中國煤炭消費量被顯著低估 China's coal consumption higher than thought

China’s coal use this century has been significantly underestimated, according to analysis of new Chinese data by the US Energy Information Administration, adding to climate change negotiators’ problems ahead of December’s UN conference in Paris.

據美國能源情報署(EIA)對中國最新發布數據的分析，本世紀中國的煤炭消費量被顯著低估，這使氣候變化談判代表們在今年12月巴黎聯合國氣候大會前面臨更多問題。

Based on revised data released by Beijing this summer, the EIA has concluded that the world’s largest polluter and consumer of coal burnt up to 14 per cent more of the fossil fuel between 2000 and 2013 than previously reported. It said this meant China’s energy consumption and production were also much higher.

根據北京方面今年夏天發佈的修正數據，EIA得出結論，在2000年到2013年間，全球最大的污染國和煤炭消費國燃燒的煤炭量高出之前報告的數值至多14%。該機構表示，這意味着中國的能源消費量和產量也要高得多。

The EIA’s analysis squares with the supercharged economic growth of the decade before 2013 and much slower growth now but throws into confusion the calculations on which climate change negotiators rely to determine the level of emissions produced by each nation. Talks this December in Paris will attempt to rein in those emissions, in the hopes of preventing dangerous global warming.

EIA的分析與中國的增長情況相符：2013年之前的10年期間，中國經濟高速增長，現在則緩慢得多。但這項分析也讓氣候變化談判者賴以確定各國排放水平的計算陷入了混亂。今年12月的巴黎氣候談判將試圖遏止這些排放，希望防止危險的全球變暖。

The fact that China has made GDP figures a political target has resulted in a remarkably smooth growth path, which critics say obscures the real cycles in the Chinese economy. Higher energy consumption from 2000-2013 would tally with other indicators of an economy that grew more quickly than official figures over that period suggest, including high commodity prices, a boom in coal mining and the proliferation of private mines and smelters.

中國將國內生產總值(GDP)數據設定爲政治目標，這種做法讓中國的增長軌跡極爲平順，批評者稱這掩蓋了中國經濟的真實週期。2000年至2013年間能源消費量更高，與其他一些表明中國經濟在此期間比官方數據增長更快的指標吻合，包括高昂的大宗商品價格、煤礦業的繁榮以及私營煤礦和冶煉廠的大量出現。

Similarly, the motivation to hit targets may mask the extent of the current economic slowdown. A reported drop in China’s coal output in 2014 has cheered environmentalists, including Greenpeace, and raised hopes that the country’s emissions might peak and begin to decline before the official target of 2030.

類似的，達到目標的動機也可能掩蓋當前經濟放緩的程度。2014年中國報告煤炭產量下降，曾讓綠色和平(Greenpeace)等許多環保主義者感到振奮，令人期待中國的排放量或許能夠早於官方提出的目標——2030年之前見頂回落。

The EIA’s analysis also concluded that growth in coal use was slowing dramatically. “In 2014, energy-content-based coal consumption was essentially flat”, while coal production fell by 2.6 per cent, it said.

EIA的分析還得出一個結論，煤炭消費量的增長正在大幅放緩。該機構稱，“根據能量含量來計算，2014年中國的煤炭消費量基本持平”，同期中國的煤炭產量下降了2.6%。

Last month a study in the journal Nature argued that Chinese emissions were actually lower than estimated by international institutes, because of incorrect assumptions about the quality of Chinese coal. The authors said emissions were overestimated despite assuming the country’s actual coal consumption was 10 per cent higher than Chinese government data showed.

上個月，科學期刊《自然》(Nature)的一篇論文主張，因爲對中國煤炭品質的假設有誤，中國的碳排放量實際低於國際機構的估算結果。那篇論文的幾名作者表示，即使假設中國使用了比官方統計數字多出10%的煤炭，中國的排放量依然被高估。

However, the revised Chinese statistics on which the EIA’s analysis is based indicate that energy released through coal consumption edged up slightly in 2014 compared with 2013, reflecting a greater proportion of higher-quality coal in the mix as dropping prices cut out the lowest-quality suppliers.

然而，EIA的分析所依據的修正後統計數據表明，通過燃燒煤炭所釋放出的能量在2014年同比小幅上升，反映出隨着煤炭降價淘汰了一些最低品質煤的供應商，高品質煤在能源結構中的比重有所提升。