普京到底想向特朗普要什么

Cuddle up to the Kremlin and do not be surprised when you are burnt. There is no need to believe the lurid, unverified tales about Russian efforts to cultivate and compromise Donald Trump to recognise the danger in the president-elect’s infatuation with Vladimir Putin. Mr Trump is a wealthy property developer; the Russian president a former head of his country’s ruthless Federal Security Service, or FSB. This is not a balanced match-up.

拥抱克里姆林宫吧，当你被烧伤时，不要感到惊讶。我们不需要相信关于俄罗斯努力扶植和可能勒索唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的骇人听闻、未经证实的故事，就能意识到这位当选总统盲目崇拜弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)的危险。特朗普是一个富有的房地产开发商；这位俄罗斯总统是该国无情的联邦安全局(FSB)的前任领导人。两人根本不势均力敌。

Mr Putin has pocketed one significant victory even before Mr Trump reaches the White House. The next time US intelligence agencies flag up a security threat — another Russian incursion into Ukraine, say, or the subversion of elected governments in eastern Europe — the Kremlin has a riposte. If the occupant of the Oval Office has no faith in the CIA, the National Security Agency or the Federal Bureau of Investigation, why should anyone else believe them? Mr Trump broke all the rules of politics to win the White House, but a president at war with those charged with keeping America safe?

普京在特朗普进入白宫之前已取得了一场重大胜利。当美国情报机构下一次警示安全威胁——比如俄罗斯又一次侵入乌克兰，或者说东欧的民选政府被颠覆——克里姆林宫就可以巧妙应对了。如果白宫椭圆形办公室(Oval Office)的主人都不相信对中央情报局(CIA)、国家安全局(NSA)或联邦调查局(FBI)，其他人为什么要相信？特朗普打破了所有政治规则，得以入主白宫，但这位总统要与那些肩负保卫美国安全的机构开战？

Intelligence agencies do not always get it right. The CIA will pay the price for its flawed judgments on Saddam Hussein’s weapons programmes for years to come. But the spooks could scarcely have been more confident in saying that the Kremlin hacked into Democratic party computers during the presidential election campaign.

情报机构并不总是正确的。未来几年，中情局将为他们对于对萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)武器计划的错误判断付出代价。但是，谍报人员再确信不过，克里姆林宫在美国总统竞选期间对民主党计算机进行了黑客入侵。

Leading Republicans in Congress have taken the agencies at their word. Rex Tillerson, Mr Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, says it is a “fair assumption” that such cyber attacks could only have taken place with the authorisation of Mr Putin.

国会中的重要共和党议员已相信了这些情报机构的话。被特朗普提名出任国务卿的雷克斯?蒂尔森(Rex Tillerson)表示，此类网络攻击只有得到普京授权才会发生，这是一个“合理假设”。

Mr Trump prefers to shoot the messenger: this week’s leak of allegations that Moscow had gathered personally compromising material was proof of the witch-hunt against him by America’s own agencies. When Mr Trump asks rhetorically whether he is living in Nazi Germany, the adjective that comes most readily to mind is “unhinged”.

特朗普喜欢指责带来坏消息的人：在他看来，有关莫斯科方面收集到他个人污点材料的指控上周遭到泄露，证明了美国本国机构对他的政治迫害。当特朗普言辞激烈地问他是否生活在纳粹德国时，最容易让人想到的形容词是“精神错乱”。

No one watching the president-elect’s rambling, petulant press conference on Wednesday could claim to know where this leaves his proposed reset of US relations with Russia. He still insists he wants to get on with Mr Putin. But then adds that maybe they will fall out. Yes, the Kremlin was probably responsible for the hacking of the Democratic National Committee, but the leaks from US intelligence agencies were the really disgraceful thing. A good relationship with Moscow would help in the fight against Isis. But no, he will not roll back President Barack Obama’s latest sanctions against Russia.

看了这位当选总统上周三那场胡言乱语、乱发脾气的新闻发布会之后，谁也不能声称自己知道特朗普重新调整美俄关系的提议会走向何方。他仍坚称，他想与普京接触。但他随后接着说，也许他们会闹翻。没错，克里姆林宫可能要对民主党全国委员会(DNC)遭黑客攻击负责，但美国情报机构的材料泄露才是真正丢脸的事情。与莫斯科方面修好将有助于打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)。但是，他不会撤销总统巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)对俄罗斯的最新制裁。

There would be little to quarrel with in a show of White House “respect” for the Russian president to reduce tension. Mr Putin craves recognition as a leader with a place at the top table of global affairs. He shares Mr Trump’s desperately thin skin. They are brothers in narcissism. If some Trumpian backslapping succeeds in salving Mr Putin’s wounded pride, all well and good.

美国白宫为了缓解紧张而对这位俄罗斯总统表示“尊重”，这一点无可争议。普京渴望被承认为在全球事务顶级谈判桌上拥有一席之地的领袖。他像特朗普一样极度敏感。他们是一对自恋的兄弟。如果特朗普的某些示好成功地挽救了普京那受伤的自尊，那也不错。

The world is a safer place when the US and Russia find a way to manage their differences. They did so with some effect at the height of the cold war. Neither side has benefited from the renewed military build-up in eastern Europe and the Baltics. There are too many nukes around. The risks of accidental confrontation are not negligible.

当美俄找到管理彼此分歧的方法时，世界会变得更安全。在冷战最严重时，它们就做到了，并且有些效果。双方都没有受益于东欧和波罗的海地区新的军事集结。周围有太多的核武器。意外对抗的风险不可忽视。

The danger arises when engagement becomes a synonym for submission, when necessary deterrence is mistaken for provocation and when “talking” to Moscow turns into a brand of geopolitical realism that says it is always for the west to give ground.

当接触成为屈服的同义词时，当必要威慑被误认为是挑衅时，当“对话”莫斯科成为一种认为总是该由西方让步的地缘政治现实主义时，危险就出现了。

As vague as Mr Trump is about what he wants from the Kremlin, Mr Putin’s goals are crystal clear. They start with western acquiescence in Russian revanchism in Ukraine and in the merciless bombing of civilians to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. They continue with the lifting of economic sanctions against Moscow, and end with eventual US disengagement from Europe and the establishment of a Russian sphere of influence in the territories of the former Soviet Union.

尽管特朗普对于他想从克里姆林宫获得什么语焉不详，普京的目的却无比清楚。首先是让西方默许俄罗斯在乌克兰复仇，以及在叙利亚无情轰炸平民以支持巴沙尔?阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权。接着是解除对莫斯科的经济制裁，最后是美国最终离开欧洲、俄罗斯在前苏联地域上建立势力范围。

When Kremlin officials talk about a new security architecture for Europe what they mean is the end of the US presence. The cold war is over so the Americans should go home. Through this prism, Georgia, Belarus, and Moldova and central Asia as well as Ukraine “belong” to Moscow. For its part, Nato has outlived its purpose and certainly has no place in the former states of the Warsaw Pact.

当克里姆林宫官员谈论一个新的欧洲安全架构时，他们所指的是美国存在的终结。冷战结束了，美国人应该回家去。从他们的角度看，格鲁吉亚、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦和中亚以及乌克兰都“属于”莫斯科。北约(Nato)已失去了存在的意义，前华沙条约(Warsaw Pact)组织成员国当中，当然没有北约的位置。

If these ambitions sound fanciful, Mr Trump’s public disdain for Nato and his temperamental aversion to propping up allies has given Mr Putin an opening. Mr Trump is less interested in preserving the Pax Americana than in striking “deals” with other great powers. Europeans can pay for their own security.

如果这些野心听起来异想天开，那么特朗普公开蔑视北约、情绪激烈地反对给予盟国支持，为普京提供了机会。特朗普对维护“美国治下和平”(Pax Americana)的兴趣低于跟其他大国达成“交易”的兴趣。欧洲人可以为自己的安全买单。

Mr Putin’s world is Mr Trump’s world, one where narrow national interests are substituted for international rules and norms, and weaker nations submit to the will of the powerful. The balance of power, Europeans used to call it.

普京的世界就是特朗普的世界，在这个世界中，狭隘的国家利益取代了国际规则和规范，弱国屈从强国的意志。这是欧洲人曾经称呼的“力量均衡”。

There are checks on Mr Trump. The hacking scandal puts a cloud over his motives and judgment. And if Mr Tillerson’s Senate confirmation hearing told a story it was that Mr Trump’s own party has a rather different view of Mr Putin. But the Kremlin will not be content with its early success. And who knows what Mr Trump will do once he is in the White House? Dangerous times seems something of an understatement.

特朗普面临着一些制约。黑客丑闻给他的动机和判断蒙上了一层阴云。如果确认蒂尔森国务卿任命的参议院听证会说明了一个问题，那就是特朗普本人所在的政党对普京有着截然不同的看法。但克里姆林宫不会满足于其之前取得的成功。一旦特朗普进驻白宫，谁知道他会做些什么？称那时为危险时刻，似乎都有些轻描淡写了。