關注社會:亞洲大米供應過剩問題可能加劇

Asia is awash in rice, as favorable weather and government support for farmers combine to produce a bumper crop.

亞洲大米滿倉，有利的天氣條件加上政府支援農民的舉措使水稻獲得了豐收。

The glut is driving down prices for big rice importers in Africa and China. But consumers in some of the biggest rice-producing nations, including Thailand and India, are paying higher prices as surplus supplies sit in government warehouses. Asia's surplus will have little impact in the U.S., which produces different varieties of rice.

對非洲主要大米進口國和中國來說，供應過剩開始壓低進口價格。但隨著過剩的大米囤在政府的倉庫裡，包括泰國和印度在內的一些水稻生產大國的消費者開始支付更高的價格。亞洲大米供應過剩對美國的影響微乎其微，因為美國種植的水稻品種與亞洲不同。

When traveling by train from New Delhi to neighboring states, a common sight in the countryside is rice piled high on wooden plinths, protected only by plastic tarps. In Thailand, the government has considered using a warehouse at the city's old airport to store rice because other storage facilities are full.

從新德里乘火車到臨近的幾個邦，沿途常常可以看到農村地區大米高高地堆在木製基座上，上面只用塑料防雨布遮蓋。在泰國，政府一直在考慮使用一箇舊機場的倉庫儲存大米，因為其他儲藏設施都已經滿了。

The surplus is the result of good weather and government programs that encourage rice growing. World rice stockpiles are expected to rise 2% this year, the ninth consecutive annual increase, according to the London-based International Grains Council.

造成水稻產量過剩的原因是良好的天氣條件和政府鼓勵水稻種植的計劃。據倫敦國際穀物協會(International Grains Council)說，預計今年全球大米儲量將上升2%，連續第九年出現增長。

Analysts see the glut getting worse. Thailand, a top exporter, is trying to sell some of its own 17 million-ton surplus, the result of a subsidy program in which the government bought rice from farmers at above-market prices. India, the world's biggest exporter, is expecting near-record harvests in a couple of months, as is Pakistan. Meanwhile, demand from large importers, including the Philippines and Nigeria, is dropping.

分析人士認為供應過剩的局面將加劇。主要大米出口國泰國正努力銷售部分過剩大米，該國有1,700萬噸過剩大米。泰國水稻生產過剩的原因在於政府的一項補貼計劃。根據該計劃，政府以高於市場價格的水平從農民手中收購大米。世界最大的大米出口國印度幾個月後有望實現接近歷史最高水平的大豐收，巴基斯坦也是如此。與此同時，包括菲律賓和奈及利亞在內的主要大米進口國的需求開始下滑。

'If Thailand is successful in offloading its rice, it will certainly put downward pressure on prices,' said Darren Cooper, a senior economist with the International Grains Council.

國際穀物協會的高階經濟學家庫珀(Darren Cooper)說，如果泰國成功地處理掉過剩的大米，無疑將給價格帶來下行壓力。

The council's index of global rice prices fell to 200 on Friday, its lowest since September 2010 and down almost 5% this year. However, prices vary widely from country to country, because rice is largely sold where it is produced. Just 8% is traded internationally, compared with about 20% for wheat and 36% for soybeans.

國際穀物協會發布的全球大米價格指數上週五跌至200，是2010年9月以來的最低水平，較今年年初跌了近5%。不過，由於大米主要在生產國國內銷售，各國的大米價格相差很大。只有8%的大米在全球買賣，相比之下，小麥約為20%，大豆為36%。

In Vietnam's spot market, prices are down about 5% this year, with one of the most heavily traded varieties, 5% broken rice, trading at about $390 a ton. In Thailand, 5% broken rice for export trades at $475 a ton, down 16% this year.

在越南的現貨市場，大米價格較今年年初跌了約5%，其中交易量最大的大米品種之一──5%碎米──價格約為每噸390美元。在泰國，5%碎米的出口價格為每噸475美元，較今年年初降了16%。

The only widely traded rice futures contract, offered by CME Group Inc. and reflecting U.S. prices, is up 7% this year, ending Tuesday at $15.895 for 100 pounds. The two markets tend to move independently.

唯一廣泛交易的大米期貨合約較今年年初上漲了7%，週二收於每100磅15.895美元。該期貨合約由芝加哥商業交易所控股公司(CME Group Inc.)提供，可以反映美國的價格。上述兩個市場的走勢通常是相互獨立的。

The tightly regulated and fragmented rice market means consumers and the needy have seen little benefit from the oversupply. Some aid groups favor handouts before stocks deteriorate, while others said governments should encourage a move to other crops by cutting guaranteed prices to farmers.

受到嚴格監管且分散的大米市場意味著，消費者和貧困人口並未從供應過剩中獲得什麼好處。一些援助組織贊成在儲存的大米變質前派發大米，而其他人則說，政府應該下調對農民的保證價格，進而鼓勵農民改種其他農作物。

While farmers have benefited in Thailand, prices in supermarkets there are up 10% since 2011 due to tight supply. Even as government stockpiles ballooned, traders in Thailand imported rice from Cambodia and Vietnam. The government, which is subsidizing farmers' income by buying rice at higher prices, is reluctant to sell it cheaply in the domestic market.

儘管泰國的農民獲益，但由於供應緊張，超市中大米的價格自2011年以來累計上漲了10%。就在政府大米儲量飆升之際，泰國的商人從柬埔寨和越南進口大米。政府通過以更高的價格收購大米而補貼農民收入，不願將大米在國內市場便宜出售。

India's agricultural policies have had a similar impact on its domestic prices, economists said. 'I have three school-going children to feed, and its tough on me,' said Jaya, a housemaid, who lives in a single-room house in New Delhi's crowded Tughlakabad area and buys at least 22 pounds of rice each month.

經濟學家們說，印度的農業政策對其國內大米價格產生了類似的影響。給人做傭人的賈亞(Jaya)說，我有三個上學的孩子要養，這令我們過得很苦。她住在新德里擁擠的Tughlakabad地區，房子裡只有一個房間，每個月要買至少22磅（合10公斤）大米。