希拉里將重燃美國企業的動物精神 Hillary’s war on quarterly capitalism

One thing going for Hillary Clinton’s struggling campaign is that she is alert to new ideas. Email scandals continue to rumble. Her mediocrity on the stump worries supporters — no Bill Clinton or Barack Obama is she. But even detractors concede her appetite for new thinking. Her bold idea is to take on economic short-termism.

有一件事支撐着希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)滿布荊棘的競選之路——她對新觀點頗爲警惕。“郵件門”醜聞持續發酵。她在競選演說中表現出的平庸讓支持者擔心——她既不是比爾克林頓(Bill Clinton)，也不是巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)。但是，現在甚至連批評者也承認，她樂於接受新思維。她的大膽思路是打擊經濟短期主義。

The topic’s wonkishness ensures it will be drowned out by Donald Trump’s shenanigans. Yet it ought to be taken seriously. The odds are that Mrs Clinton is the next president, which will put her in a good position to wage war on “quarterly capitalism”, as she calls it. She might even win victories. Ending the tyranny of quarterly earnings is an idea that is on the march.

該話題的書呆子氣使其必將敵不過唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)的詭計。不過，人們也應該認真對待該話題。希拉里有可能會成爲下屆總統，那將使她處於絕佳位置來向她所說的“季度資本主義”（quarterly capitalism）開戰。她或許甚至會贏得勝利。結束季度盈利的暴政，這是一個正在上升中的觀點。

The case for reforming shareholder capitalism is strong. The level of US investment is at its lowest since 1947. Last year, according to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies spent more than $500bn on share buybacks . This year it is expected to hit $600bn.

改革股東資本主義的理由很有說服力。美國投資水平正處於自1947年以來的最低點。據高盛(Goldman Sachs)數據顯示，去年標普500指數(S&P 500)成份企業在股票回購方面的支出超過5000億美元。今年預計將達到6000億美元。

The longer this cycle continues, the more puzzling the investment drought becomes. With healthy profits and a near zero cost of capital, now ought to be the time to lay down plans for the future. Today’s investments yield tomorrow’s dividends. But listed companies are almost uniformly opting for dividends today. For every dollar the top US public companies spend on investment, they are returning eight or nine dollars to shareholders.

這種循環持續地越久，投資乾涸的問題就會變得越令人傷腦筋。在利潤良好和資本成本接近於零的情況下，如今本應該是爲未來制定計劃的時候。今天的投資決定了明天的紅利。但是上市公司幾乎一致選擇了今天的紅利。美國頂級上市公司在投資上每花一分錢，都給股東帶來8或9倍的回報。

Corporate America is stuck in a self-fulfilling pessimism. As long as it believes US growth will not exceed roughly two per cent a year, it will not bet on future expansion, which delivers what it fears. In an ideal world, the US public sector would compensate for private sector saving by running fiscal deficits. But that is a political impossibility.

美國企業正陷於自我實現的悲觀主義之中。只要企業認爲美國年增長率不會超過約2%，它們就不會押注未來的擴張，擴張會帶來它們所恐懼的後果。在一個完美世界裏，美國公共部門會通過財政赤字來彌補私營部門儲蓄不足的情況。但是這在政治上是不可能的。

The merit of Mrs Clinton’s idea is that she would try to kindle investors’ animal spirits without expanding government. Today’s incentives are hopelessly biased towards boosting the short-term share price. That is how business chiefs are rewarded. Mrs Clinton is right to point out that America is short-changed because of it.

希拉里思路的可取之處在於，她會試圖在不使政府膨脹的情況下點燃投資者的動物本能。眼下的激勵措施都絕望地偏向於推高短期股價。這是公司高管獲得獎勵的途徑。希拉里指出美國因此被矇蔽了，她說的沒錯。

But her cure is no match for her diagnosis. She would introduce a tapered capital gains tax that would fall with the duration of the investment. Those who held their stake for at least six years would pay a lower capital gains tax of 20 per cent. Those who sold within two years would pay almost double. It is doubtful such tinkering would be enough to alter investors’ time horizons. The lure of a bird in the hand would still outweigh two in the bush.

但是，她治病的本領比不上診斷的本領。她會引入一種錐形的資本利得稅制，投資時間越長，稅率就越低。那些持股至少6年以上的人，適用的資本利得稅稅率比較低，爲20%。那些兩年內出售的人需要支付的資本利得稅差不多要增加一倍。如此小修小補是否足以使投資者改變投資期限，是令人懷疑的。一鳥在手的誘惑仍然大過雙鳥在林。

Many big investors, including pension funds, are already exempt from taxation. Nor is her proposal likely to deter shareholder activists, whose gains from holding C-suites to ransom will outweigh any new penalties. As long as chief executives’ compensation packages are set by the share price, little is likely to change.

包括養老基金在內的很多大型投資機構，都已享受免稅。希拉里的提議也不可能嚇住維權股東，他們從脅迫有管理層中獲得的收益，將高於任何新懲罰。只要高管薪酬方案的制定以股價爲基礎，就不太可能發生什麼改變。

Yet Mrs Clinton is venturing where others fear to tread. Quarterly capitalism was king during Bill Clinton’s administration in the 1990s. It still rules on the right. The chief mark of today’s Republican field is its allergy to new ideas. With the modest exception of Marco Rubio, who has suffered for it, every candidate is proposing big headline tax cuts — and little else. It is as if the last decade did not happen.

不過，希拉里下注的領域是其他人不敢涉足的。季度資本主義是上世紀90年代比爾克林頓執政期間的王道，目前在右翼陣營也仍然佔支配地位。如今共和黨陣營的主要標誌是其對新鮮想法的反感。有了溫和的馬可脠比奧(Marco Rubio)這樣的例外（他也因此備受折磨），每一個候選人都在提出聲勢浩大的減稅計劃——其他方面基本不提。就好像過去十年沒有發生過一樣。

The GOP is as much in the grip of 1980s supply-side thinking as ever. The economist Arthur Laffer, who popularised the notion that tax cuts always pay for themselves, remains the patron saint of Republican hopefuls. Anything that contradicts his edict is taboo.

共和黨依舊受上世紀80年代供應端思維的控制。經濟學家阿瑟拉弗(Arthur Laffer)普及了減稅總會自己買單的概念，他仍然是共和黨候選人的守護神。任何有悖其戒律的事都是禁忌。

This is both bad economics and bad politics. At a time of record inequality and stagnant wages, bigger tax cuts for high earners in 2016 is likely to be a vote loser.

這既是糟糕的經濟學，也是糟糕的政治學。在不平等和收入停滯處於歷史記錄高點之際，若對高收入者更大的減稅政策，則很可能在2016年的投票中敗北。

To Mrs Clinton’s left, the big idea is to break up the “too big to fail” banks and punish Wall Street for its crimes. So far Mrs Clinton has resisted such populism. If Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont, continues to poll well in Iowa, that might change. But if the size of banks had been the cause of the 2008 meltdown, Canada — with just a handful of big ones — would have fared worse than the US. The politics of breaking up Wall Street electrifies Democratic primary voters but the economics is unpersuasive.

對於希拉里所在的民主黨而言，結束“太大而不能倒”的銀行業、懲罰華爾街的罪行，是一個好主意。希拉里目前仍抵制這類民粹主義觀點。如果來自佛特蒙州的民主社會主義者伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)在愛荷華州的民調繼續保持良好的話，這一局面也許會改變。但是，如果銀行的規模是造成2008年經濟崩盤的原因，只擁有少數大型銀行的加拿大本應該比美國境遇更糟。打爛華爾街的政治主張會點燃民主黨初選選民的熱情，但是在經濟上的好處無法令人信服。

The advantage of Mrs Clinton’s platform is that it is both accurate and popular. She is also in good company. When critics accuse her of class warfare, she can refer them to similar points made by Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world. Dominic Barton, the managing director of McKinsey, the world’s best known consultancy, is also on board. He invented the term quarterly capitalism. Many economists, including conservative think-tankers on a hunt for a candidate bold enough to agree with them, have also signed up. Their aim is not to soak the rich but to repair capitalism.

希拉里所處平臺的優勢在於既精準又受歡迎。她也有許多志同道合的夥伴。當批評者指責她搞階級戰爭時，她可以讓他們參考全球最大資產管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)的掌門人拉里芬克(Larry Fink)類似的觀點。全世界最知名諮詢機構麥肯錫(McKinsey)的董事總經理鮑達民(Dominic Barton)也在之列。他發明了“季度資本主義”這個術語。很多經濟學者，包括一些正在物色敢於認同其觀點的候選人的保守派智庫人士，也已爲希拉里背書。他們的目標不是對富人課以重稅,而是修復資本主義。

Can such ideas win Mrs Clinton the White House? The next US election will be fought on the economy. For the time being, Mrs Clinton has the policy field to herself. The left lacks a plausible champion. The right is forming a circular firing squad. The door is wide open to original thinking. Whatever her flaws as a candidate, Mrs Clinton’s instinct is to walk through it.

這類主張能讓希拉里入主白宮嗎？下一屆美國大選將會在經濟議題上展開角逐。眼下，希拉里有自己的政策主張。左翼陣營缺乏一項令人信服的政策綱領。右翼陣營正在組成一個環形行刑隊。創造性思維的大門正敞開着。無論希拉里作爲候選人有什麼缺點，她的本能就是闖過難關。