揹債走出去的中國國企 China's world of debt
The warnings are clear for ChemChina. The company behind China Inc’s biggest outward investment bid will be hoping to avoid the unhappy experiences suffered by some of the country’s earlier trailblazers.
對中國化工(ChemChina)來說，警示信號很清楚。作爲“中國公司”(China Inc)史上最大對外投資的發起者，這家企業將希望避免中國一些早期開拓者的不愉快經歷。
The state-owned oil company Cnooc, for example, ran into problems after it paid a record $15bn in 2013 for Nexen, one of Canada’s largest oil firms. Cnooc began with good intentions, paying a 60 per cent premium to Nexen’s share price, only to suffer from the prolonged slump in global oil prices. A huge pipeline spill and a retreat from promises to safeguard Canadian jobs — it fired senior Nexen executives and laid off hundreds of staff — have further dented goodwill around the deal. Investments by other Chinese stalwarts have also hit turbulence, falling at regulatory hurdles or unravelling for commercial reasons.
比如，2013年國有的中海油(Cnooc)付出創紀錄的150億美元收購加拿大最大石油公司之一尼克森(Nexen)後遭遇了麻煩。中海油一開始懷着良好的意願，以高出股價60%的報價買下了尼克森，卻想不到遭遇全球油價的持續低迷。一起大規模管道泄漏事故和中方未能信守諾言保障加拿大的工作崗位——尼克森數名高管被解僱，數百名員工遭裁員——進一步削弱了圍繞這筆交易的良好意願。其他中國國有企業的投資也遇到了麻煩，或是跨不過監管方面的障礙，或是因爲商業原因不了了之。
“Chinese investment overseas is a double-edged sword,” says Derek Scissors, of the American Enterprise Institute. The outward embrace of China Inc raises a series of challenges for target companies and countries, he adds. Common problems arise from a mismatch of regulatory systems, a clash of corporate cultures and commercial miscalculations.
“中國的海外投資是一把雙刃劍，”美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的史劍道(Derek Scissors)說。他補充道，“中國公司”的海外投資給目標企業和國家帶來了一系列挑戰。常見問題源自監管制度不同、企業文化衝突和商業方面的誤判。
China is not alone in having deals that hit problems — it happens to US and European companies also. But increasingly the issue for Chinese deals is debt. Analysts say that a surge in the indebtedness of corporate China since 2009 has meant that many of its largest companies are looking for acquisitions abroad while dragging behind them mountains of unpaid loans and bonds.
在交易方面遇到問題的並非只有中國——美國和歐洲企業也會遇到這種問題。但債務日趨成爲中國企業所做交易的問題所在。分析師們表示，自2009年以來中國企業負債激增，這意味着尋求海外收購的許多中國最大型企業揹負着沉重的未償貸款和債券。
ChemChina, which is offering $44bn for Syngenta, the Swiss agrichemical giant, is a case in point. Its total debt is 9.5 times its annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda), putting it into the “highly-leveraged” category as defined by Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency.
出價440億美元收購瑞士農業化工巨擘先正達(Syngenta)的中國化工就是一個很好的例子。該公司總債務達到息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(Ebitda)的9.5倍，使其屬於評級機構標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)所定義的“高槓杆”類別。
This, say analysts, highlights the nature of ChemChina’s planned acquisition before even a cent has been paid. The proposed deal is not between two commercial businesses but between the Chinese state and a Swiss company.
分析師們表示，這一點在收購款項支付之前就突顯出此次收購的性質。這筆擬議中的交易並不是兩家商業企業之間的交易，而是中國這個國家和一家瑞士公司之間的交易。
“Bids like that by ChemChina are backed by the state,” Mr Scissors says. “There is no chance a company as heavily leveraged as this would be able to secure this level of financing on a commercial basis.
“類似於中國化工這樣的報價是有國家支持的，”史劍道表示，“一家如此高槓杆的公司不可能在商業基礎上爭取到這種規模的融資。”
“If your financials are out of whack with every commercial company on the planet then you can call yourself commercial but you are not,” he adds.
“如果你的財務狀況和世界上每一家商業公司都不一致，你能說自己是一家商業公司，但你其實不是，”他補充道。
Debt is the word
b>債臺高築
The issue with debt is by no means confined to ChemChina. The median debt multiple of the 54 Chinese companies that publish financial figures and did deals overseas last year was 5.4, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Many would be regarded as “highly leveraged”.
債務問題絕不僅限於中國化工。根據標準普爾全球市場情報(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的數據，54家公佈財務數據並在去年進行過海外交易的中國企業的債務對Ebitda的中值倍數達到5.4。很多公司會被視爲“高槓杆”。
Some companies are almost off the chart. Zoomlion, a lossmaking and partially state-owned Chinese machinery company that is bidding for US rival Terex, has a debt multiple of 83; by comparison Terex’s is 3.6. China Cosco, a state-owned shipping company, is seven times more indebted than Piraeus Port Authority in Greece, which it bought for 368.5m last month.
一些公司的債務倍數驚人。部分國有的虧損機械公司中聯重科(Zoomlion)目前正以33億美元洽購美國對手特雷克斯(Terex)。該公司的總債務爲Ebitda的83倍；相比之下，特雷克斯的債務僅爲Ebitda的3.6倍。國有航運公司中遠控股(China Cosco Holdings)上月以3.685億歐元收購希臘比雷埃夫斯港務局(Piraeus Port Authority)，前者的負債程度是後者的7倍。
The state-owned Cofco Corporation, which recently reached an agreement with Noble Group, the commodities trader, under which its subsidiary Cofco International would acquire a stake in Noble Agri for $750m, has debts equivalent to 52 times its ebitda.
國有的中糧集團(Cofco)近期與大宗商品貿易商來寶集團(Noble Group)達成了一項協議。根據該協議，中糧集團的子公司中糧國際(Cofco International)將以7.5億美元收購中糧來寶(Noble Agri)股份。中糧集團的總債務爲其Ebitda的52倍。
The debt question is becoming more pressing as China’s outward investment turns from a trend into a boom. Last year, Chinese companies invested an estimated $110bn abroad, up 16 per cent in 12 months, according to data from AEI and the Heritage Foundation, two US think-tanks.
隨着中國的海外投資從一種趨勢變爲一股熱潮，債務問題變得越來越緊迫。根據兩家美國智庫——美國企業研究所和美國傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation)的數據，中國企業去年對海外投資估計達到1100億美元，在12個月裏增長了16%。
The Rhodium Group, a Hong Kong consultancy, estimates that the M&A portion of these outward investments is set to soar this year to $97bn, up from $60.8bn in 2015. Such numbers pale against Beijing’s longer-term ambitions: Li Keqiang, the premier, has said that China will invest $1tn over the next five years making it the second largest outward investor after the US. It is currently fourth placed.
香港的榮鼎諮詢(Rhodium Group)估計，這些海外投資中的併購部分今年將從2015年的608億美元攀升至970億美元。這些數字在北京方面的長期抱負面前顯得黯然失色：中國總理李克強表示，未來5年，中國將對海外投資1萬億美元，成爲僅次於美國的第二大海外投資國。目前中國排在第4位。
“If we do not see reforms in China’s financial system that led to greater capital discipline among state-owned enterprises, there is a significant risk of a political backlash against Chinese overseas acquisitions,” says Thilo Hanemann, head of research at Rhodium.
“如果我們沒有看到中國金融系統的改革促使國有企業展現更強的資本紀律，中國的海外收購就會面臨遭遇政治反彈的顯著風險，”榮鼎諮詢研究主管韓其洛(Thilo Hanemann)說。
“Observing the situation in the Chinese market, recipient countries are rightly concerned about the misallocation of investment, the crowding out of healthy private sector companies and a distortion of asset prices. These concerns are becoming acute now that China has become one of the top global investors.”
“觀察到中國市場的狀況，投資目的地國家會很自然地擔憂種種問題，包括投資分配不當、排擠健康的私營企業，以及扭曲資產價格。隨着中國成爲全球最大投資者之一，這些擔憂正變得日漸嚴重。”
There is a lengthening list of deals that have gone wrong. They are not isolated incidents. About one quarter of all Chinese outbound deals, worth $270bn once construction contracts between 2005 and 2015 are included, have hit “trouble” — defined as deals that have hit lengthy delays, big cost overruns or outright failure — according to data from the two think-tanks. This is most pronounced in the resources and finance sectors.
出了問題的海外交易的列表正在變長。它們不是孤立的事件。根據上述兩家智庫的數據，中國所有的海外交易中，約有四分之一都遇到了“麻煩”——漫長拖延、成本大幅超支或者完全失敗。如果算上2005年到2015年的建築合同，這些交易的總價值達到2700億美元。這種情況在資源和金融業最爲突出。
The problem is stark. Many of the state-owned companies projecting Chinese corporate power overseas are so indebted that it would be difficult or impossible for them to raise a bank loan in a market economy.
問題很突出。向海外投射中國企業實力的許多國企債臺高築，如果是在市場經濟下，它們會很難或者不可能申請到銀行貸款。
“These companies are not viable without state funding,” says one dealmaker in London, who asked to remain anonymous. “Can they possibly be good owners for these companies they are acquiring? I think that is something the regulators are looking at.”
“這些企業沒有國家資助是撐不下去的，”一名要求匿名的倫敦交易撮合者表示，“他們有沒有可能成爲他們收購的這些公司的好東家？我認爲這是監管者關注的事情。”
Dealmaking
交易撮合
Chinese state-owned acquirers often seem motivated by non-commercial impulses, which complicates matters. By carrying out directives to “go out and buy” businesses that fit with Beijing’s industrial policy, state-owned companies and even a few of their private counterparts win kudos in the Communist party hierarchy. That helps them tap into official largesse, such as approval for expansion plans and backing from state banks and capital markets.
中國國企的收購似乎經常出於非商業性衝動，令情況更加複雜。國企甚至少數民營企業通過執行“走出去”的指示，迎合了中國政府的產業政策，贏得了各級共產黨領導的讚賞。這有助於它們獲得政府的大力支持，比如擴張計劃獲批，並獲得國有銀行和資本市場的支持。
“State-owned enterprises have high incentives to increase their size, and they use plans outlined by [government agencies] as weapons to expand both domestically and internationally,” says Victor Shih, professor at University of California San Diego. “The bigger they are, the more political weight and more room for rent-seeking can be enjoyed by senior management.”
美國加利福尼亞大學聖迭戈分校(University of California at San Diego)的史宗瀚(Victor Shih)教授表示：“國有企業在擴大規模方面有着極大動力，它們會利用（政府機構的）規劃作爲武器，在國內和國際上進行擴張。它們的規模越大，國企高管們獲得的政治影響力和尋租空間也就越大。”
Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California, raises a series of concerns. “People should ask whether such acquisitions are made with non-economic motives and whether China’s acquirers have the capacity to manage these large, complex and innovative firms [like Syngenta].”
美國加州克萊蒙特麥肯納學院(Claremont McKenna College)政府學教授裴敏欣提出了一連串擔憂：“人們應該問一問，這樣的收購是否出於非經濟動機？中國收購方有沒有能力管理好這些大型、複雜和創新的企業（比如先正達）。”
With revenues of $45bn last year, ChemChina is the country’s largest chemical company. Ranked 265 on the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest companies, it employs more than 140,000 people, two-thirds inside China and is directly administered by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Sasac, however, is a relatively weak body. It plays second fiddle to the ruling Communist party’s organisation department and anti-graft watchdog which both exercise more influence over hiring and firing in state enterprises. So long as executives at Sasac-administered firms help advance core national interests, they are given operational freedom.
中國化工是中國最大化工企業，去年收入450億美元。在全球財富500強(Fortune Global 500)榜單上排在第265位，員工逾14萬人，其中三分之二在中國境內，由國務院國資委(SASAC)直接管理。但國資委是一個相對較弱的機構，地位低於執政的共產黨的組織部和紀委，後兩者對國企的僱傭和解僱擁有更大影響力。只要國資委下屬企業的高管在幫助增進國家核心利益，他們就能獲得經營自由。
Few have been more skilled at playing this game than ChemChina’s chairman, Ren Jianxin. At the other end of the SOE spectrum are smaller companies such as Zoomlion or Haier, which recently paid $5.4bn for General Electric’s appliance unit. Both have strong ties to local governments but not necessarily Beijing.
在這個遊戲上，沒幾個人比中國化工董事長任建新更熟練了。國企行列的另一端是一些規模較小的公司，如中聯重科和海爾(Haier)，海爾最近斥資54億美元收購了通用電氣(General Electric)的家電業務。這兩家公司與當地政府關係密切，但與北京方面未必如此。
The Syngenta transaction gave ChemChina and Mr Ren a key role in the country’s overseas food security strategy. Fitch upgraded ratings for one of the group’s biggest units on the basis that its parent was of “great strategic importance to China”. It mentioned its contribution to China’s crop protection sector, leadership in chemical material supply to national aerospace projects and its championing the speciality chemical industry.
收購先正達讓中國化工和任建新在中國的海外糧食安全戰略中獲得了關鍵角色。惠譽(Fitch)提高了對中國化工旗下一家大型企業的評級，理由是其母公司對“中國具有巨大的戰略重要性”。惠譽提到了中國化工對中國作物保護領域的貢獻，是國家航空航天項目的主要化工原料供應商，而且是特種化工行業的領軍者。
Food security
糧食安全
In addition to this eclectic mix, ChemChina also has a tyre division that last year paid 7.3bn for Italy’s Pirelli. What appears to some analysts as a sprawling conglomerate without a focus is, from its creditors’ perspective, a company that has established itself as a key player with a penchant for landing trophy assets in strategic sectors.
除了上述衆多業務外，中國化工旗下還有一家輪胎企業，該公司去年斥資73億歐元收購了意大利的倍耐力(Pirelli)。在一些分析師眼裏，這是一家沒有焦點的龐大企業集團，但從其債權人的視角看，該公司善於在戰略行業斬獲令人矚目的資產，在這方面確立了自己的關鍵地位。
“Chinese overseas projects are meant to elevate the country’s international reputation,” says Gilliam Hamilton, China research analyst at NSBO. “The government, and by extension SOEs, therefore prefer large, headline-grabbing mega-projects such as rail lines in Thailand, in South America and the Syngenta deal to smaller deals.”
NSBO中國研究分析師吉列姆漢密爾頓(Gilliam Hamilton)說：“中國的海外項目是爲了提升本國的國際聲譽。因此相對於規模較小的交易，中國政府及相關國企更喜歡搶眼的大型項目，比如在泰國、南美洲的鐵路線，以及先正達這樣的交易。”
Consequently it is not just Chinese state banks that are happy to lend to companies such as ChemChina, but large western ones too. Implicit state backing for ChemChina and other SOEs’ debt, as noted by Fitch last year, reduces their perceived credit risk to lenders.
這一切的結果是，不僅中國的國有銀行樂於貸款給中國化工等企業，連西方的大型銀行也如此。惠譽在去年指出，中國化工和其他國企債務隱含的國家支持，降低了它們在貸款機構眼裏的信用風險。
To secure its agreement with Syngenta, ChemChina received $30bn in acquisition financing from China’s Citic Securities and $20bn from HSBC. It then plans to sell equity stakes in Syngenta and issue long-term debt -— bankers working with the company say they are being flooded with requests to participate in the financing.
爲確保與先正達達成協議，中國化工獲得了中信證券(Citic Securities) 300億美元的收購融資，以及匯豐銀行(HSBC)的200億美元。中國化工還計劃出售先正達的股權，併發行長期債務。與中國化工合作的銀行家表示，他們接到了希望參與融資的大量請求。
What is music to the ears of ChemChina’s creditors can sound like alarm bells in Washington.
中國化工債權人耳中的音樂，在華盛頓聽上去可能更像是警鐘。
“China has systematically blocked regulatory approvals of foreign-developed biotech seeds, resulting in billions of dollars in losses for companies like Dow, DuPont, Monsanto and Syngenta,” says one US executive who tracks China deals closely. “[China] has said explicitly that foreign companies will not dominate China’s seed market. Now you have a Chinese SOE acquiring one of those foreign companies.”
一位密切跟蹤中國交易的美國高管表示：“中國系統化地阻止監管部門批准國外研製的生物技術種子，導致陶氏化學(Dow)、杜邦(DuPont)、孟山都(Monsanto)和先正達等公司損失數十億美元。中國已明確表示，外國公司不會主導中國種子市場。現在卻恰恰有一家中國國有企業收購了這些外國公司中的一家。”
The executive suspects that if the ChemChina deal is completed, “Syngenta’s seeds will ultimately receive preferential regulatory approval by Chinese authorities, further undermining the fortunes of Dow, Dupont, Monsanto and Bayer.”
這名高管懷疑中國化工最終能否完成這筆交易：“先正達的種子最終將獲得中國監管機構的優先批准，進一步破壞陶氏、杜邦、孟山都和拜耳(Bayer)的商機。”
In Switzerland few such concerns have been raised about China Inc snapping up a Swiss national champion. Some argue the risk of job losses and other disruption would have been a greater had the company been bought by one of its international peers, such as Monsanto.
在瑞士，很少有人對中國企業收購該國的一家國家冠軍企業提出此類擔憂。一些人辯稱，如果這家公司是被孟山都之類的國際同業收購，裁員和其他干擾的風險將會更大。
Johann Schneider-Ammann, the Swiss president, pronounced ChemChina’s offer “a good deal”. Last year, Italian politicians and workers broadly welcomed Mr Ren’s purchase of Pirelli for the same reason.
瑞士總統約翰施耐德-安曼(Johann Schneider-Ammann)稱，中國化工的報價是“一筆劃算的交易”。去年意大利的政治人士和工人們出於同樣的原因普遍歡迎任建新拍板收購倍耐力。
Still, Chinese bidders have miscalculated. Last month, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US blocked a seemingly innocuous $3.1bn sale of a lighting unit from Philips, the Dutch conglomerate, to a Chinese consortium. The US body has the power to review and potentially block transactions that might harm the country’s national security. A planned $23bn bid for chipmaker Micron by Tsinghua Unigroup, the Chinese state-owned semiconductor business, never got off the ground last year, in part because it was believed the deal would hit a regulatory brick wall. With that in mind, ChemChina has said it will voluntarily submit its deal for Syngenta to Cfius for review.
話雖如此，中國競購方還是有誤判的時候。上月，美國外國投資委員會(Committee on Foreign Investment in the US)阻止了飛利浦(Philips)一筆貌似無關痛癢的交易，這家荷蘭集團欲以31億美元將照明業務出售給一箇中國財團。該美國機構有權審查並阻止可能危害國家安全的交易。去年中國國有半導體企業清華紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)曾計劃以230億美元收購美國芯片製造商美光科技(Micron Technology)，結果根本未能啓動，部分原因是這筆交易據信無法越過監管障礙。考慮到這一點，中國化工已經表示，將自願向美國外國投資委員會提交先正達交易，請求審批。
“No one is going to ask many questions [about Chinese outbound deals] unless they are clearly a security risk or could be construed as such,” says one veteran China dealmaker. “Otherwise anybody should be able to buy anything they want as long as they are paying over the odds.”
一位資深的中國交易撮合者表示：“沒人會（對中國對外交易）問太多問題——除非交易存在明顯的安全風險，或者可能被這樣認爲。否則任何人都能買到他們想要的任何東西，只要他們的報價夠高。”
