美国农场主关注特朗普对华贸易政策

US trade policies under Donald Trump will be key to agricultural commodities next year, as the world continues to grapple with high levels of grain production and inventories, according to a leading forecaster.

一家领先的预测机构表示，在全球继续应对谷物产量和库存双双高企的局面之际，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下的美国贸易政策将是影响明年农业大宗商品市场的关键因素。

“The area of concern is whether anything is going to happen that is going to affect our trade with China, which is a big agricultural buyer,” said Don Riffe, senior vice-president for agribusiness intelligence unit at Informa, a key grains forecaster whose data are widely followed by market participants.

咨询公司Informa农商情报部门高级副总裁唐.里费(Don Riffe)表示：“令人担忧的是，会否发生什么事情影响我们与农产品大买家中国之间的贸易。”Informa是一家主要的谷物预测机构，其数据受到市场参与者的广泛关注。

Mr Trump’s anti-globalisation campaign platform during the elections has raised concerns about protectionist economic policies and the impact on US imports and exports of commodities, especially with China.

特朗普在竞选期间的反全球化政策纲领令人担忧他会推行保护主义的经济政策，从而对美国的大宗商品进出口——尤其是与中国之间的大宗商品贸易——造成影响。

Despite concerns about China’s economic growth slowdown earlier in the year, agricultural exports to the country have remained firm, especially from the US in the face of drought and adverse weather in Brazil and Argentina.

尽管今年早些时候出现了对中国经济增长放缓的担忧，但各国对华农产品出口基本保持稳定，尤其是美国对中国的出口，至于巴西和阿根廷则受到了干旱和恶劣天气的影响。

China’s active imports of soyabeans from the US have kept the commodity at about $10 a bushel even in the face of record world production, which Informa estimates to have totalled 340.5m tonnes in 2016/17.

即便全球大豆产量创纪录——Informa估计2016/17年度大豆总产量达3.405亿吨——但中国从美国的大量进口，使大豆价格得以保持在10美元/蒲式耳左右。

Informa expects farmers, especially in the US, to switch their crops out of corn into soya, and the planted area to rise in 2017/18 to 125.5m hectares, up 4 per cent from the year before. World production of the oilseed is predicted to decline marginally to 338.9m tonnes, but usage is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to 340.3m tonnes.

Informa预计农民，特别是美国农民，将把作物从玉米换成大豆，2017/2018年度大豆种植面积料增加到1.255亿公顷，比上年增长4%。油籽全球产量预计略微下降至3.389亿吨，但使用量料将增加3.5%至3.403亿吨。

Production levels for key grains including wheat, rice and corn are also forecast to fall slightly after a year of record output in 2016/17, although they are still elevated.

小麦、大米和玉米等关键谷物的产量水平预计也将轻微下滑，但仍然处在较高水平。2016/2017年度这些谷物产量创下记录。

Supplies of grains and oilseeds remain plentiful, and “we are looking at another year ahead where there’s abundant supplies”, said Mr Riffe.

里费表示，谷物和油籽供应仍然充足，“我们认为来年还将供应充足。”

For corn, Informa expects production to fall almost 4 per cent to 1bn tonnes in 2017/18, helping inventories to decline about 14 per cent to 195.6m tonnes. Wheat production is expected to fall back 1 per cent to 736.6m tonnes, although with usage also dropping, inventories are forecast at another record high of 247.7m tonnes.

玉米方面，Informa预计2017/2018年度的产量将下降近4%至10亿吨，有助于将库存减少约14%至1.956亿吨。预计小麦产量将下降1%至7.366亿吨，但使用量也会下降，预计库存将达到2.477亿吨的又一新高。

While adverse weather is always a risk, other forecasters have noted volatility in the global currency markets as a potential cause for volatility for agricultural commodity prices during 2017.

虽然恶劣天气总是一大风险，但其他预测机构指出，全球外汇市场的波动将是造成2017年农业大宗商品价格波动的潜在原因。

In its annual outlook, Rabobank said the euro was likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections during 2017. This will be good for European farm exports. The fall in the pound after the Brexit vote in June has pushed up British grain exports to the highest level for almost 20 years, the bank said.

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)在年度展望报告中表示，法国、荷兰和德国在2017年的选举很可能导致欧元贬值。这将有利于欧洲农产品出口。该银行表示，6月份英国脱欧公投后英镑下跌，推动英国谷物出口达到近20年来最高水平。