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Donald Trump’s first visit to Europe was awkward. Its aftermath has been explosive. Speaking at an election rally in Munich, shortly after the US president had returned to Washington, Angela Merkel came close to announcing the death of the western alliance.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)對歐洲的首次訪問磕磕絆絆。它產生的後果是爆炸性的。就在這位美國總統返回華盛頓不久，在慕尼黑一次選舉集會上，安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)差一點就宣告了西方聯盟的死亡。

The German chancellor warned that: “The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days. We Europeans must really take our destiny in our own hands. Of course we need to have friendly relations with the US and with the UK and with other neighbours, including Russia. But we have to fight for our own future ourselves.”

這位德國總理警告稱：“正如我過去幾天所體驗到的，某種程度上說，我們可以完全指望其他人的時代終結了。我們歐洲人必須真正把命運掌握在自己手中。當然，我們需要與美國、英國和包括俄羅斯在內的其他鄰國的友好關係。但我們不得不自己爲我們的未來而奮鬥。”

Ms Merkel’s remarks swiftly made headlines. Richard Haass, who as president of the Council on Foreign Relations is the doyen of the US foreign-policy establishment, tweeted: “Merkel saying Europe cannot rely on others & needs to take matters into its own hands is a watershed — & what US has sought to avoid since WW2.”

默克爾的發言迅速成爲各大媒體頭條。美國對外政策圈元老、外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德?哈斯(Richard Haass)發推文稱：“默克爾稱，歐洲不能依賴其他國家，必須把事情掌握在自己手中。默克爾說出這句話是一道分水嶺，這一幕也是美國二戰以來一直努力避免出現的。”

It is easy and appropriate to blame President Trump for this state of affairs. But despite her cautious phrasing, Ms Merkel has also behaved irresponsibly — making a statement that threatens to widen a dangerous rift in the Atlantic alliance into a permanent breach.

這種狀況很容易、也應該被歸咎於特朗普總統。不過，儘管默克爾措辭謹慎，她發表這樣的聲明也同樣是不負責任的——該聲明可能會將大西洋同盟中的一道危險裂痕擴大爲永久的決裂。

The case against Mr Trump is easiest to make. His performance in Europe was disastrous. In a speech to Nato, the US president failed to reaffirm Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defence clause.

怪罪特朗普的理由可以輕而易舉地找到。他在歐洲的表現是災難性的。在對北約(NATO)的一個講話中，這位美國總統沒有重申北約的共同防務條款——第五條(Article 5)。

This was not an accidental oversight and sent a clear message that America’s commitment to the defence of Europe can no longer be taken for granted. That, in turn, risks encouraging Russia to test Nato’s defences.

這並不是偶然的疏忽，而是傳遞了一個明確信號：不能再將美國保衛歐洲的承諾視爲理所當然。反過來，這也可能鼓勵俄羅斯考驗北約的防衛。

At a G7 summit, Mr Trump stood alone in his failure to endorse the Paris climate accord. And he was also widely quoted as calling Germany “bad, very bad” for the sin of selling too many cars in the US.

在一個七國集團(G7)峯會上，只有特朗普沒有支持巴黎氣候協議。此外，他還說德國“很壞，壞透了”，罪過是在美國賣了太多汽車——這句話被廣泛引用。

Faced with all this, and with Brexit Britain, Ms Merkel may feel that she is merely stating the obvious in suggesting that Germany can no longer count on its American and British allies. Nonetheless, her speech was a blunder for at least five reasons.

面臨所有這一切以及即將退歐的英國，默克爾或許覺得，她暗示德國不能再指望其美國和英國盟友，只是在陳述一個顯而易見的事實。然而，她的講話是個錯誤，理由至少有五條。

First, it is a mistake to allow four months of the Trump presidency to throw into doubt a Transatlantic alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for 70 years. It may come to that. But it is also possible that Mr Trump is an aberration and will soon be out of office.

首先，容許特朗普四個月的總統生涯將保持了歐洲70年和平的跨大西洋同盟投入疑雲之中，這是錯誤的。或許有一天跨大西洋同盟會陷入疑雲。但也有可能特朗普是個異數，很快會走人。

Second, the US president actually had a valid point to make about the failure of most European countries to meet Nato targets on military expenditure. Mr Trump’s behaviour in Europe was crass. But his argument that it is unsustainable for the US to account for almost 75 per cent of Nato defence spending is correct — and was also made by Robert Gates, defence secretary for President Obama. Given that Germany has been freeriding on American military spending, it is a little cheeky to blame the US for being an unreliable ally.

其次，關於多數歐洲國家沒有達到北約軍事開支目標這件事，這位美國總統實際上說得在理。特朗普在歐洲的行爲愚不可及。然而，他說美國承擔北約近75%的防務開支不可持續，這個主張是正確的，奧巴馬(Obama)總統的國防部長羅伯特?蓋茨(Robert Gates)也曾說過同樣的話。考慮到德國一直在搭美國軍事開支的便車，譴責美國是不可靠的盟友有點厚顏無恥的味道。

Third, by implying that the western alliance is now coming apart, Ms Merkel has compounded the error that Mr Trump made when he failed to endorse Article 5.

第三，通過暗示西方同盟如今正分崩離析，默克爾使得特朗普未背書北約第五條的錯誤更加嚴重了。

Both events will have encouraged the Russian government in its hope of breaking up the western alliance. That, in turn, makes Europe’s security situation more dangerous.

這兩件事都會鼓舞俄羅斯政府對打散西方同盟寄予更大希望。這反過來會令歐洲安全局勢更加危險。

Fourth, Ms Merkel was unwise and unfair to bracket the UK with Trump’s America. In the climate change discussions, Britain sided with the EU — not the US. Similarly, the government of Theresa May has been at pains to stress Britain’s commitment to Nato.

第四，默克爾將英國與特朗普領導的美國歸爲一類，既不明智也不公平。在氣候變化磋商中，英國站在歐盟(EU)這邊，而不是站在美國那邊。與此類似，特里薩?梅(Theresa May)政府一直在煞費苦心地強調英國對北約的承諾。

However, if Ms Merkel’s government pursues the Brexit negotiations in the current confrontational spirit — demanding that the UK commit to vast upfront payments, before even discussing a trade deal — she risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy and a lasting antagonism between Britain and the EU.

然而，如果默克爾政府以目前這種對抗情緒開展英國退歐談判——要求英國在還未啓動貿易協議磋商前就確定鉅額先期付款，她可能創造自我應驗的預言，還可能製造英國和歐盟間持久的敵對。

It is hard to see how the UK can be expected to see the same countries as adversaries in the Brexit negotiations and allies in the Nato context. So a really hard Brexit could indeed raise questions about Britain’s commitment to Nato — particularly if the US is also pulling back from the western alliance.

難以想象，如何能指望英國把同一些國家既視爲退歐談判時的對手，又視爲北約裏的盟友。因此，太過艱難的英國退歐進程，真的可能引發對英國對北約承諾的質疑——尤其是假如美國也將撤出這一西方同盟的話。

The final flaw in Ms Merkel’s approach is that it displayed an uncharacteristic deafness to the echoes of history. One of the truly impressive things about modern Germany is that, more than any other country I can think of, it has thought hard about the lessons of history, and learnt them with thoroughness and humility. So it is baffling that a German leader could stand in a beer-tent in Bavaria and announce a separation from Britain and the US while bracketing those two countries with Russia. The historical resonances should be chilling.

默克爾處理方式的最後一個錯誤在於，它顯示出對歷史先例反常的置若罔聞。現代德國真正令人印象深刻的一點在於，它對歷史教訓開展了深刻反思，並徹底而謙卑地吸取了這些教訓——其程度超過了我能想到的任何其他國家。因此，讓人困惑的是，一位德國領導人如何會站在巴伐利亞州一個啤酒帳篷中宣佈與英美的分離，並將這兩個國家與俄羅斯歸爲一類。歷史上與此相似的場景應該會讓人不寒而慄。

None of this is meant to suggest that Ms Merkel is on the same moral and political level as Mr Trump. The US president has repeatedly displayed contempt for core western values — from freedom of the press to the prohibition on torture and the support of democracies around the world.

所有這些都不等於暗示默克爾與特朗普處於同一道德和政治水平上。對於從出版自由到禁止刑訊逼供、再到支持全球民主等各種西方核心價值觀，特朗普曾反覆顯示出蔑視。

As a result, some have even proclaimed that the German chancellor is now the true leader of the western world. That title was bestowed prematurely. The sad reality is that Ms Merkel seems to have little interest in fighting to save the western alliance.

出於這個原因，有人甚至已宣稱默克爾如今是西方世界的真正領導人。這一頭銜授予得太早了。一個令人悲哀的現實是，默克爾似乎對竭力挽救西方同盟沒什麼興趣。