諾基亞大廈將傾,恐將步愛立信後塵(2)

It reported an operating profit of 11m in the first half of this year. But on an underlying basis its operating profit was 524m, giving it an adjusted margin of 9.4 per cent of sales, compared with minus 0.5 per cent for mobiles.

NSN今年上半年的營運利潤爲1100萬歐元。但其基本營業利潤高達5.24億歐元，這使其經調整後的銷售利潤率達到9.4%，遠高於手機部門-0.5%的水平。

Crudely splitting out the mobile phone division would have left Nokia with about half of the 11.5bn in sales it reported in the first six months of this year. But it would still have nursed an operating loss because of the poor performance of its mapping division, which it will keep along with NSN and its portfolio of patents.

諾基亞今年前六個月的銷售業績爲115億歐元，若粗略剔除手機部門，將使銷售額下降大約二分之一。但該公司仍將產生營業虧損，受地圖部門的糟糕業績拖累——諾基亞將保留該部門、NSN以及自身的專利組合。

Investors appear to be happy with Nokia’s new focus: its shares are up 41 per cent this week. “Nokia’s dismal earnings and cash development have been solely driven by its ailing devices business.

投資者似乎很滿意諾基亞的新主營方向：該公司股價本週上漲了41%。北歐聯合銀行(Nordea)分析師薩米•薩爾卡梅斯(Sami Sarkamies)在一份報告中寫道：“諾基亞陷入困境的手機業務是導致該公司盈利慘淡以及現金流吃緊的唯一原因。”

“Now that those problems are out of the way, we expect investors to gradually start viewing Nokia as the number three global mobile network supplier it is, along with a strong patent portfolio – in essence a smaller version of Ericsson,” Sami Sarkamies, analyst at Nordea, wrote in a report.

“現在這些障礙都已被清除，我們預計投資者將逐漸正視諾基亞的市場地位，該公司是全球第三大移動網絡設備供應商，並且擁有一個強大的專利組合——換句話說，諾基亞相當於規模略小的愛立信。”

He says that, assuming a 1.50 per share extraordinary dividend from Nokia, Ericsson still trades at a 40 per cent premium based on next year’s estimated earnings.

薩爾卡梅斯指出，假設諾基亞派發每股1.5歐元的特別股息，按照明年的預期盈利計算，愛立信相對於諾基亞的股價溢價仍高達40%。

“We find this completely unwarranted considering that Nokia is now a potential acquisition target for Samsung, and faced with notable upside related to a potential US market entry” if the struggling Alcatel-Lucent withdraws, he adds.

薩爾卡梅斯補充稱：“我們認爲這種溢價是毫無道理的，因爲諾基亞現已成爲三星(Samsung)的潛在收購目標，而進軍美國市場的可能性還使其具有很大的上行潛力——如果目前處境艱難的阿爾卡特朗訊(Alcatel-Lucent)退出的話。”

Not everyone is so sanguine. A former senior Nokia executive says: “It’s obviously a tricky and risky decision to focus on NSN.”

不過不是所有人都如此樂觀。諾基亞的一位前高管表示：“將NSN作爲業務重點無疑是一個棘手而有風險的決定。”

He frets that Nokia is in a way leaping out of the frying pan and into the fire with the likes of Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE proving to be formidable rivals.

他擔心，諾基亞從某種意義上來說是剛跳出油鍋、又落入火坑，將要面對愛立信、華爲(Huawei)、中興(ZTE)等已被證明相當可怕的對手。

“The visibility is so much less than it used to be and the competitive landscape is so different. Can you be a winner among Ericsson and two or three Chinese companies?” he says.

他指出：“目前市場的能見度比過去大大降低，競爭版圖已大不相同。你能在與愛立信以及兩至三家中國企業的競爭中勝出嗎？”

Mr Siilasmaa refuses to be drawn, merely noting that NSN has come a long way in the past three years: from Nokia’s problem child to the cornerstone of the company.

斯拉斯瑪拒絕被拉入爭論，而只是指出NSN在過去三年中取得了很大進展：從諾基亞的問題兒童，變成了公司的業務基石。

That may be comforting to some because of its rebound in profitability, but NSN, run out of the glare of great publicity for much of the past six years, will now be firmly in the spotlights.

NSN的盈利能力反彈可能會讓某些人感到安慰。但是，過去六年來大部分時間裏不受關注的NSN，現在將牢牢處於聚光燈下。

One person involved in the deal says: “Now NSN is going to become the core business, there is going to be a tremendous amount of focus on it.”

一名參與諾基亞出售手機業務交易的人士表示：“現在NSN將成爲諾基亞的核心業務，並將受到密切關注。”