild & Co later this year, in banking’s most telegraphed succession.

羅斯柴爾德“王朝”不再手握19世紀時的那種權力。但自2012年（那一年羅斯柴爾德將其法國和英國控股公司併入同一家集團）以來，在精品投行中，羅斯柴爾德股票的表現幾乎與美國對手Moelis和Evercore一樣出色。維持這種勢頭將是亞歷山大?羅斯柴爾德(Alexandre de Rothschild)的大任。今年晚些時候，他將從父親戴維（David，文首圖左二）手中接過羅斯柴爾德集團(Rothschild & Co)董事長一職，這將是銀行業中消息傳得最廣的一次接班。

Three-fifths of profit comes from the global advisory franchise, where Mr Macron once plied his trade. It is already the sixth-biggest adviser by number of deals, but is conspicuously underweight in the US. Expanding there means competing with bulge-bracket rivals and boutiques on their own turf — challenging for a group that tends to hire individuals rather than expensively poaching whole teams.

羅斯柴爾德五分之三的利潤來自全球諮詢業務，馬克龍就曾在羅斯柴爾德從事這項業務。就羅斯柴爾德提供諮詢服務的交易數量來看，它已經是第六大諮詢商，但它的美國業務明顯薄弱。要在美國擴張，意味着羅斯柴爾德要與大型投行和精品投行在它們的主場上競爭——這對傾向於僱傭個人，而不是重金挖走整個團隊的羅斯柴爾德而言是一個挑戰。

Rothschild also wants to reduce its dependence on profitable but cyclical advisory work. It has two other divisions. Merchant banking is growing but small, with revenues just over a tenth of the advisory business. Wealth and asset management is potentially lucrative; the group is targeting a 20 per cent operating margin by 2020, compared with under 7 per cent now. But it is on the small side too, with assets of just 67bn. Franco-German Oddo BHF and the mid-sized Swiss private banks have over 100bn each.

羅斯柴爾德還希望減少對獲利豐厚但具有周期性的諮詢業務的依賴。該集團有其它兩項業務。商業銀行業務正在增長，但規模還很小，收入僅爲其諮詢業務收入的十分之一多一點。財富和資產管理業務可能有利可圖；該集團的目標是到2020年，把該業務的營運利潤率從目前的不到7%提高到20%。但在這個領域，羅斯柴爾德的體量也很小，其所管理的資產僅爲670億歐元。法德聯合經營的Oddo BHF和那些中等規模的瑞士私人銀行每家管理的資產都超過1000億歐元。

So too does Edmond de Rothschild, the Swiss-listed company chaired by Mr de Rothschild’s cousin. The two groups own small stakes in each other. But past disputes suggest the obvious course of action — combining the two — could take ages. Family control can foster inertia as well as longevity. No wonder the impatient Mr Macron went into politics.

愛德蒙德羅斯柴爾德(Edmond de Rothschild)也是如此，這家在瑞士上市的公司的董事長是戴維?羅斯柴爾德的遠親。這兩家集團互相持有對方的少量股份。但過去的爭端表明，顯而易見的方案——將二家合二爲一——可能需要花很長時間。家族控股可能讓企業長盛不衰，也可能助長惰性。難怪不耐煩的馬克龍進入了政界。