蓋茨 2035年世界上將沒有貧窮的國家

As snowy Davos becomes engulfed in the hustle and bustle of another World Economic Forum, Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates took the opportunity to deliver an upbeat message in his annual newsletter. The 25-page report, written by Gates and his wife Melinda, who are co-chairs of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, argued that the world is a better place than it has ever been before. Gates predicted that by 2035, there would be almost no Poor countries left in the world, using today's World Bank classification of low-income countries — even after adjusting for inflation.

微軟創始人、世界首富比爾·蓋茨近日在接受採訪時表示，到2035年世界上將幾乎沒有貧窮的國家，那些貧窮的國家將會從富裕的鄰國夥伴們的創新受益。 “到那個時候幾乎所有的國家將會成爲中低收入國家或者更爲富有的國家。貧窮的國家會從周圍最具生產力的鄰國身上學習經驗，並且受益於他們的創新，比如新的疫苗、優質的種子以及數字變革。而他們本身的廉價的勞動力、鼓勵政策以及逐步普及的教育都會吸引更多的投資者。到2035年絕大多數的國家都會比現在中國的人均收入要高。”

"Poor countries are not doomed to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed," he said in his annual note, published on Tuesday. "I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world." Gates — who remains a part-time chairman of Microsoft — added that by this point in time, almost all countries will be "lower-middle income" or richer. Countries will learn from their most productive neighbors and benefit from innovations like new vaccines, better seeds, and the digital revolution, he said. "By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Extreme poverty rates have been cut in half in the past 25 years. Child mortality is plunging. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient," he said.

“到時候將會有超過70%的國家的人均收入超過現在的中國人民的人均收入，而接近90%的國家的人均收入會趕上並超過現在的印度人民的人均收入。”蓋茨說富裕國家和貧窮國家之間的差距將會慢慢地由中國、印度、巴西等一些國家填補。從1960開始，中國的人均收入翻了8倍，印度的升了4倍，巴西也幾乎上漲了5倍。比爾·蓋茨還稱當前存在三大誤區阻礙了全球發展：窮國將永遠窮下去；外國援助是極大的浪費；拯救生命會導致人口過剩。

The three biggest myths, according to Gates, are that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is a big waste and that saving lives leads to g data from academics, the World Bank and the United Nations, he makes the opposite case — arguing that the world is getting better.

“那些認爲世界正變得越來越糟糕，我們不能解決貧窮以及疾病問題都是誤解，並且有很大的危害，”蓋茨寫道。"不管通過什麼標準衡量，世界都在不斷地變好。很明顯在接下來的二十年裏也會變得更好。"