聖誕隨想 找到感恩的理由

When the headlines are dominated by heart-rending events such as refugee crises and terrifying ones like mass shootings, it can be difficult to carry on the holiday tradition of giving thanks. It becomes easier, though, when we get past the immediacy of the news and examine some important trends in the world.

當媒體頭條充斥着難民危機等令人悲痛的事件和大規模槍擊等恐怖新聞時，我們很難保持作感恩禱告的節日傳統。不過，當我們越過這些眼前的新聞，把目光投向當今世界的一些重要趨勢，感恩就會變得容易。

We recently learnt, for example, that global greenhouse gas emissions are likely to decrease in 2015, thanks in large part to a slowdown in Chinese growth and to faster-than-expected progress with clean technologies such as wind and solar. This downturn might be reversed in coming years, especially if India and other developing countries continue to grow along their current high emissions trajectory, but it’s still good news. As I wrote here before, it’s part of a wonderful trend visible across many environmental indicators. In important ways, we are learning to tread more lightly on our planet.

比如，最近我們瞭解到，2015年全球溫室氣體排放量可能會減少，在很大程度上得益於中國增長放緩，以及風能和太陽能等清潔能源技術的發展快於預期。這一趨勢在未來幾年內可能發生逆轉，尤其是如果印度和其他發展中國家沿着當前的高排放軌跡發展的話，但這仍然算是好消息。正如我以前撰文指出的，這是在許多環保指標上可見的可喜趨勢的一部分。在一些重要方面，我們正開始學會更加小心謹慎對待自己的星球。

We are also lifting more people more quickly out of dire poverty than ever before. Careful evidence compiled by Max Roser as part of his invaluable Our World in Dataproject shows that even as the world’s population has increased greatly over the past 25 years, the total number of people living in extreme poverty has plummeted. This autumn, the World Bank reported that less than 10 per cent of the world’s population now live on less than $1.90 a day (as measured in 2011 dollars, adjusted for purchasing power parity). In 1990, the equivalent figure was more than 35 per cent.

我們也在以空前快的速度讓更多人脫離赤貧。馬克斯圠澤(Max Roser)在他極具價值的項目“Our World in Data”中彙編的翔實數據顯示，過去25年裏，即使世界人口大幅增加，但赤貧人口總數直線下降。今年秋天，世界銀行(World Bank)稱，如今世界不到10%的人口每天的生活費低於1.90美元（按2011年美元幣值計算，經過了購買力平價調整）。1990年，這個比例高於35%。

How was this unprecedented increase in prosperity accomplished? You’d be hard pressed, I think, to attribute it to anything except some combination of better government, smarter interventions, increasing globalisation and technological progress. Everyone has their thoughts about the relative importance of these four factors. My own view is that the last two — trade and technology — should get most of the credit. And technology helps not only by facilitating trade, but also by directly improving people’s ability to earn a living and manage their finances.

這種前所未有的繁榮程度提高是如何實現的？我認爲，除了更好的政府、更明智的干預、更高的全球化程度和技術進步的綜合作用以外，你很難把它歸因於其他因素。每個人對於這四個因素的相對重要性有着自己的看法。我認爲，後兩者——貿易和技術——應該是最重要的因素。技術不僅爲貿易提供了便利，而且直接提高了人們謀生和理財的能力。

My favourite demonstration of how simple new technology helps people earn more, even before smartphones and apps show up, is a study the economist Robert Jensen conducted between 1997 and 2001, when the region of Kerala, India, got mobile phone coverage for the first time. Mr Jensen studied how the region’s fishermen used the new communication technology, and how their economic lives changed as a result.

對於簡單的新技術如何幫助人們提高收入——甚至在智能手機和應用(app)問世之前——我最喜歡的例子是經濟學家羅伯特礠森(Robert Jensen)在1997年至2001年之間進行的一項研究，那時印度喀拉拉邦(Kerala)首次開通了手機網絡。詹森的研究展示了該地區的漁民如何利用這一新的通信技術，以及他們的經濟狀況由此發生了何種變化。

His findings were clear: “The adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion, the complete elimination of waste, and near-perfect adherence to the Law of One Price. Both consumer and producer welfare increased.” In short, things got a lot better, and they did so quickly. Mr Jensen’s work reveals that time after time the benefits appeared right after the phones did. It’s one of the clearest demonstrations of cause and effect I’ve seen in the social sciences.

他的研究發現十分清楚：“手機在漁民和批發商中間的普及，與價格離散的顯著降低、浪費的完全消除以及一價定律近乎完美的體現存在着關聯。消費者和生產者的利益都得到了增進。”簡言之，生活變得美好得多，而且改觀得非常快。詹森的研究表明，在很多情況下，手機出現後很快就產生效益。這是我在社會科學領域看到的最清晰的因果關係之一。

Once the world’s poorest finally have a bit of money, new technologies are helping them save it and put it to use. The World Bank reports that in 2014 62 per cent of the world’s adults had some kind of financial account. As recently as 2011, that figure was barely over 50 per cent. And the nature of these accounts is changing rapidly. In Sub-Saharan Africa 64m adults have mobile electronic money, and 45 per cent of them have nothing else — no traditional banking account. Across the developing world more than 65 per cent of those within a financial network use it often, depositing money and making or receiving payments at least three times a month.

一旦世界最窮羣體終於有了一點錢，新技術就開始幫助他們儲蓄，並把錢派上用場。世行報告稱，2014年世界62%的成年人擁有某種金融賬戶。就在不那麼久之前的2011年，這個比例勉強高於50%。這些賬戶的類型在飛速變化。在撒哈拉以南非洲地區，6400萬成年人擁有移動電子貨幣，其中45%的人沒有其他賬戶——沒有傳統的銀行賬戶。在整個發展中世界，只要是在某個金融網絡的服務範圍內，就有65%的人經常使用金融服務，每個月存錢以及收付款至少三次。

There is a great deal still to be done for financial inclusion. The gender gap remains large, and billions of adults are still outside any formal system. But the recent trends make me very optimistic. They convince me that we will continue to make rapid progress, and that the world’s poorest will see their prospects improve like never before in history.

我們在金融包容方面仍大有可爲。性別差異仍然巨大，數十億成年人仍在任何正規體系的門外。但近年的趨勢讓我感到樂觀，它們讓我相信，我們將繼續取得快速進步，世界最窮羣體將看到自己的生活前景發生史上從未有過的改觀。

Let’s be thankful for that.

讓我們爲此感恩。