好運的希拉里 Hillary Clinton's looming presidency

Here is a very Modest test of your imagination. It is December and Hillary Clinton is the president-elect. Not only did she beat Donald Trump but the Democrats retook the Senate and cut the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The US is gearing up for a third Clinton White House — or is it a third Obama term? Moreover, she will start on very low expectations. Whatever she can squeeze out of a horribly poisoned environment will be a bonus.

以下對你的想象力進行一次非常溫和的測試。現在是12月，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)是美國當選總統。她不僅擊敗唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)，而且民主黨人重新掌控參議院，並削弱了共和黨在衆議院的多數席位。美國將迎來克林頓夫婦第三次入主白宮——或者是奧巴馬的第三個任期？此外，希拉里將從外界非常低的預期起步。她從已被毒化的可怕環境無論爭取到何種成果，都將是意外收穫。

True, her dignity is in tatters. Mr Trump made sure of that in what was the most vicious general election ever. His supporters will remain undyingly hostile. But in today’s climate it is about as good as you get. Mrs Clinton has been handed a bunch of lemons. Her job is to make lemonade.

沒錯，她的尊嚴已蕩然無存。特朗普在史上最激烈的總統大選中確保了這一點。他的支持者們仍將對希拉里充滿敵意。但在如今的氛圍下，你能得到的也就是這麼多。希拉里被遞給一堆檸檬。她的任務是製作檸檬水。

Too much of a stretch? It should not be. Bernie Sanders’ emphatic caucus victories in Washington state, Alaska and Hawaii on Saturday night are a reminder that Mrs Clinton remains distrusted by much of her party’s base. But she is still firmly on course for the Democratic nomination. Moreover, most senior Republicans have all but written off the next White House. Their goal in 2016 is damage limitation. If Mr Trump wins a majority of delegates, they will have to hold their noses and live with him. But most would prefer to be defeated with Ted Cruz on the ticket.

這有些異想天開？應該不是。伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)上週六晚間在華盛頓州、阿拉斯加和夏威夷的初選中大獲全勝提醒人們，希拉里依然不被黨內許多基層選民信任。但她仍在大踏步走向獲得民主黨總統候選人的提名。與此同時，大多數的共和黨大佬幾乎放棄了該黨今年問鼎白宮的希望。他們在2016年的目標是“損害限制”。如果特朗普獲得多數選舉人票，他們將不得不捏着鼻子認了。但大多數人將寧願讓特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)作爲共和黨總統候選人輸掉大選。

To say there is no love lost between Mr Cruz and his colleagues is an understatement . But that is not the point. Either Mr Trump or Mr Cruz would go down to Mrs Clinton in November. Only Mr Cruz would keep the Republican Party intact. Furthermore, unlike Mr Trump, Mr Cruz is a conventional, if extreme, ideologue. His defeat would dispel the myth that Republicans keep losing because they fail to choose true conservatives. The scene would be set for someone like Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, to recapture the White House in 2020.

說克魯茲和黨內同僚彼此間沒有好感是客氣話。但問題不在這裏。無論是特朗普還是克魯茲都會在今年11月敗給希拉里。但只有克魯茲會讓共和黨全身而退。此外，與特朗普不同，克魯茲是一個常規（即使有些極端）的理論家。他的落敗將打破這樣一種神話，即共和黨人屢戰屢敗是因爲他們未能推選出真正的保守派候選人。這將爲衆議院議長保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)或其他人在2020年問鼎白宮搭起舞臺。

In reality, however, this is likelier to be a contest between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump. What a fight it will be. For opposition researchers — the “oppos” whose living it is to dig up whatever dirt they can find — a Clinton-Trump ticket is an election made in heaven. Never before in US politics have two such well-documented figures come face to face.

然而，在現實中，更有可能的情況是希拉里和特朗普展開對決。這將是一場異常激烈的角力。對選舉對手研究員來說——他們的生計是儘可能挖掘對手的污點——希拉里對陣特朗普是一場天作選舉。美國政治從未有過兩個如此長期備受矚目的人物展開競爭。

Mr Trump has been a household name in New York since the late 1970s when he began to play the local tabloids. Mrs Clinton has been a national figure since 1992, when she first came to attention as the Arkansas governor’s ambitious wife. The “vast rightwing conspiracy” against Mrs Clinton has been up and running for more than two decades. The string of Trumpian nightclub photo-ops goes back four decades. Mr Trump would be the first nominee whose spouse, Melania, has posed nude in a magazine. That would be a first for a prospective First Lady. Mrs Clinton would be the first nominee whose husband has had sexual encounters in the Oval Office. Could you invent this?

自上世紀70年代開始運營當地小報以來，特朗普在紐約一直是家喻戶曉的人物。自1992年作爲阿肯色州州長雄心勃勃的妻子首次引起注意以來，希拉里就一直是全國知名人士。針對希拉里的“龐大右翼陰謀”持續了20多年。特朗普出入夜總會提供了40年的攝影機會。特朗普將是首位配偶梅拉尼婭(Melania)裸體照片曾登上一家雜誌的提名候選人。那將是潛在第一夫人中的首例。而希拉里將是首名丈夫曾在橢圓辦公室出軌的提名候選人。你能編造出這些八卦嗎？

In truth, Mrs Clinton will be blessed in her opponent. In any other situation, she would have entered the 2016 election as an odds-even prospect at best. With Mr Trump, she is the overwhelming favourite. Fifty-six per cent of Americans disapprove of Mrs Clinton — and an even larger share distrust her. No one has ever made it to the White House with negative trust numbers. But luck is on her side. Among a field of candidates with higher ratings than Mrs Clinton, Republicans have singled out the only one whose numbers are far worse. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Mr Trump. Moreover, women disapprove of him by far larger margins. Since women vote in higher numbers than men (even angry white men), this ought to doom Mr Trump’s chances.

事實上，希拉里將會因競爭對手而受惠。在其他任何情況下，她進入2016年大選時的勝算充其量只有一半。在與特朗普對決的情況下，她將是佔有壓倒性優勢的熱門人選。56%的美國人不支持希拉里，而不信任她的人數比例甚至更高。從未有人在不信任比例超過一半的情況下問鼎白宮。但是運氣惠顧她這一邊。共和黨本來有多名支持率超過希拉里的候選人，該黨卻偏偏讓唯一一位支持率糟糕得多的候選人脫穎而出。三分之二的美國人不支持特朗普。此外，不支持特朗普的女性比例要高得多。由於女性投票比例高於男性（甚至憤怒的白人男性），這應該會葬送特朗普的機會。

Could these numbers be wrong? Of course. It is human beings who vote in elections, not pieces of data. But primary voters are more volatile — and extreme — than general electorates. A pollster’s chances of mis-forecasting the Iowa caucus, for example, are far higher than miscuing in the general.

這些數據可能錯誤嗎？當然有可能。畢竟，在選舉中投票的是人、而不是數據。但初選選民比大選選民更爲反覆無常和極端。例如，民意調查員錯誤預測愛荷華州黨團會議的機率遠高於整體誤判。

For Mrs Clinton, the most critical number is Mr Obama’s approval rating. This has been creeping up steadily for the past few months and now hovers at around 50 per cent. If it stays there, Mrs Clinton is set fair. It will dictate that she ensures there will be no crack of daylight between her and the sitting president before November 8. There are many areas, most notably foreign policy, where Mrs Clinton differs with Mr Obama . She has a more activist vision of US diplomacy and would have fewer qualms about asserting military power in Syria and elsewhere. She has said she does not want her grandchildren to grow up in a China-dominated world.

對希拉里來說，最關鍵的數據是奧巴馬的支持率。在過去幾個月里奧巴馬的支持率一直穩步攀升，現在徘徊在50%左右。如果繼續保持這個支持率，希拉里就贏定了。這將需要希拉里確保在11月8日前和現任總統不會公開分歧。希拉里在許多領域（尤其是外交政策）與奧巴馬存在分歧。她認爲美國外交應更有作爲，而且不太擔心在敘利亞和其他地方動用武力。她已經說過，不希望自己的孫輩在中國主導的世界長大。

But all that can wait until January. Mr Obama is itching to campaign on Mrs Clinton’s behalf — and she will need his help to bring out the African Americans, the Hispanics, the young and the progressives. As I say, it will be a vicious battle that will bring little credit to democracy. Mrs Clinton still lacks a coherent message and most Americans distrust her. A large minority hates her. Mr Trump will channel that raw sentiment. Long after he has been defeated — and the spectre of a Trump administration dispelled — his army of supporters will live on. That genie is out of the bottle. Mrs Clinton will finally have achieved her ambition. But the age of extreme incivility will be only just beginning.

但這一切可以等到明年1月再說。奧巴馬渴望代表希拉里展開競選——而後者將需要奧巴馬的幫助來吸引非裔美國人、拉美裔美國人、年輕人和進步人士。正如我前面所說的，這將是一場很難爲民主體制增色的激烈競爭。希拉里仍缺乏連貫的政見，大多數美國人不信任她。還有一個爲數不少的少數羣體憎恨她。特朗普將利用那種原始情緒。在他被擊敗——以及“特朗普政府”的魅影消散——之後很久，他的支持者陣營仍將存在。魔鬼已經逃出了瓶子。希拉里最終將實現其野心。但極端不文明的時代將只是剛剛拉開帷幕。