大舉招人制造新蘋果 舊路救不了富士康

Hon Hai is reportedly in the market to add 100,000 employees to its payroll, More than live in any of the largest cities in five US states. These workers would be destined to produce the next iPhone. Analysts anticipate an October launch date.

據報道，鴻海(Hon Hai)正在招聘10萬名新員工，比美國5個州任何一個大城市的市民還多。這些工人據信將生產下一代iPhone手機。分析師預計該手機的推出時間將在10月。

Hon Hai’s special relationship with Apple has driven much of its growth in recent years. Apple accounts for just under half of revenues for Hon Hai (also known as Foxconn), up from 17 per cent in 2007, the year of the first iPhone.

鴻海與蘋果(Apple)的特殊關係，近年來推動其大部分增長。蘋果佔鴻海（又名富士康）營收的近一半，2007年蘋果推出第一款iPhone手機時，上述比例爲17%。

But the relationship has been skewed. Apple infamously leaves little profit for its suppliers. While Hon Hai’s revenues have more than doubled since 2007, net income is up only 40 per cent. JPMorgan estimates that between early 2010 and mid 2012, Hon Hai assembled the iPad for zero profit in an effort to persuade Apple to remain exclusive. As margins dropped, Hon Hai’s price to earnings ratio fell from a high of 21 times in 2007 to a (post-crisis) low of 9. The stock is now trading at 11 times forward estimates.

但這種關係是扭曲的。蘋果有幾乎不給供應商留出利潤餘地的惡名。雖然鴻海的營收自2007年以來增加了一倍多，但淨利潤僅增長了40%。摩根大通(JPMorgan)估計，從2010年初至2012年年中，鴻海以零利潤組裝iPad，以此努力說服蘋果維持獨家供應商安排。隨着利潤率下跌，鴻海的市盈率從2007年的21倍之高，下降至（經濟危機之後）的低點——9倍。目前其預期市盈率爲11倍。

Apple was unfaithful anyway, promiscuously spreading its orders around other suppliers. Surprisingly, the impact on Hon Hai’s profitability has been positive. Hon Hai got tough, negotiating to include more of their own components in Apple’s products, and improving margins. At the same time Apple’s margins have been falling; it will not be pushed much further.

蘋果無論如何都是不忠的，肆意向其他供應商派發訂單。令人意外的是，這對鴻海的利潤率產生了積極的影響。鴻海變強硬了，通過談判將自己生產的更多零部件用於蘋果產品，提高了利潤率。與此同時，蘋果的利潤率卻在下跌；它不能再有更大讓步了。

So Hon Hai, a company with annual revenues of $130bn, must find another path to growth. There are some possibilities. New customer Huawei is world number three in smartphones with 5 per cent market share. But this leaves Hon Hai hostage to the fortunes of yet another brand. Attempts to diversify have included acquiring a 4G licence for $300m. While negligible next to Hon Hai’s $8bn in free cash flow in 2014, this is hardly an area of expertise and looks like a distraction. A new product from Apple may well cause excitement. But Hon Hai will need more than that to secure growth for the next generation of investors.

所以，年營收1300億美元的鴻海，必須找到另一條增長之路。有幾個可能。新客戶華爲(Huawei)在全球智能手機行業排名第三，擁有5%的市場份額。但這讓鴻海的命運受制於另一個品牌。嘗試多元化的努力包括斥資3億美元獲得4G牌照。這一方面相對於鴻海2014年80億美元的自由現金流微不足道，另一方面不是其專長所在，看起來更像會分神。來自蘋果的新產品可能足以引發興奮。但鴻海要爲下一代投資者確保增長，需要的遠不止於此。