Sliding Backwards 伊拉克在走下坡路

AT LEAST 100 Iraqis perished on July 23rd in 30-plus bombings and shootings in no fewer than 18 towns across the country. It was the deadliest set of co-ordinated attacks in a single day for at least two years. In a statement online the day before, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi, called for Iraq's Shia-led government under Nuri al-Maliki to be toppled. Ordinary Iraqis of all sectarian stripes dread the intensification of a terrorist campaign by Sunni jihadists. But even more do they dread the possible resumption of the sectarian mayhem between Sunni and Shia Muslims that devastated the country between 2005 and 2007.

7月23日，伊拉克全國各地不下18座城鎮發生30餘起爆炸和槍擊事件，造成至少100名伊拉克人喪生。這是兩年多來在單日內發生的最致命的一系列連環襲擊。此前一天，基地組織在伊拉克的領導人阿布巴克爾·巴格達迪（Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi）在網上發表聲明，呼籲推翻由努瑞·馬利基（Nuri al-Maliki）控制的伊拉克什葉派政府。所有宗教派系的普通伊拉克人都在擔心遜尼派聖戰分子製造的恐怖活動加劇。但他們更加害怕的是，2005年至2007年間對國家造成嚴重破壞的遜尼派穆斯林和什葉派穆斯林之間的教派混戰可能會重新爆發。

The spreading violence in Syria, which many Iraqis view as a specifically Sunni rebellion against a regime dominated by an offshoot of Shia Islam, is causing consternation in Iraq. As Syrian rebels seize border posts, Iraqi refugees who once fled from their homeland are returning. When American troops were still in Iraq, Syria was the main haven for al-Qaeda insurgents infiltrating into Iraq to attack the infidel occupier. Now the regimes of Bashar Assad in Syria and Mr Maliki in Iraq both find themselves targets of Sunni jihadists.

敘利亞持續蔓延的暴力在伊拉克造成恐慌，許多伊拉克人將其視爲是一場針對由伊斯蘭教什葉派分支控制政權的遜尼派叛亂。隨着敘利亞反對派控制邊防哨所，曾經逃離家鄉的伊拉克難民正在迴歸祖國。在美國軍隊駐紮伊拉克期間，基地組織武裝分子滲透入伊拉克襲擊異教徒佔領者，而敘利亞是他們的主要避難所。現在，敘利亞的阿薩德政權和伊拉克的馬利基政權發現自己都成了遜尼派聖戰分子的襲擊目標。

But Mr Maliki, who has been in charge since 2006, is opposed not just by Sunni jihadists. Many moderate Iraqis, both Shias and Sunnis, fear he is heading down a path to dictatorship. The political atmosphere is toxic. No meaningful legislation, apart from an annual budget, has been passed for several years. One of the country's two vice-presidents, Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, is being tried in absentia for alleged links to terrorism. Iraq's Kurds are increasingly divorced from the rest of the country: their regional government has now signed 48 oil contracts without the consent of the national government in Baghdad, which is infuriated. Meanwhile people in the capital and other towns, suffering sweltering temperatures during the fasting month of Ramadan, are frequently bereft of electricity. There have been angry mass protests in Basra, the main town of the south, against dire public services.

然而對於自2006年以來一直掌權的馬利基而言，反對者不僅僅是遜尼派聖戰分子。許多立場溫和的伊拉克人，包括什葉派和遜尼派，擔心他將走向獨裁。政治氛圍異常詭譎。數年來，除了年度預算外，沒有通過任何有意義的法案。該國兩位副總統之一，遜尼派的塔裏克·哈希米（Tareq al-Hashemi）因被控與恐怖主義有染而正被缺席審判。伊拉克的庫爾德人日益與該國其他地方分離：在沒有取得巴格達國家政府同意的情況下，他們的地方政府已經簽署了48項石油合約，這令巴格達大爲光火。與此同時，首都和其他城鎮的民衆在齋月期間忍受着高溫悶熱天氣，卻經常被切斷電力供應。在南部重鎮巴士拉（Basra），有憤怒的羣衆抗議糟糕的公共服務。

However, Mr Maliki is still managing to shore up support, mainly among his fellow Shias, who make up a good 60% of the population. One of the Kurds' two main leaders, Jalal Talabani, the country's president, who wants to sustain the status quo by keeping Mr Maliki in place, has ensured that parliament does not have a chance to vote on a no-confidence motion.

然而，馬利基仍然在設法爭取支持，主要是爭取他的什葉派同胞，其足足佔了60%的人口。庫爾德人的兩個主要領導人之一，該國總統賈拉勒·塔拉巴尼（Jalal Talabani）想要保住馬利基的權位以維持現狀，他已經作出保證，議會不會有機會對不信任動議案進行投票表決。

Iyad Allawi, a secular Shia who heads the main Sunni bloc in parliament and is Mr Maliki's chief opponent there, has been weakened by defections from his party. Meanwhile, Mr Maliki has authorised a review of the terms under which army officers from the era of Saddam Hussein were sacked after his fall; though many of them are Sunnis, they might back Mr Maliki if he were to reinstate them. Otherwise he fears they may be drawn into a new Sunni insurgency, perhaps even one led by al-Qaeda.

伊亞德·阿拉維（Iyad Allawi）是領導議會中主要遜尼派集團的一名世俗什葉派，並且是馬利基的首要反對者，然而黨內倒戈已經削弱了他的力量。與此同時，馬利基已經授權重新審查涉及屬於薩達姆時期而在他倒臺後被解僱的那些軍官的相關條款；儘管他們當中有許多人是遜尼派，但如果馬利基能夠恢復他們的地位，他們也許會支持馬利基。否則，馬利基擔心他們可能會被拉進一場新的遜尼派叛亂，或許甚至是由基地組織領導的叛亂。

Muqtada al-Sadr, a populist Shia cleric with a big following in Baghdad's Shia districts and elsewhere, remains a wild card in the power game. After spending the past few years in Iran supposedly engrossed in scholarship, he is back in Iraq. He has consorted with Kurdish leaders and with Mr Allawi, issuing ultimatums telling Mr Maliki to reform or go. Mr Maliki has so far made no effort to accommodate him. But unless he reaches out beyond his core Shia constituency, the bloodshed of July 23rd may be the harbinger of wider and more menacing sectarian strife.

民粹主義什葉派教士穆克塔達·薩德爾（Muqtada al-Sadr）在巴格達的什葉派地區和及其他地方擁有大批追隨者，他仍然是權力遊戲中的一個不確定因素。過去幾年他一直待在伊朗，據說是一心撲在學術研究上，現在他回到了伊拉克。他一直與庫爾德領導人及阿拉維往來緊密，還發布最後通牒要馬利基要麼改革要麼下臺。到目前爲止，馬利基一直沒有爲接納他的觀點作出過任何努力。但如果馬利基的勢力不能觸及到他的核心什葉派選區以外，那麼7月23日的流血事件就可能成爲更廣泛，更殘酷教派衝突的預兆。