傳統電視業寄望依靠奧運會扭轉頹勢
When Brazilian marathon runner Vanderlei de Lima lit the torch in Rio on Friday, it marked the latest chapter in NBC’s decades-long bet on the commercial success of the Olympic Games.
上週五，巴西馬拉松運動員範德萊•德•利馬(Vanderlei de Lima)在里約點燃火炬（見上圖），標誌着美國全國廣播公司(NBC)對奧林匹克運動會(Olympic Games)商業成功的數十年押注翻開最新一章。
The media group, which is owned by Comcast, paid $7.8bn to extend its deal to broadcast the Olympics until 2032, having started airing the games in 1964.
康卡斯特(Comcast)旗下的這家媒體集團斥資78億美元將轉播奧運會的合同延長至2032年。NBC從1964年開始轉播奧運會。
For television companies like NBC, keen to dismiss pessimism over their future, the stakes for blockbuster events such as the Olympics have scarcely been higher.
對於NBC這樣熱衷於驅散圍繞其未來的悲觀情緒的電視公司而言，押注奧運會這類盛大賽事的賭注從未像現在這麼高。
As audiences scatter across a growing choice of screens and stream their favourite shows days or weeks after they air, live sports are viewed as a rare safe bet for traditional television. Steve Burke, NBC chief executive, predicted Rio would be the most profitable Olympics in history.
隨着觀衆面對的屏幕選擇日益增多、而且可以在播出數天乃至數週後觀看自己喜愛的節目，運動賽事實況直播被視爲傳統電視難得的安全賭注。NBC首席執行官(CEO)史蒂夫•伯克(Steve Burke)預計，里約奧運將成爲史上最賺錢的一屆奧運會。
The network says it has already sold a record $1.2bn in advertising — 20 per cent more than final revenues from the London games in 2012, even as television audiences have shrunk by a third since then.
NBC稱，廣告銷售額已經達到創紀錄的12億美元——比2012年倫敦奧運的最終廣告收入多20%，儘管自那以來電視觀衆數量縮減了三分之一。
In comparison, yearly television advertising sales have grown less than 6 per cent since 2012, according to Nielsen.
據尼爾森(Nielsen)數據顯示，相比之下，自2012年以來，年度電視廣告銷售增長不足6%。
More than three-quarters of sales for Rio came from primetime television buys, which had “gone up a bit” versus London thanks to expectations for higher ratings, said Seth Winter, vice-president of ad sales at NBC.
NBC廣告銷售副總裁塞思•溫特(Seth Winter)稱，超過四分之三的里約奧運銷售來自黃金時段廣告，該比例較倫敦奧運“上升了一些”，得益於本屆奧運會的預期收視率更高。
Big cultural moments where groups of people sit down to watch the TV have become more scarce in recent years, prompting the spike in interest from advertisers, said Colleen Leddy of Droga5, an agency that made an Olympics ad featuring swimmer Michael Phelps for Under Armour. “Brands don't think about TV in the way they used to, because it’s not the only medium any more, but events like the Olympics prove that TV is still king.”
廣告公司Droga5的科琳•萊迪(Colleen Leddy)稱，近年來，能讓成羣的人們圍坐在電視機旁的重大文化時刻越來越少了，這使得廣告商對奧運會的興趣陡增。“品牌不再像過去一樣看待電視了，因爲它不再是唯一的媒介，但是奧運會這樣的盛事證明電視仍然爲王。”Droga5曾經制作由游泳運動員邁克爾•菲爾普斯(Michael Phelps)爲Under Armour代言的奧運會廣告。
“The value to ad buyers is much higher than it was four years ago,” says Bill Day of Frank N Magid associates, which consults to broadcasters. “It’s hard to find those massive bulks of consumers anywhere, let alone in a dedicated time-defined space. In 1978, a third of households tuned in to watch Bonanza each week.”
“奧運會對廣告買家的價值比4年前高得多，”爲廣播公司提供諮詢的Frank N Magid Associates公司的比爾•戴(Bill Day)稱，“無論在哪都很難找到消費者集中的場合，更不用提在某個特定時段了。1978年，三分之一的家庭每週都會收看《伯南扎的牛仔》(Bonanza)。”
NBC is set to air a whopping 6,700 hours of live coverage from Rio across 11 channels and dozens of live streams. It is the equivalent of watching every NFL game since 2008, according to Brian Roberts, Comcast chief executive. This is expected to lift viewership after much of the London coverage was broadcast on delayed tapes, prompting outcry from audiences when results emerged on social media first.
NBC將在11個頻道、數十個直播流媒體對里約奧運會進行長達6700個小時的現場直播。據康卡斯特CEO布萊恩•羅伯茨(Brian Roberts)表示，這相當於觀看美國國家橄欖球聯盟(NFL)自2008年以來的全部比賽。倫敦奧運會的大部分賽事都是以延遲錄播的形式轉播，播出時比賽結果已經率先在社交媒體上公佈，這引發了觀衆的強烈抗議。里約奧運會以現場直播方式播出，預計將提升收視率。
However, analysts are sceptical that the boosts from events like the Olympics can thwart the tide of cord-cutting, falling cable audiences and declining advertising revenues.
然而，對於奧運會等賽事的提振效果能否逆轉訂戶退訂、有線電視觀衆數量下滑以及廣告收入下滑的大趨勢，分析師們持懷疑態度。
Television owners have had reason to be optimistic so far this summer. This year’s so-called upfronts, at which television networks lure a large chunk of advertising commitments from buyers, saw bookings rise across the large broadcasters — ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox — after three years of declines. Networks have also seen ratings inflated by coverage of the US presidential race.
今天迄今，電視廣播公司的東家有理由樂觀。從今年的預售（電視廣播公司吸引買家作出大量廣告承諾）可以看出，在經歷了3年下滑後，美國廣播公司(ABC)、哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)、NBC和福克斯(Fox)等大型電視廣播公司的預售都有所增加。電視廣播公司還發現，美國總統競選的相關報道提高了收視率。
But the question looming over media owners is whether these larger audiences can be sustained once the fanfare has ended.
但是困擾這些媒體東家的問題是，當這一切喧譁結束後，電視能否留住擴大的觀衆羣體。
“The stage is set for a dramatic decline (in TV advertising) in 2017, when both political spending and Olympics-spend disappear,” said Rich Greenfield of BTIG. “Ratings are still pretty horrible. The media industry’s problem is there isn’t an Olympics every week.”
“2017年（電視廣告）預計將出現顯著下滑，因爲那時將失去政治廣告投入和奧運會廣告，”BTIG的裏奇•格林菲爾德(Rich Greenfield)稱，“收視率仍然很糟糕。媒體行業的問題是，不是每週都有奧運會。”
There is little sign that the cord-cutting trend is waning. In the second quarter of this year, some of the largest cable and satellite providers — Verizon, AT&T, Comcast and Dish — shed a combined 375,000 TV customers.
沒有什麼跡象表明有線用戶退訂的趨勢在減弱。今年第二季度，一些最大規模的有線電視和衛星電視提供商——Verizon、AT&T、康卡斯特和Dish——總計流失了37.5萬電視顧客。
Meanwhile, digital advertising is projected to outpace television advertising for the first time next year, as brands look to reach a younger generation that has eschewed cable boxes in favour of streaming video.
與此同時，隨着各品牌希望觸及那些唾棄有線電視盒、轉而歡迎流視頻的年輕一代，預計明年數字化廣告將首次超越電視廣告。
Nearly 8 in 10 millennials said they would stream the Olympics live online, and 7 in 10 would do so on a mobile phone, according to a survey by the Rubicon Project.
Rubicon Project的調查顯示，在千禧一代中，每10個人裏有8個人表示會在網上觀看奧運會直播，有7個人將在手機上觀看直播。
NBC has acknowledged the need to appeal to cord-cutters, even as it holds a tight grip over Olympics coverage. The network has for the first time allowed some social media companies, such as Snapchat and Facebook, rights to distribute highlights and clips of athlete interviews to drum up interest for the games.
NBC承認吸引退訂用戶的必要性，即使它牢牢攥住了奧運會轉播權。該電視廣播公司首次允許Snapchat和Facebook等社交媒體發佈精彩場面和運動員採訪片段，以此勾起人們對奧運會的興趣。
Meanwhile, Comcast is focused on capitalising on the Olympics frenzy to convince its customers of the value of their monthly cable TV bill.
與此同時，康卡斯特正專注於利用這股奧運熱情向其客戶證明他們每月有線電視賬單的價值。
The largest US cable-TV provider is pumping out Olympics coverage through its new high-tech cable box, called the X1 — a robot-esque TV guide that Comcast compares to Amazon’s digital assistant, Alexa. The X1 will provide “one integrated Olympics dashboard”, through which viewers can speak commands into a remote to search between live cable programmes, digitally streamed highlight reels and videos, and real-time scoreboards. The box has been rolled out to about 40 per cent of Comcast’s 22m video subscribers.
這家美國最大的有線電視提供商正通過其新款高科技有線盒子輸送奧運直播內容。這款名爲X1的盒子是機器人般的電視指南，康卡斯特將其與亞馬遜(Amazon)的數字化助手Alexa相提並論。X1將提供“集成的奧運會儀表盤”，觀衆可以向遙控器說出指令，在有線直播節目、數字化精彩集錦流視頻和實時獎牌榜之間搜索。在康卡斯特2200萬視頻訂戶中，約有40%的訂戶使用這款盒子。
Comcast’s chief has called the X1’s Olympics platform a “laboratory” for the “future of television”. The 53-year-old company, which lost 4,000 TV customers last quarter, has placed a $7.8bn gamble that he will be proven right.
康卡斯特的CEO稱X1的奧運平臺是探索“未來電視”的實驗室。這家擁有53年曆史的公司在上個季度失去了4000個電視顧客，它押注了78億美元打賭其CEO判斷正確。
