英語圈實力不減:唱衰英語者醒醒吧大綱

China’s enrollment figures in private English as a Second Language (ESL) courses and related test preparation programs continue their longstanding high growth rates.

長期以來，中國報名參加英語學習及相關考前培訓的人數持續高速增長。

Despite some prominent observers in the U.S. and U.K. lamenting the decline of these great countries and offering pessimistic views about the future, younger Chinese still correlate good English language ability with career success. This is sensible, practical, and smart.

儘管美英兩國的一些主流觀察家都在哀嘆美英地位的衰落，對未來充滿了悲觀情緒，但中國的年輕一代依然認爲出衆的英語能力是關乎事業成功的重要因素。這種看法非常明智和務實。

An article in the Winter 2012 edition of the quarterly “City Journal” offers comparative profiles of the economic clout of the countries they describe as the “Anglosphere” (U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Ireland) and those which comprise the “Sinosphere” (Greater China, including Taiwan and the Hong Kong and Macau S.A.R.s).

《City Journal》2012（冬季刊）刊登了一篇文章，對所謂的“英語圈”（美、英、加拿大、澳大利亞、新西蘭、愛爾蘭）與“漢語圈”（包括臺灣、香港、澳門在內的大中華區）的經濟實力進行了一番對比。

The authors, Joel Kotkin and Shashi Parulekar, take the view that despite many challenges, the Anglosphere is alive and well:

該文作者Joel Kotkin和Shashi Parulekar認爲，雖然英語圈面臨着重重困難，但狀態依然安好：

It’s indisputable that the Anglosphere no longer enjoys the overwhelming global dominance that it once had. What was once a globe-spanning empire is now best understood as a union of language, culture, and shared values. Yet what declinists overlook is that despite its current economic problems, the Anglosphere’s fundamental assets — economic, political, demographic, and cultural — are likely to drive its continued global leadership. The Anglosphere future is brighter than commonly believed.

英語圈曾主宰全球的時代已一去不返，這一點無可爭辯。曾經一統天下的英語帝國如今只能作爲語言、文化和共同價值的聯合體。但“唱衰者”們忽略了一點，雖然目前經濟問題重重，但英語圈的根本——經濟、政治、人口、文化——仍會保持世界領先地位。英語圈的未來比人們通常認爲的都更加光明。

In economic terms, using purchasing power parity data, the Anglosphere remains by far the world’s largest economic bloc, representing more than 25% of world GDP.

按照經濟學中的購買力等價數據統計，英語圈至今仍是全球最大的經濟體，代表了全球25%的GDP。

The Sinosphere is a strong second, accounting for just more than 15%. India, by comparison, accounts for some 5.4% of world GDP.

漢語圈勢頭強勁，排名第二，但GDP只佔全球15%多一點。相比之下，印度在全球GDP中所佔的比例爲5.4%。

The Anglosphere’s per capita GDP is more than 5 times that of the Sinosphere, and 13 times that of India.

英語圈的人均GDP相當於漢語圈的5倍，是印度的13倍。

Although the Sinosphere has experienced explosive growth in the number of companies large enough in revenue terms to make the FORTUNE Global 500 list, it still has a long way to go in terms of having big global companies which are also widely admired for their innovation, their values, governance and management style.

雖然漢語圈按公司收入能躋身《財富》世界500強的大企業在數量上經歷了爆炸性的增長，但想要擁有在創新、價值觀、公司治理、管理方式等各方面都廣受尊重的大型跨國企業，該地區還有很長的路要走。

Due in part to educational and legal infrastructure (e.g. intellectual property protection), the Anglosphere is home to the vast majority of the world’s software, biotech, and aerospace companies – industries where R & D and innovation are crucial elements of success.

考慮到教育和法律基礎建設（如：知識產權保護）的緣故，世界主要軟件、生物技術和航天企業多選擇在英語圈落戶，因爲這些行業的成功很大程度上取決於研發和創新。

In countries lacking an adequate intellectual property rights protection regime, for example, companies will not invest the huge sums required to develop big new high-tech products. The current estimated average investment in R & D to develop a major new pharmaceutical product is in the range of US$1 billion.

例如，在缺乏適當知識產權保護的國家，企業不會投巨資開發大型高新科技產品。目前開發一劑重點新藥的平均投資預計應在10億美元左右。

The article also states that some 40% of Europeans speak English versus 19% who speak French; while pointing out that English has been formally or informally embraced as an important language of business and science in many developing countries, including India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Obviously this phenomenon is rooted in large part to a legacy of the colonial era, but English has survived the test of time for practical reasons. That is unlikely to change any time soon.

文章還指出，歐洲人中有40%會講英語，但只有19%會說法語；同時還指出，在包括印度、馬來西亞、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、尼日利亞、肯尼亞、南非在內的一些發展中國家，英語在商務和科學領域中被正式或非正式地作爲重要語言。當然，這種現象很大程度上帶有殖民時代的烙印，但英語憑藉其實用性還是經歷住了時間的考驗，而且這種狀況在短時間內不會有所改變。

One other factor which the authors cite as a positive force for relative Anglosphere economic growth is demographics. Between 2000 and 2050, the US workforce is projected to grow by 37%. During the same time frame, due to aging, China’s workforce is projected to shrink by 10%, and Japan’s by 40%.

作者提到另一個促進英語圈經濟增長的積極因素是人口。從2000年至2050年，美國的勞動力預計將增長37%，而同期中國的勞動力將減少10%，日本將減少40%。

Immigration trends are also a contributing factor, During the past ten years, 14 million people immigrated legally to the Anglosphere. In 2005 alone, among the top ten countries around the world in terms of immigrant arrivals, the US accepted more new immigrants than the next nine countries combined.

箇中緣由少不了提到移民潮。過去十年，前往英語圈的合法移民達到1,400萬人。2005年在全世界接納移民最多的十個國家中，美國接納的移民數量超過了另外九個國家的總和。

The moral of the story is that for young people in China considering their career plans, good abilities in both English and Chinese language will be extremely valuable assets no matter which direction they want to go.

由此可見，對那些正在規劃職業道路的中國年輕人來說，無論朝哪個方向發展，良好的中、英文語言能力都極具價值。

One more word of advice to my younger friends: first and second language studies do not end with graduation. That’s really where they begin. So, study hard, and be prepared to keep it up for your whole lifetime. The time and effort invested will produce some of the best dividends you can imagine.

我還要多勸年輕朋友們一句：學習母語也好，外語也好，都不能以畢業作爲終點，其實那只是起點而已。要時刻努力，並作好終身學習的準備。你投入的時間和精力會爲你帶來可以想見的最好的回報。