總統家族 "布什三世"低調登場
This week Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida (and second son of George Bush), has been discreetly pressing the flesh in London. Unsurprisingly, interest in him has been sky high. For with the Republicans feeling exuberant after the recent midterm vote, there is fevered speculation about whether the genial Bush will become a 2016 Republican presidential candidate – and thus potentially pave the way for a bizarrely dynastic Bush v Clinton fight.
本週，美國佛羅里達州前州長傑布•布什（Jeb Bush，老布什(George H.W. Bush)的次子）低調地在倫敦與人們握手。不出所料，外界對他極感興趣。最近中期選舉結果出爐後，共和黨人歡欣鼓舞，各方狂熱地猜測這位待人親切的布什會不會成爲2016年大選的共和黨總統候選人，潛在開啓一場帶有弔詭的王朝意味的選戰，即他與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)角逐總統職位。Indeed, curiosity is so intense that when Pi Capital, the financial networking group, arranged a private breakfast with Bush in a Mayfair hotel, the room was packed with business leaders and financiers, all eager to hear his plans, his views on Hillary Clinton and much else.
的確，人們對布什是如此好奇，以至於當金融集團Pi Capital在倫敦梅菲爾(Mayfair)地區的一家酒店爲他安排一場私人早餐會時，房間裏擠滿了商界領袖和金融家，他們都迫切地想聽一聽布什的計劃，以及他對希拉里和其他許多事情的看法。
But having attended the breakfast meeting myself, I came away with two clear conclusions. The first is that this latest Bush is still playing it coy about whether he will actually run. His famous father and brother – the 41st and 43rd presidents respectively – say they would back his bid and Bush seems to be seriously considering it. But he remains carefully non-committal right now – much like Clinton herself in fact (she talks about her new grandchild if anyone asks if she will run for the Democratic nomination).
然而，在親自參加了這個早餐會之後，我得出了兩個明確的結論。首先，關於他是否會真的競選，這位最新登場的布什還在“打太極”。他著名的父親和哥哥（分別是第41任和第43任美國總統）都表示他們將支持他競選，而他似乎也在認真考慮。但他謹慎地避免現在就明確表態，這一點和希拉里差不多（每當有人問她是否會競爭民主黨候選人提名時，她會談論自己剛出世的外孫女）。
But, second, this third Bush is also a man who tries hard to sound not just genial but sensible too. Indeed, if you ignore the peculiar dynastic legacy and highly privileged life, he looks almost normal, more akin to an avuncular family doctor than firebrand. He is a man known for espousing the merits of free markets and private business – but is not calling for the abolition of the Federal Reserve or a return to the gold standard. Bush favours tighter border controls and balanced budgets but he also wants to encourage economic immigration, free trade and infrastructure projects. He does not support an isolationist US but nor does he want to invade every country with an unpleasant regime.
但是，我的第二個結論是，這位布什三號努力讓自己聽上去不僅是個親切的人，還是個明智的人。的確，如果你忽略弔詭的王朝遺風和他極其優越的生活，他看上去幾乎像個普通人，更像是一位具有長輩風範的家庭醫生，而不是一個挑動爭端的人。他以擁護自由市場和私營企業的優越性著稱，但不會呼籲廢除美聯儲(Fed)或者回到金本位制。他贊同更嚴格的邊境管控和預算平衡，但他也同樣希望鼓勵經濟移民、自由貿易和基礎設施項目。他不支持一個奉行孤立主義的美國，但也不想入侵每一個由令人不快的政權掌權的國家。He sounds, in other words, pragmatic, if not centrist – and notably different from many of the Republican figures who have grabbed attention in recent years, be that Sarah Palin (the 2008 vice-presidential candidate), Ted Cruz (the Tea Party firebrand who fancies himself as a 2016 presidential candidate) or Rand Paul (the libertarian Republican leader who is another potential runner).
換句話說，他聽起來是務實的（如果說還算不上是中間立場的話），而且和近年來吸引人們注意力的許多共和黨頭面人物明顯不同，比如莎拉•佩林（Sarah Palin，2008年副總統候選人）、特德•克魯斯（Ted Cruz，茶黨(Tea Party)的挑動爭端者，幻想當上2016年總統候選人）或者蘭德•保羅（Rand Paul，自由主義派共和黨人的領袖，另一位可能參選的人）。So does this mean that a third Bush presidential campaign is doomed? The answer partly depends not simply on that tricky matter of dynasty but something else: can “sensible” be sold to US voters today? Judging from the past decade, the answer might seem to be “no”. As the rise of the Tea Party has shown, the big winners in American politics, particularly on the right, have tended to embrace celebrity politics, populism and protest.
那麼這是否意味着這位布什競選總統註定會失敗呢？答案不僅僅取決於棘手的王朝問題，還有其它因素：如今的美國選民是否還買“明智”的帳？從過去10年的情況看，答案似乎是否定的。正如茶黨的崛起所顯示出的那樣，美國政治的大贏家（尤其是在右翼），傾向於採用名人政治、民粹主義和抗議。That partly reflects the economic cycle – and, most notably, the pain caused by the great financial crisis and recession. But it may also reflect a longer-term structural shift. These days, more and more voters are getting their information – about politics and everything else – via social media platforms such as Twitter. These platforms are an effective way to create a loud political noise but not a good place to create thoughtful debate. Attention spans are so short that everyone needs to shout to be heard. Extremism tends to dominate.
這部分反映了經濟週期，尤其是嚴重金融危機和經濟衰退造成的痛苦。但或許也反映了更長期的結構性轉變。如今，越來越多的選民通過Twitter等社交媒體平臺來獲取信息——無論是關於政治還是其他事情。這些平臺能夠有效地製造巨大的政治輿論，但不是開展有思想深度的辯論的理想平臺。人們的注意力持續時間如此之短，以至於每個人都得大聲叫嚷才能讓別人聽到自己的聲音。極端言論往往主宰了這些平臺。Perhaps this is just a short-term phenomenon. There are some factors in the current American political mood that might – just possibly – make it easier to sell a sensible candidate to voters, or so some of the old-school Republicans and business leaders who are trying to remake the party desperately hope. For one thing, the economic outlook seems to be improving. For another, the mood in Congress might be getting a little more pragmatic. With both the Senate and House of Representatives now controlled by the Republicans, it is possible that Congress will pass more legislation in the next couple of years. If so, that might show voters that pragmatic co-operation pays.
也許這只是一個短期現象。當前美國政治氛圍中的某些因素可能——僅僅是可能——讓選民們更容易接受一個明智的候選人，至少一些老派共和黨人和商界領袖殷切希望如此，他們正試圖重新打造該黨。一方面，經濟前景似乎在改善。另一方面，美國國會的氛圍也可能變得更務實了一些。隨着共和黨將參衆兩院都掌握在手中，未來兩年國會可能會通過更多法律。若果真如此，那也許能讓選民看到，務實合作是能夠帶來成果的。Then there is the nature of emotional cycles. Back in 2008, US voters fell violently in love with the idea of “hope and change”, as presented by a man blessed with soaring rhetoric and celebrity. Today many have fallen equally violently out of love with Barack Obama as those unrealistic dreams have been dashed. That might leave them grasping at another anti-establishment celebrity dream – but it might also leave them shunning glitz. Voting for Bush, in other words, could yet be presented as the political equivalent of dating a lawyer after being burned by an unreliable rock star. Or, more accurately, like dating the sensible son of your high-school teacher, whose family you already know well.
還有就是情緒週期的本質。回想2008年，美國選民狂熱地迷上了某位慷慨激昂、人氣高漲的人提出的理念——“希望和改變”。如今，隨着那些不切實際的夢想被擊碎，很多人開始同樣激烈地厭棄巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)。這也許會讓他們擁戴另一位反體制的名人——但也可能讓他們唾棄浮誇。換句話說，投票給布什在政治上可能等同於在被一個不靠譜的搖滾明星傷害後，轉而和一個律師約會。或者，更準確地來說，就像和你高中老師家的明智的兒子約會一樣，你已經非常瞭解他的家庭了。Of course, all this is mere speculation. Thus far the only thing that is tangibly clear is that this Bush commands moderate respect: according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, some 26 per cent of voters think he would make a good president, which is better than many rival potential candidates, if not great. But in the months ahead, Americans and non-Americans alike should closely watch this third Bush. Not just because of what it might reveal about Republican policies or the dynastic-cum-tribal patterns of US politics but also for what it shows about how social media is changing politics – or not. Can sensible, in other words, ever “trend”?
當然，這些都只是猜測而已。到目前爲止，唯一確鑿的是，這位布什贏得了一定程度的尊敬：最近美國廣播公司新聞部(ABC News)和《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)進行的民意調查顯示，約有26%的選民認爲布什會是一位好總統，就算這個比例不算太高，至少也比很多潛在的競選對手強。在接下來的數月裏，美國人和美國以外的人都應該密切關注這位布什三號——不僅僅是爲了從中觀察共和黨的政策，或者領略美國政治的“王朝和部落”色彩，也是爲了觀察社交媒體如何改變政治進程，或者沒能改變政治進程。換句話說，明智能引領潮流嗎？
