最令人緊張的"撲克牌遊戲"正在朝鮮半島上演
The world’s Most fascinating – and unnerving – game of poker is taking place on the Korean peninsula. The problem is no one has seen the Korean Kid play before.
The game started out pretty routinely. In December Kim Jong-eun got things started by casually tossing a missile launch on the table. Barack “Pivot” Obama raised him with a UN Security Council resolution. The Kid brought out a nuclear test, and was raised by fresh sanctions.
遊戲的開局相當的俗套。去年12月，金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)漫不經心地把一張“導彈發射牌”扔到牌桌上，啓動了整個牌局。巴拉克•“重心”•奧巴馬（Barack “Pivot” Obama，此處的“Pivot”指奧巴馬把美國戰略重心轉向亞太的標誌性舉措——譯者注）以一張“聯合國安理會決議牌”壓過了金正恩的牌。“朝鮮小子”又打出一張“核試驗牌”，他的對手則以一張“新一輪制裁牌”壓過。Since then the bets have come thick and fast. Mr Obama has thrown in B-2 and B-52 bombers. Mr Kim, in charge of North Korea since December 2011, has declared a “state of war” with South Korea and asserted his right to a pre-emptive nuclear strike. This week he raised the stakes still further. He warned foreigners to leave Seoul in case of a “thermonuclear war” and closed the Kaesong industrial park, one of his country’s few sources of foreign exchange. To many that smacked of unhinged irrationality, the equivalent of betting your wedding ring on a feeble hand.
自那之後，雙方的下注越來越大，也越來越快。奧巴馬擲出一張“B-2和B-52轟炸機牌”。而2011年12月起執掌朝鮮的金正恩對此的迴應則是宣佈與韓國進入“戰爭狀態”，並堅稱自己有權發動先發制人的核打擊。本週，金正恩進一步加大了籌碼。他一方面警告外國人離開首爾以免遭遇“熱核戰爭”，另一方面關閉了開城工業園區這個朝鮮屈指可數的外匯來源之一。在許多人看來，這些舉動有點精神錯亂、失去理性的味道，相當於把結婚戒指押在一手弱牌上。
The trouble in all of this is that no one knows the Kid’s “tell”. He may be a lousy novice. Alternatively, he may be some kind of poker genius.
整件事的麻煩之處在於，沒人知道“朝鮮小子”出牌的“路數”。他或許是一位差到極點的新手。或者與此相反，是某種撲克天才。Seoul is calling Mr Kim’s bluff. Most ordinary South Koreans are unfazed by the antics from the North. They have seen them many times before – mostly without much consequence. Just to be sure, President Park Geun-hye – also new at the table – has given South Korea’s armed forces permission to respond to any attack without political consideration.
首爾方面認爲金正恩是在虛張聲勢。多數韓國老百姓並不把朝鮮的古怪行徑放在心上。這樣的行爲他們以前見得多了，多數時候都不了了之。爲以防萬一，新上牌桌的韓國總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)已授權韓國軍隊可不考慮政治後果對朝鮮發動的任何攻擊予以還擊。The rest of the world is rather more rattled. The west sees an inexperienced leader in Pyongyang who needs to consolidate his power at home by proving his mettle in a diplomatic facedown. Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, warns that a “small miscalculation or misjudgment may lead to an uncontrollable situation”.
世界其餘地區卻被這一牌局攪得心神不寧。西方認爲，朝鮮領導人缺乏經驗、需要通過在外交對抗中證明自己的勇氣來鞏固自己在國內的權力。聯合國祕書長潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)警告說，即使是“小小的誤算或誤判，也可能導致不可收拾的局面”。In the latest edition of Foreign Affairs, Keir Lieber, an associate professor at Georgetown University, and Daryl Press, associate professor at Dartmouth College, argue that “the risk of a nuclear war with North Korea is far from remote”. While the chances are that Mr Kim is bluffing, they say, a conventional war could quickly turn nuclear since the young and frightened leader might see no other hope of staying in power but escalation.
在最新一期《外交》雜誌(Foreign Affairs)上，喬治城大學(Georgetown University)副教授基爾•利伯(Keir Lieber)和達特茅斯學院(Dartmouth College)副教授達里爾•普雷斯(Daryl Press)主張，“與朝鮮爆發核戰的可能性絕非微乎其微”。他們表示，雖然金正恩確有可能在虛張聲勢，但如果這位惴惴不安的年輕領導人認爲只有讓戰爭升級才能保住自己的權力，那麼戰事可能很快就會從常規戰爭演變爲核戰爭。Several months ago Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, a leading scholar on North Korea, predicted that Mr Kim would act pretty much as he has done. He would pile provocative act upon provocative act – possibly to the point of causing loss of life in South Korea – until he won some kind of concession.
幾個月前，研究朝鮮問題的知名學者、韓國國民大學(Kookmin University)的安德烈•蘭科夫(Andrei Lankov)曾預言，金正恩未來採取的行動會與以往頗爲相似。他會推出一個又一個挑釁行動（甚至可能給韓國造成人員生命損失），直到對手作出某種讓步爲止。Mr Lankov’s prediction, chillingly accurate so far, is doubly worrying. First, it suggests Mr Kim could go so far as to provoke Seoul militarily, say with an action like the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan naval vessel, which cost 46 South Korean lives. Seoul did not respond that time, but if something similar happened again, Ms Park would be almost obliged to take retaliatory action. The challenge would be to act proportionately in a way that did not quickly escalate the crisis. Second, and nearly as worrying, Mr Kim has given little indication that he can be bought off. In the past Pyongyang has played its role of “extortionary state” to perfection, says Mr Lankov. It has behaved badly until it has got something – money, food aid, oil or a seat at the negotiating table. This time, though, Mr Kim appears to have rejected any such overtures before they are made. He has declared North Korea’s nuclear status non-negotiable. With a nuclear climbdown explicitly excluded, it will be very hard for the west to make any concessions.
蘭科夫的預言（迄今爲止可謂驚人的準確）令人倍感擔憂。首先，這一預言暗示金正恩可能會走到對韓國展開軍事挑釁的地步，比如說採取類似於2010年擊沉韓國海軍“天安艦”(Cheonan)的行動。在天安艦事件中，韓國方面有46人喪生。當時，首爾方面沒有予以反擊，但如果類似的事件再次發生，朴槿惠極有可能被迫採取報復行動。這裏面困難的地方在於，要把握好行動的分寸、以免危機迅速升級。第二點幾乎同樣令人擔憂，那就是金正恩幾乎沒顯露出任何他能被買通的跡象。蘭科夫表示，過去，朝鮮把“勒索國家”的角色演繹到了極致。它會不斷展開挑釁，直到得到某種利益——金錢、糧食援助、石油或談判桌上的席位——爲止。而這一次，金正恩似乎搶在有關各方作出任何友好表示之前就拒絕了此類示好。他已申明朝鮮的核地位不容談判。朝鮮如此公開地排除在覈問題上讓步的可能，令西方很難作出任何妥協。If Washington is rattled by Mr Kim’s poker face, so is Beijing. Xi Jinping, China’s president, in an obvious reference to North Korea, said “no country in Asia should be able to throw a region, and even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gain”. Some Chinese scholars say the North Korean leader’s actions, though ostensibly directed towards the US, may actually be aimed at China. According to this theory, Mr Kim wants to show he cannot be pushed around. North Korea is not a tame satellite that can be prodded into Chinese-style economic reform or exploited for its natural resources.
如果說金正恩的“撲克臉”令華盛頓方面感到緊張，那麼北京方面的心情也同樣如此。中國國家主席習近平表示：“不能爲一己之私把一個地區乃至世界搞亂。”他的這番話明顯是在指朝鮮。一些中國學者表示，儘管朝鮮領導人的舉動表面上是針對美國，但實際上卻可能是針對中國。按照這種說法，金正恩是想以此向世人展示：他不會受人擺佈；朝鮮也不是馴服的跟班，不會被迫推行中國式的經濟改革，不會任人掠奪它的自然資源。Throughout this high-stakes contest, Washington has had to play a very delicate game. It has needed to prove to its allies in the region, mainly South Korea and Japan, that it has their back. On the other hand, its forceful presence – particularly the dispatch of nuclear-capable bombers to the peninsula – may be the reason Mr Kim has continued to pile his chips so high.
對美國來說，這場豪賭是一個高難度的牌局。一方面，它需要向該地區盟友——主要是韓國和日本——證明，美國是它們的堅強後盾。另一方面，它的強勢存在——特別是向朝鮮半島派遣可攜帶核彈的轟炸機——可能是金正恩不斷加碼到今天這種地步的原因。Now, the aim must be to ratchet down the tension. Washington has already shown signs of doing just that. Last weekend it postponed an intercontinental ballistic missile test for fear of provoking Pyongyang.
如今，首要目標是緩和緊張氣氛。華盛頓方面已展現出此類動向。上週末，美國爲避免激怒朝鮮，推遲了洲際彈道導彈試射。Of course, Mr Kim may not respond. He may test another missile or even a fourth nuclear bomb. But if a confrontation can be avoided this time, the imperative will be – after a suitable interval – to talk to Pyongyang. At some stage someone will need to sit down with the North Koreans if only to try to glean something about who on earth the world is dealing with. Playing nuclear poker with an unknown adversary is simply too dangerous.
當然，金正恩對此可能不會有什麼迴應。他可能會試射另一枚導彈，甚至會進行第四次核試驗。不過，如果這次能避免衝突，那麼當務之急是在一段合適的時間之後與平壤方面展開對話。在某個階段，總歸是要有人坐下來與朝鮮好好談談的，即便只是爲了蒐集一下情報、瞭解一下世界究竟在與什麼樣的人打交道。與不瞭解的對手玩“核撲克”實在太危險了。
