印度製造被基礎設施拖了後腿

Yogesh Mahansaria, chief executive of Mumbai-headquartered Alliance Tire, would make a good frontman for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” campaign. And it certainly needs one.

如果讓總部位於孟買的聯盟輪胎(Alliance Tire)的首席執行官約格什•馬汗薩里亞(Yogesh Mahansaria)，來做印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)推出的“印度製造”(Make in India)運動的代言人，那將是個很好的選擇。並且這場運動確實需要一個代言人。

When Mr Modi launched the initiative some months ago, he left many people unclear about what it actually meant. To some, it is simply an amorphous rallying cry, rather than an attempt to achieve real change on the ground. To others, it is a variation on the Gandhian theme of Swadeshi — at the time, a sort of shorthand for “do not buy Manchester cloth, buy Indian instead” (never mind that Indian fabric was far more expensive back then).

當莫迪在幾個月前推出該計劃時，很多人不清楚其真正的意圖。對一些人而言，這只是一個空洞的口號，而不是要努力實現真正的變化。對另一些人而言，這是甘地發起的抵制英貨運動Swadeshi的另一個版本，當年那場Swadeshi運動的內容是“不要買曼徹斯特的布料，買印度的”（儘管當時印度布料的價格要貴得多）。

To one Japanese official based in Delhi, the campaign is more specifically about persuading Indians not to buy Chinese imports of everything from smartphones to steel.

對於駐德里的一位日本官員而言，這場運動更具體來說是說服印度人不要購買從中國進口的任何商品，從智能手機到鋼材。

But, right now, it is not obvious that India can show a competitive advantage in the manufacturing of anything. Indian infrastructure remains a huge constraint. Power in most states is in short supply, ports are clogged, railways have inadequate freight capacity and the roads are even worse. Many infrastructure companies are on the verge of going bust because government-owned entities, such as the National Highway Authority of India, do not pay their bills and then contest court cases for years. Their creditor companies therefore cannot repay their banks, and the banks themselves become less willing to lend.

但就目前而言，還沒有明顯跡象顯示印度能否在製造業的任何領域表現出競爭優勢。印度的基礎設施仍是一個巨大的制約因素。多數邦的電力供應短缺，港口阻塞，鐵路運力不足，公路狀況更糟。很多基礎設施企業瀕臨倒閉，因爲印度國家公路局(National Highway Authority)等政府所有的實體機構不繳付賬單，然後打了多年的官司。因此，它們的債權人企業無法償還銀行貸款，銀行變得更不願放貸。

In addition, few Indian companies have genuine economies of scale, and poor productivity often offsets the theoretical advantage of cheap labour.

另外，印度企業幾乎都沒有實現真正的規模經濟，生產率低下往往讓理論上的廉價勞動力優勢化爲烏有。

To make matters worse, China, with its massive and excess capacity, has changed the economics of manufacturing worldwide. Producer prices in China have been in deflationary territory for three years. Few manufacturers anywhere in the world today have real pricing power. Trade has also been virtually flat for three years. It is possible that the east Asian model of growth through the export of “value-added” manufactured goods is dead.

讓情況變得更糟的是，擁有大規模過剩產能的中國改變了全球的製造業經濟學。3年來，中國的生產者價格指數一直處於通縮。如今，全球無論任何地區的製造商幾乎都沒有真正的定價權。3年來，貿易也一直近乎持平。東亞通過“增值”製成品出口推動增長的模式可能已破產。

If so, that would block the path to a middle-class lifestyle for masses of unskilled workers, from Dalian to Detroit to Delhi. Increased use of technology and robots is already constraining new job creation. But if jobs cannot be created, India’s “demographic dividend” of a young population becomes a curse.

如果是這樣的話，這將切斷大量低技能員工過上中產階級生活的道路，從大連到底特律到德里。科技和機器人的應用擴大，已經在抑制新就業崗位的增加。但如果無法創造就業，印度年輕的人口結構帶來的“人口紅利”反而將成爲禍害。

So far, countries such as Vietnam have able to take advantage of rising wages in China more effectively than they have in India — even though the Indian market, with a middle class that is larger than the entire population of Vietnam, should be a magnet for foreign investors. It is only very recently, however, that US and Japanese carmakers — including Ford, Nissan and Toyota — have begun to heed Mr Modi’s Make in India call.

儘管中產階級人口比越南總人口還要多的印度市場理應成爲吸引外國投資者的磁石，但迄今爲止，越南等國一直比印度更能有效地利用中國薪資上漲帶來的契機。直到最近，福特(Ford)、日產(Nissan)和豐田(Toyota)等美國和日本汽車製造商，纔開始響應莫迪“印度製造”的呼聲。

To succeed against the odds in India requires a nuanced strategy and a big dose of hope. Mr Mahansaria of Alliance Tire has both. He knows he is in a business that should become yet another victim of the huge economies of scale in China, where almost 20m cars are sold annually. So he knows he cannot compete against the Chinese. Instead, he focuses on niches that are too small to be of interest to them: he makes customised tyres (2,000 models in all) for agricultural and construction vehicles, supplying multinationals such as Caterpillar. These tyres require a high level of engineering, which plays to India’s strength: its elite universities produce some of the most skilled engineers on the planet.

印度要排除萬難取得成功需要一種細緻的戰略和宏大的願望。聯盟輪胎的馬汗薩里亞這兩個都有。他知道，中國每年的汽車銷量高達近2000萬輛，擁有巨大的規模經濟效應，應該會讓他所處的行業成爲另一個犧牲品。因此，他知道他不可能與中國人競爭。他轉而關注於規模太小、中國人不感興趣的“利基”領域：他爲農業和建築車輛生產定製輪胎（共2000個型號），供應給卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)等跨國企業。這些輪胎對工藝水平要求很高，而這恰好可利用到印度的優勢：該國的一流大學培養出了全球一些技能最爲高超的工程師。

Mr Mahansaria opened his first plant in Tamil Nadu and, two years ago, he was bemoaning the fact that he had to be in the power business as well — because of the perennial deficit of power in that southern state. Today, the generators he had installed are only infrequently switched on. Instead, he can take advantage of energy exchanges and small private plants that have recently opened.

馬汗薩里亞在位於印度南部的泰米爾納德邦(Tamil Nadu)開辦了第一家工廠，兩年前，他還在抱怨，因爲這個邦常年電力供應不足，自己不得不進入電力行業。如今，他當年安裝的發電機已很少開動了。他可以利用最近開辦的能源交易所和小型私營工廠。

“The government is bankrupt,” he says. “They are finally allowing the private sector to fill the gap.” Similarly, his second and newest plant, in Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat, has access to newly constructed private sector ports that make the process of exporting far easier.

“政府面臨破產，”他表示，“他們終於允許私營部門來填補空白了。”類似的，在莫迪的家鄉古吉拉特邦，馬汗薩里亞的第二家、也是最新建成的工廠，可以利用新建的私營港口，大大方便出口流程。

Indeed, Mr Mahansaria is considering switching his focus to opportunities in the domestic market, for the very first time. “The health of global markets is a big concern,” he says. “Only three countries — India, the UK and the US — are doing well. The other 117 have their own challenges. Today, we are asking if India can be 5 per cent to 10 per cent of our revenues in the next five years instead of 1 per cent to 2 per cent.”

實際上，馬汗薩里亞正頭一次考慮將他的關注點轉向國內市場上的各種機遇。“海外市場的健康狀況非常令人擔憂，”他表示，“眼下只有3個國家表現不錯，印度、英國和美國。其他117個國家都面臨各自的挑戰。如今，我們在考慮，未來5年，印度能否佔到我們營收的5%至10%，而不是1%至2%。”

Now it is up to Mr Modi to not disappoint businessmen like Mr Mahansaria.

如今，要讓馬汗薩里亞這樣的商人不失望，就看莫迪的了。