如傢俬有化 要約報價其實不高

Hotels are hot. Global investors have been buying them up like a business traveller with a company card.

酒店炙手可熱。全球投資者都在搶購酒店，就像拿着公司的卡消費的商務旅行者一樣。

Last week, US-listed Chinese hotelier Homeinns became the latest target. A consortium including management, Shanghai-listed BTG Hotels and US-listed Ctrip proposes to take the company private. The offer price, a one-fifth premium to the undisturbed price, values the company at 20 times next year’s earnings.

上週，在美國上市的中國酒店運營商如家(Homeinns)成爲了最新的目標。一個由如家管理層、在滬上市的首旅酒店(BTG Hotels)以及在美上市的攜程(Ctrip)組成的財團，向該公司發出了私有化要約。其報價較消息公佈前最近20個交易日的平均收盤價高出20%，對如家的估值爲其下一年預期盈利的20倍。

This might seem generous. Shares in international hoteliers trade at similar levels and appear to have a better outlook; bullishness towards the global sector comes in large part from the surge in Chinese travelling abroad rather than at home. Last year, they made over 100m trips overseas, up more than tenfold since 2000. There is room for more: relative to their population, Chinese still travel overseas far less than their neighbours, according to CLSA research.

該報價看起來也許算是慷慨。國際酒店運營商的預期市盈率差不多也是這個水平，而且似乎還擁有更好的前景；市場對全球酒店業的看漲情緒在很大程度上源自於中國出境遊人數激增、而非國內遊。去年，中國出境遊人次超過1億，爲2000年的10倍多。而且，中國出境遊還有增長空間：里昂證券(CLSA)的研究顯示，相對於總人口而言，中國的出境遊人次仍然遠低於鄰國。

Stock performance reflects this contrast. Over the past 24 months, US-listed Marriott International and Starwood Hotels have returned 91 and 33 per cent respectively. Homeinns has delivered just 6 per cent, even after the post-bid bump. Disappointed holders of the Chinese operator might be tempted to throw in the towel.

股價表現就反映了這種反差。過去24個月，萬豪國際(Marriott International)和喜達屋酒店集團(Starwood Hotels)的股價分別上漲了91%和33%。而即便加上在私有化要約發出後的漲幅，如家的股價也僅僅上漲了6%。失望的股東們也許會忍不住想放棄。

This would be shortsighted. The market for domestic travel in China has potential, too. A mere tenth of China’s population hold passports, according to official data. The campaign against flashy spending further favours staying at home. Still more interesting is the premium at which China listed peers such as Shanghai Jinjiang International (40 times) and Jinling Hotel (103) trade.

要真這麼做，就是目光短淺了。中國國內遊市場也頗具潛力。官方數據顯示，目前只有十分之一的中國人持有護照。抵制炫耀性消費的運動也對國內遊有利。更有意思的是，錦江股份(Shanghai Jinjiang International)和金陵飯店(Jinling Hotel)等在國內上市的同行的估值要高出不少，錦江和金陵的市盈率分別爲40倍和103倍。

These multiples may of course simply reflect China’s raging domestic bull market. Still, with such a large discrepancy, the Homeinns buyers are getting a very cheap deal for Chinese assets. The sellers should hold out for more.

當然，這些倍數可能只是反映了中國國內牛市的勢頭之猛。不過，既然存在如此大的估值差異，如家的買家可以說是在以非常低廉的價格購買中國資產。賣方應堅決要求更高的報價。