學生貸款對經濟產生的漣漪效應

What are the roads not taken because Students must take out loans for college? A collection of studies shows that the burden of student debt may well cause people to make different decisions than they would otherwise — affecting not just individual lives but also the entire economy.

一些學生由於不得不舉債上大學，他們未來所選擇的道路會有什麼不同嗎？一系列研究表明，學生貸款的壓力很可能會促使人們做出與沒有貸款壓力時不同的決定——這不僅會影響個人生活，而且還會影響整個經濟。

For one thing, it appears that people with student loans are less likely to start businesses of their own. A new study has found that areas with higher relative growth in student debt show lower growth in the formation of small businesses (in this case, firms with one to four employees).

首先，似乎揹負學生貸款的人自己創業的可能性較小。一項新研究發現，在學生貸款增長率相對較高的地區，小公司（這裏指擁有1到4名僱員的公司）的創辦率較低。

The correlation makes sense. People normally have only a certain amount of "debt capacity," said Brent W. Ambrose, a professor of risk management at Pennsylvania State University and a co-author of a preliminary paper on the research along with Larry Cordell and Shuwei Ma of the Federal Reserve bank of Philadelphia.

這種相關性有一定的道理。人們通常只有一定的“借債能力”，賓夕法尼亞州立大學(Pennsylvania State University)風險管理教授布倫特·W·安布羅斯(Brent W. Ambrose)說。他與費城聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)的拉里·科德爾(Larry Cordell)和馬書偉（音譯）做過一項研究，而且還是該研究的一篇初期論文的作者之一。

When students use up their debt capacity on student loans, they can't commit it elsewhere. "Given the importance of an entrepreneur's personal debt capacity in financing a start-up business, student loan debt, which cannot be discharged via bankruptcy, can have lasting effects later in life and may impact the ability of future small-business owners to raise capital," the study says.

如果學生在學生貸款上用完了自己的借債能力，他們就無法再去別處借債了。研究表示，“由於需要爲初創公司融資，企業家的個人借債能力很重要，而無法通過破產來免除的學生貸款可能會對債務人今後的生活產生持續影響，可能還會影響未來的小型企業業主籌集資金的能力。”

Considering that 60 percent of jobs are created by small business, "if you shut down the ability to create new businesses, you're going to harm the economy," Professor Ambrose said.

由於60%的就業崗位都是小型企業創造的，安布羅斯說，“如果扼殺了人們的創業能力，就會給經濟帶來損傷。”

Student loan debt also appears to be affecting homeownership trends. According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, fewer 30-year-olds in general have bought homes since the recession, but the decline has been steeper for people with a history of student loan debt and has continued even as the housing market has recovered.

學生貸款似乎還會影響私人購房趨勢。根據紐約聯邦儲備銀行的研究，自經濟衰退以來，30歲人羣的購房率普遍降低，但是對於有學生貸款歷史的人羣而言，購房率的降低更爲嚴重，而且甚至在房產市場恢復後，這種情況仍在繼續。

Total student loans outstanding have risen to $1.1 trillion, compared with $300 billion just a decade ago, according to the Fed's study. The average total debt for student borrowers was around $30,000 in 2013. No wonder borrowers have been reluctant to start businesses or to buy homes.

目前，學生未償貸款總額已增至1.1萬億美元（約合6.8萬億元人民幣），而10年前，這個數字僅爲3000億美元。2013年，學生借款人的平均債務總額在3萬美元左右。難怪借款人不願意創業或購房。

Student loan debt may also affect career choices. Having a college loan appears to reduce the likelihood that people will choose a low-paying public-interest job, according to a 2011 study by Jesse Rothstein of the University of California, Berkeley, and Cecilia Elena Rouse of Princeton.

學生貸款或許還會對職業選擇造成影響。加州大學伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)的傑西·羅思坦(Jesse Rothstein)和普林斯頓大學(Princeton)的塞西莉亞·埃琳娜·勞斯(Cecilia Elena Rouse)2011年的一項研究表明，如果揹負着學生貸款，人們選擇低報酬的公益工作的可能性似乎就會降低。

They arrived at their conclusion by studying a well-off university that began meeting students' financial needs through a combination of work-study money and grants, and dispensing with loans altogether. (The school insisted on anonymity as a condition for participating in the study.)

他們的結論來自對一所資金雄厚的大學的研究。通過半工半讀的報酬和補助金，以及全面免用貸款，這所富裕大學開始滿足學生的經濟需求。（作爲參與研究的條件，這所學校要求匿名。)

Before the new policy started in the early 2000s, students were more likely to choose well-paid professions like investment banking and consulting, Professor Rothstein said in an interview. After the policy took effect, more students chose jobs in areas like teaching and the nonprofit sector.

這項舉措於21世紀頭10年初期開始實施。在它實施以前，學生更傾向於選擇投資銀行和諮詢等報酬豐厚的職業，羅思坦在採訪中說。該舉措生效後，越來越多的學生選擇了教學和非盈利性質的工作。

In many cases, the choices that student borrowers make are just common sense, based on the financial realities they face. Taken together, they seem to be having a substantive — many would say negative — effect on the economy.

在許多情況下，學生借款人所做的選擇只是人之常情，是根據他們所面對的現實經濟狀況做出的決定。總體來看，這些選擇似乎對經濟產生了重大——許多人會說是負面的影響。

Is that enough reason for schools or the government to step in with a solution? Not many schools are like Anon U (as the researchers above called it), which could afford to take loans off the table. If society wants to change the skewing effect of student loans, some tough decisions about allocating educational resources may well lie ahead.

這個理由足以讓學校或政府拿出一個解決方案嗎？沒有很多學校像Anon U大學（前述研究者對這所學校的稱呼）一樣有能力免用貸款。如果社會希望改變學生貸款所帶來的扭曲性影響，有關部門就應該立即做出一些關於教育資源分配的困難抉擇。