豬肉漲價給我們帶來的教訓
Heed lessons of the pork price hike
豬肉漲價給我們帶來的教訓
The Commerce Ministry said it has been closely following the rising price of pork in the market, and will put more frozen pork, beef and lamb reserved by the central government into the market to increase the supply of meat. The 21st Century Business Herald comments:
商務部表示其一直密切關注市場上豬肉價格的上漲，並計劃將中央政府預留的冷凍豬肉、牛肉和羊肉投入市場以增加肉類供應。《21世紀經濟報道》（The 21st Century Business Herald）如是評論：
The outbreak of African swine fever last year has brought down the breeding stock of pigs in China. In October last year, the number of reproductive sows decreased by 5.9 percent year-on-year, breaking the 5 percent warning line. The decrease has been expanding continuously ever since, hitting 26.7 percent in June. Since it takes at least 10 months for piglets to mature, and the fall in the number of sows has not been checked, the supply of pork will continue to slip for months.
去年非洲豬瘟的爆發使得我國的生豬養殖數量急劇下降。去年10月份，母豬的數量同比下降5.9%，超過了5%的警戒線。之後，下降率逐步擴大，今年6月同比下降26.7%。由於小豬崽大約需要10個月的時間才能養肥，且尚不清楚減少的母豬數量，因此豬肉供需關係將進一步收緊。
But history shows when the price of pork goes up, the pig farming industry will increase its investment to quickly expand their breeding scale to gain from high prices, and with the increase of supply, the price of pork will decline soon.
但歷史表明，當豬肉價格上漲時，養豬業將加大投資以快速擴大養殖規模並從高價中獲利，而隨着供應量的增加，豬肉也會很快降價。
Since the epidemic has been largely controlled nationwide, it will only be a matter of time before the pork supply picks up, and the price falls. The other cause is that stricter environmental protection policies carried out after April 2015 have forced many small-scale pig farms, whose capacity to manage the risks of diseases and price fluctuations is much weaker, to shut down.
由於全國範圍內的豬瘟疫情已得到很大程度的控制，因此豬肉供應量增加、豬肉價格降低只是時間問題。另一個原因是，2015年4月開始實施的更爲嚴格的環境保護政策迫使許多小型養豬場關閉，這些養殖場管理疾病風險和價格波動的能力頗弱。
The disappearance of small farms means the industry has put all its eggs in one basket－large pig farms. Before effective methods were found to control the outbreak of swine fever, weeding out the small pig farms has actually weakened the whole industry's capacity to cope with the epidemic.
小型養豬場的消失意味着養豬業的孤注一擲——大型養豬場。在找到控制豬瘟爆發的有效方法前，淘汰小型養豬場實際上削弱了整個行業應對疫情的能力。
Even if it has affected dozens of countries, the African swine fever should not be classified as "natural disaster" to justify the pork price hike. The authorities have plenty of lessons to draw from the dramatic changes in the pig industry to improve their adaptability and risk-prevention ability for the management of the food industry.
即使非洲豬瘟已影響了數十個國家，但也不應爲了證明豬肉價格上漲的合理性而將其歸類爲“自然災害”。當局從養豬業的巨大變化中汲取了大量教訓，並致力於提高他們對食品行業管理的適應性和風險防範能力。
