中國重工業之困 China's rust belt looks to slash jobs

Memories of the 1990s are haunting China’s rust-belt cities as strapped state-owned employers look at cutting jobs, with Wuhan Iron & Steel the latest company said to be laying off thousands of workers.

上世紀90年代的記憶正在困擾中國的鐵鏽地帶（rust-belt，指衰落的老工業地帶——譯者注）城市。資金拮据的國有僱主考慮採取裁員行動，據悉武漢鋼鐵(Wuhan Iron & Steel)是最新一家裁減大批工人的國企（編者注：據武鋼官方微信“幸福武鋼”消息，武鋼集團表示，目前並沒有“裁員”）。

The dismantling of market pricing reforms and the “iron rice bowl” system of life-long jobs in the 1990s eliminated thousands of state-owned small or medium-sized enterprises, which specialised in everything from industrial boilers to wedding photographs. SOEs now account for about a third of China’s productive capacity and an even smaller portion of urban employment, even though in some smaller cities they still dominate.

90年代，市場化定價改革和“鐵飯碗”終身就業制度使數以萬計的國有中小企業倒閉，此前這些企業經營着從工業鍋爐到婚紗照的各行各業。如今國企佔中國生產力的大約三分之一，占城鎮就業的比例更小，即便國企在某些較小城市仍占主導地位。

Since then, years of precipitous growth and cheap state-backed credit have left many sectors of the Chinese economy bloated on debt and unprepared for a downturn. Heavy industry has been particularly hard hit by the sharp drop in prices for coal, energy, iron ore and steel.

自90年代以來，多年迅猛增長和國家支持的廉價信貸使中國經濟中的很多部門積累沉重債務，並且對低迷沒有準備。近期，隨着煤炭、能源、鐵礦石和鋼材價格大幅下滑，重工業受到格外沉重的打擊。

The biggest SOEs typically employed hundreds of thousands of workers until a debt crisis and economic slowdown in the late 1990s forced millions of workers into early retirement on meagre pensions. Twenty years later, many remain the largest employers and taxpayers in their cities, still employing tens or even hundreds of thousands despite mounting debt burdens and collapsing prices.

曾幾何時，最大型的國有企業往往僱用數十萬工人——直到90年代後期的一場債務危機和經濟放緩迫使數以百萬計的工人提前退休，領取微薄的養老金。20年後，這些國企仍是所在城市最大的僱主和納稅人，仍然僱用數萬甚至數十萬工人，儘管債務負擔越來越重，儘管產品價格不斷下降。

Chinese media this week said Wuhan Iron & Steel, one of China’s largest mills, would lay off up to 11,000 workers, although the producer has denied the plans. The reports follow an announcement in October of 100,000 lay-offs at Longmay, a state-owned coal miner near the Siberian border.

中國媒體本週報道稱，中國最大鋼廠之一武漢鋼鐵將裁員多達1.1萬，儘管該企業否認了裁員之說。有關武鋼裁員的報道發表之前，靠近西伯利亞邊境的國有煤炭企業龍煤(Longmay)今年10月宣佈裁員10萬。

While small SOEs have mostly vanished, the biggest have bulked up on state-backed loans as Beijing tried to create national champions . The Rmb4tn stimulus unleashed after the global financial crisis resulted in “blind investment” by the SOEs, according to Hu Xingdou, a professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology.

儘管小型國有企業大多消失了，但在北京方面創建國家冠軍企業的努力推動下，最大的國企近年藉助國家支持的貸款發展壯大。據北京理工大學(Beijing Institute of Technology)教授胡星斗介紹，全球金融危機爆發後北京方面釋放的4萬億元人民幣刺激資金導致了國有企業的“盲目投資”。

Beijing has orchestrated mergers of big, centrally owned state groups but local governments are reluctant to take the next step of slashing employment rolls or shutting down excess capacity that could trigger debt defaults.

北京策劃了大型央企的合併，但地方政府不願邁出可能引發債務違約的步子，進行大舉裁員或關停過剩產能。

The talk of downsizing at Wuhan Steel comes after a decade in which it consolidated smaller mills in central China, built a state-of-the art new mill in southern China and fought off attempts by state-owned Baosteel in Shanghai to dominate its market. But now steel prices have dropped and China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed Deng Qilin, the irascible former chairman who in happier times enjoyed chain-smoking his way through long interviews with journalists.

過去10年期間，武鋼兼併了華中地區一些規模較小的鋼廠，在中國南方打造了一家先進的新鋼廠，並挫敗了位於上海的國企寶鋼(Baosteel)主導市場的企圖。但現在鋼材價格已經下降，武鋼的前董事長鄧崎琳也已在中國的反腐敗鬥爭中落馬；在經營較好的時期，脾氣暴躁的鄧崎琳在接受記者們的長時間採訪時一根接一根地抽菸。

Reports of lay-offs at Wuhan Steel recall steps perfected in the 1990s such as forcing “early retirement” of older or female workers, or spinning off non-core businesses to local governments. Sporadic protests have hit some depressed cities but the country has so far avoided the mass demonstrations that roiled the industrial north-east two decades ago.

有關武鋼裁員的報道讓人聯想起90年代就已相當完善的措施，如強迫年齡較大的職工或女職工“提前退休”，或者剝離非核心業務，由地方政府接手。一些經濟不景氣的城市出現了零星抗議活動，但中國迄今避免了20年前東北重工業地帶爆發的大規模示威。