蘋果iPad銷量下滑 是出了什麼問題嗎?

“iPad sales met our expectations,” Tim Cook told analysts Tuesday, “but we realize they didn’t meet many of yours.”

蘋果首席執行官蒂姆o庫克上週二向分析師們表示：“iPad的銷量達到了我們的預期，但我們知道很多人對iPad的期望要更高。”

That’s a polite way of saying that he knew what was going on, even if most Apple analysts and much of the business press were clueless.

這不過是客套話，庫克真正想說的是，他知道現在是怎麼回事，即便大多數蘋果分析師和商業媒體一無所知。

(Business Insider, always happy to stick a knife in Apple and twist it, ran back-to back-headlines: “Apple … Whiffed On iPad Sales Again” and “Only IBM Can Revive Apple’s iPad Sales.”)

（素來喜歡對蘋果落井下石的新聞網站Business Insider，接連發表頭條文章“蘋果……iPad銷量再次不佳”以及“只有IBM能提振蘋果iPad銷量”。）

By Wednesday morning, Wall Street had come around. Several analysts offered clients their own explanation for why iPad sales seem to have peaked. Here’s Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster:

上週三上午，華爾街緩過神來了。對於iPad銷量爲何似乎已經見頂，數位分析師對客戶給出了自己的解釋。其中，投資銀行Piper Jaffray的吉恩o蒙斯特解釋如下：

“We think there are three reasons for the declines in iPad,” he wrote in a paragraph headed “What’s wrong with the iPad?”

在標題爲“iPad怎麼了？”的段落中，蒙斯特寫道：“我們認爲iPad銷量下滑有三個原因。”

o First, we believe that the majority of tablet market unit growth is coming from the lower end of the market and iPads are priced higher.

o 首先，我們認爲，平板電腦市場出貨量增長主要來自低端市場，而iPad定價較高。

o Second, we believe the low hanging fruit in the high-end tablet market has been captured with Apple selling 225 million iPads over the first four years. Tim Cook commented on the earnings call that the adoption of the iPad over the first four years has been better than they were expecting, perhaps suggesting the high end is becoming saturated.

o 其次，我們認爲，蘋果在前四年裏賣出2.25億部iPad，已佔據了容易攻克的那部分高端平板電腦市場。蒂姆o庫克在收益電話會議上表示，前四年iPad的銷量超出了他們的預期，這或許表明高端市場正趨於飽和。

o Lastly, given iPads are not subsidized, the replacement cycles tend to be longer compared to an iPhone.

o 再次，鑑於iPad沒有補貼，其替換週期往往比iPhone要長。

IBM’s plan to sell and service enterprise iPads could turn things around, Munster suggests. But he thinks they might get worse before they get better, especially if Apple releases an iPhone this fall with 5.5-inch diagonal screen — big enough to cannibalize iPad sales.

蒙斯特稱，IBM計劃銷售併爲企業級iPad提供服務有可能扭轉局面。但他認爲，情況在好轉之前可能會變得更糟，特別是如果蘋果在今秋發佈5.5英寸的大屏iPhone，很可能會與iPad搶奪市場。

Steve Jobs famously said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” And because iPhone profit margins are better than the iPad’s, that’s the kind of cannibalization Jobs would have loved..

史蒂夫o喬布斯有句名言：“如果你自己不革自己的命，別人會動手革你的命。”鑑於iPhone的利潤率比iPad高，iPhone搶佔iPad的市場估計是喬布斯樂見的事。

UPDATE: According to Jan Dawson, the iPad is generating revenues at a rate of about $30 billion a year, bigger than McDonald’s or Time Warner.

更新：分析師賈恩o道森稱，iPad業務每年帶來的營收約爲300億美元，比麥當勞（McDonald’s）或時代華納（Time Warner）公司全年的營收都高。

“Excuse me,” writes GigaOm’s Kevin Tofel in Why slowing iPad sales didn’t surprise Apple, “if I don’t shed any tears for Apple’s $30 billion iPad problem.”

科技媒體GigaOm的凱文o託福爾在《iPad銷量放緩爲何沒有令蘋果驚訝》一文中寫道：“抱歉，我不會爲蘋果營收300億美元的iPad銷量放緩哭泣。”