人們生活中10大思維誤區(圖)

The human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, (I myself have been prone to several) and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.

人類的思維很奇妙。思考的過程是認識，能夠幫助我們很快的從很多信息找到我們想要的。舉例來說，每時每刻你的眼睛是睜着的，你的大腦每時每刻在被大量的信息所刺激。但你能夠專心的思想一件事，雖然你的大腦正在處理成千上萬的下意識的事情。不幸的是，我們的認識力還不夠完美，所以我們很容易犯一些固定模式的錯誤。衆所周知在一些心理學的認識偏見裏。這些發生在每個人身上，不會因年齡，性別，教育，智商或其他因素而不同。一些是我們熟知的，但也有些不是，不過很多都很有意思。肯定一些會在我們身邊的一些人身上發生（我本人就有好幾個），在以後發生的時候我們可以驗證一下。

10Gambler’s Fallacy

The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that theprobabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking theprobabilities have changed.

10賭徒的謬論

賭徒的謬論是指過去發生的事情會影響未來事件的發生，但是事實上，不是這樣的。舉個例子，當你投一枚正常的硬幣時，出現頭像的概率總是50%，這些固定的概率不會因爲連續出現了10次背面而改變。認爲這些會改變是一種常見的偏見，尤其是在賭博的時候。當我在玩賭博輪的時候，最後4個數字全是黑的，那麼下次會是紅的？錯！出現紅的概率還是47.37％（18個紅區和38個黑區）。這個聽起來明顯，但是未來會改變的偏見已經讓很多賭徒輸錢了。

9Reactivity

Reactivity is the tendency of people to act or appear differently when they know that they are being observed. In the 1920s, Hawthorne Works (a manufacturing facility) commissioned a study to see if different levels of light influenced worker productivity. What they found was incredible, changing the light caused productivity to soar! Unfortunately, when the study was finished, productivity levels decreased to their regular levels. This was because the change in productivity was not due to the light levels, but to the workers being watched. This demonstrated a form of reactivity; when individuals know they are being watched, they are motivated to change their behavior, generally to make themselves look better. Reactivity is a serious problem in research, and has to be controlled in blind experiments (“Blind” is when individuals involved in a research study are purposely withheld information so as not to influence the outcomes).

9反映

反應是指當人們發覺他們被觀察的時候會表現的與衆不同。在19世紀20年代，Hawthorne Works（一家生產企業）做了一個實驗，來看看在不同的光線條件下員工的生產率。他們的發現難以置信，光線的改變增加了很多生產力！可惜當這個研究被完成的時候，實驗生產力低於他們的正常生產力。不是因爲光線沒有在最合適的水平，而是因爲員工發現他們被觀察了，他們就改變了他們的行爲模式，爲了使他們看上去更好看。在研究中反應是一個很嚴肅的問題，而且已經在盲人實驗中使用了。（盲人是指，當個體在被進行實驗時，他們被要求不要因外界條件的改變而改變）

8Pareidolia

Pareidolia is when random images or sounds are perceived as significant. Seeing clouds in the shapes of dinosaurs, Jesus on a hot pocket, or hearing messages when a record is played backward are common examples of pareidolia. The common element is that the stimulus is neutral, it does not have intentional meaning; the meaning is in the viewer’s perception.

Interesting Fact: the Rorschach Inkblot test was developed to use pareidolia to tap into people’s mental states. Testees are shown images of ambiguous pictures, and asked to describe what they see. Responses are analyzed to discover the testee’s hidden thoughts.

8空想性視覺

空想性視覺是指在感覺上隨機出現的圖片和聲音，就好像看到了一樣。在雲上看到恐龍的形狀，在一種流行的口袋上看到上帝，或者在背景有信息在播放時，好像聽到信息了似的。這些都是空想性行爲的常見例子。這個共同的特徵就是這個刺激是中立的，並沒有特殊的意思，沒有觀察者的感覺在內。

有趣的現象，RorschachInkblot test是用空想性行爲來幫助人們記憶。實驗是用一些不清楚的圖片，來問別人他們看到了什麼，實驗者的反應被用來發現他們隱藏着的信息。

7Self-fulfilling Prophecy

Self-fulfilling prophecy is engaging in behaviors that obtain results that confirm existing attitudes. A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. For example, I believe that I am going to do poorly in school, so I decrease the effort I put into my assignments and studying, and I end up doing poorly, just as I thought. Another common example is relationships; I think my relationship with my significant other is going to fail, so I start acting differently, pulling away emotionally. Because of my actions, I actually cause the relationship to fail. This is a powerful tool used by “psychics” – they implant an idea in your mind, and you eventually make it happen because you think it will.

Interesting Fact: Economic Recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Because a recession is 2 quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline, you cannot know you are in a recession until you are at least 6 months into one. Unfortunately, at the first sign of decreasing GDP, the media reports a possible recession, people panic and start a chain of events that actually cause a recession.

7 自我實現的預言

自我實現的預言是說在一些既定的想法下事情真的會發生。一個自我實現的預言就是會實現的真的預言。舉個例子，我相信我在學校裏會變窮，所以我就減少了開支，而且努力學習，最後我還是和我想的一樣變窮了。另一個常見的例子是有關關係的：我想我和其他人之間的關係會變差，於是我就開始下意識做一些不同的事。正是因爲我的這些行爲，真的使我們關係變差了。這個在心理學上被廣泛運用了—他們在你心裏做出暗示，那麼那件事就真的會發生，因爲你認爲它會發生。

有趣的現象：經濟衰退就是一件自我實現的預言。因爲衰退指國內生產總值（GDP）減少一半,直到最後6個月的時候你纔會發現自己處於衰退之中。不幸的是，因爲看到了GDP的減少，媒體報道了衰退的可能性，人們就開始恐慌，然後引發了一系列的事情，最後導致經濟衰退。

6Halo effect

The Halo effect is the tendency for an individual’s positive or negative trait to “spill over” to other areas of their personality in others’ perceptions of them. This bias happens a lot in employee performance appraisals. For example: my employee, Biff, has been late to work the past three days; I notice this and conclude that Biff is lazy and does not care about his job. There are many possible reasons why Biff was late, perhaps his car broke down, his babysitter did not show up, or there has been bad weather. The problem is, because of one negative aspect that may be out of Biff’s control, I assume that he is a bad worker.

Interesting Fact: The Physical Attractiveness Stereotype is when people assume that attractive individuals possess other socially desirable qualities, such as happiness, success and intelligence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when attractive people are given privileged treatment such as better job opportunities and higher salaries.

6 暈輪效應

暈輪效應就是說一個人積極或消極的特點會“傳播”給其他人，影響其他人的感覺。這一偏見在評估員工表現的時候會發生。我的員工Biff已經有3天遲到了，我注意到這一現象，得出結論Biff懶惰而且不關心自己的工作。有很多Biff的理由，大概他的車子拋錨了，他的看孩子的那個臨時工沒有是上班，要麼是天氣原因。但問題是，因爲很多不能被Biff控制的消極原因，我認爲Biff是個壞員工。

有趣的現象：吸引人的行爲固定模式是，當人們假設吸引人的個體有其他人所沒有的特徵，像開心，成功，和聰明之類的。這就會是一個自我實現的預言，那麼這些就會有一些特殊的待遇，像更好的工作機會或更高的收入。

5Herd Mentality

Herd mentality is the tendency to adopt the opinions and follow the behaviors of the majority to feel safer and to avoid conflict. Also known as “Mob Mentality,” this is, at its most common form, peer pressure. Herd mentality explains why fads get so popular. Clothes, cars, hobbies, styles, all it takes is a group of people who think something is cool, and it catches on.

Interesting Fact: things that are unattractive, or that would never seem cool or popular now have had huge followings due to herd mentality. Examples include parachute pants, pet rocks, mullets, cone bras, tie-dye, sea monkeys, and the 1980s (by the way, that is an ’80s guy in the picture above).

5 從衆心理

從衆效應是指跟隨或採取和大多數人一樣的行爲來使自己感覺安全或避免爭鬥的一種趨勢。大家都知道的“暴動效應”就是在一般的行爲模式，同齡人的壓力下發生的。從衆效應解釋了時尚會流行原因。像衣服，車子，愛好，風格。所有的一切都是在一羣認爲這很酷，而且付諸實踐的人身上發生的。

有趣的現象：一些不吸引人，從不顯得酷或流行的事情因爲從衆效應現在有了一大羣跟隨者，降落傘褲，寵物石，胭脂魚髮型，錐臂，染髮，海猴子，還有80後都是很好的例子。（上圖就是一80後）

4Reactance

Reactance is the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. This is common with rebellious teenagers, but any attempt to resist authority due to perceived threats to freedom and/or choice is reactance. The individual may not have a need to do the specific behavior, however the fact that they cannot do it makes them want to.

Interesting Fact: “reverse psychology” is an attempt to influence people using reactance. Tell someone (particularly children) to do the opposite of what you really want, and they will rebel and actually end up doing what you want.

4反抗

反抗就是說和其他人希望我們做的反着做，或者說你希望是按着自己的選擇而其他人想要你去做其他事。這些在叛逆期的青少年中很常見，但是因爲對於自由的選擇，而又任何想要來反對權威的倒行逆施，就是反抗。個體可能不需要有一些特別的行爲，而是他們不能做從而導致他們很想得到這些。

有趣的事實：“逆向心理方法”是一種使用反抗來影響別人的方法。告訴對象（尤其是孩子）做和你實際上想幹的相反的事，然後他們就會反抗，最終就會做你其實想要的事。

3Hyperbolic Discounting

Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it is interesting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?

3雙曲線貼現

雙曲線貼現是指人們更傾向於小額的，現時的支付而不是後來大筆的支付的傾向。很多研究表明在決策方面，有很多因素的導致個人決策過程。有意思的是，延後的時間是在做出改變的一個很主要的因素。絕大多數人希望今天能得到20美元而不是今天起1年後得到100美元。正常來說，應該馬上選擇錢多的一方而不是選擇較少的，在未來的錢會比今天或者明天的錢更值錢，假設利率是9％，在此利率下，一個神志清楚的人會選擇現在拿91.74美元，或者1年後拿100美元，然而，這一有趣的現象我們是多麼想要現在拿到而不是等待一年以後。你是希望一年後拿100美元，還是現在拿50美元？那40美元呢？什麼纔是你的底線？

2Escalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment is the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful endeavors. With all the decisions people have to make, it is unavoidable that some will be unsuccessful. Of course, the logical thing to do in these instances is to change that decision or try to reverse it. However, sometimes individuals feel compelled not only to stick with their decision, but also to further invest in that decision because they have sunk costs. For example, say you use half of your life savings to start a business. After 6 months, it is evident that the business is going to be unsuccessful. The logical thing to do would be to “cut your losses” and drop the business. However, due to the sunk costs of your life savings, you feel committed to the business and invest even more money into the project hoping that the additional cash will turn the business around.

2增加投入

增加投入是指人們願意繼續以前沒有完成的，但付出過努力的事物的傾向。人們所做的全部決定，不可避免得會有很多不會成功。當然邏輯上這些事情將會改變決策。但是，有時候人們覺得被強迫的不僅僅是繼續他們的決策，而且還要那個決策的追加投入，因爲有沉沒成本。舉例來說，你用你半輩子的積蓄來開個公司。6個月後，顯然你的公司很不成功。邏輯上講你應該“去除你的損失”，就是說關閉企業。但是由於你的積蓄已經是沉沒成本了，你覺得需要增加更多的錢來繼續這家公司。並且希望這些新增投資能夠使公司扭虧爲盈。

1Placebo Effect

The Placebo effect is when an ineffectual substance that is believed to have healing properties produces the desired effect. Especially common with medications, the placebo effect has been observed when individuals given a sugar pill for a real ailment report improvement. Placebos are still a scientific mystery. It is theorized that placebos cause an “Expectancy Effect”, (In cases of uncertainty, expectation is what is most likely to happen) individuals expect the pills to cure their ailments, so they feel cured. However, this does not explain how the ineffectual pills actually cause a reduction in symptoms.

Interesting Fact: The term “Placebo” is used when the outcomes are considered favorable, when the outcomes are negative or harmful; the term is “Nocebo”

1 安慰劑效應

安慰劑效應是指當相信沒有用的東西能夠治癒某些疾病時，這些安慰劑真的能夠發揮作用。

在藥物當中最爲常見，安慰劑效應被用來觀察一些慢性病的改善，其實給患者的是糖片。安慰劑在科學上仍然是個謎。安慰劑被提出是引起“期望效果”（指那些不確定的，很期望發生的事），人們期望藥片能夠治療他們的慢性病，所以他們被治好了。然而這些不能解釋無效的藥物實際上怎麼減少不良症狀的。

有趣的事實：安慰劑這一名詞被用來說明當結果看起來不錯時，如果結果不盡人意時，稱之爲“反安慰劑”。