中概股迴歸表明中國不差錢?大綱

When a group of investors including Sequoia Capital’s China unit and company management took US-listed Qihoo 360 Technology, a Chinese internet company, private in December, they were surprised how easy it was to do so at the desired valuation of $9.3bn.

去年12月，在美國上市的中國互聯網公司奇虎360科技有限公司(Qihoo 360 Technology)被一組投資者私有化，這些投資者包括紅杉資本中國(Sequoia China)和奇虎360的管理層，他們意外發現，以令他們滿意的93億美元估值完成私有化是多麼的容易。

Since then, there have been at least half a dozen more such transactions, the latest being Jumei, an online cosmetics company. Even as the bears warn darkly that China is running out of money, Chinese outbound acquisitions set ever bigger records and capital outflows amount to a possible $800bn a year. There is still plenty of liquidity in China, as such take-private deals suggest. Moreover, these transactions come at a time when the Chinese financial markets are seemingly locked in a tug-of-war between regulators determined to support the prices of listed companies (however artificial) and the naysayers, who believe there is far worse to come.

自那以來至少又發生了6起此類交易，最新的是在線化妝品零售企業聚美優品(Jumei)。即便在悲觀人士陰沉地警告中國資金即將枯竭之際，中國對外收購仍不斷打破紀錄，每年的資本流出可能達到8000億美元。正如此類私有化交易表明的那樣，中國仍有大量的流動性。此外，這些交易發生之際，中國金融市場似乎陷入一場角力，一方面是監管機構決心支撐上市公司股價（無論此舉多麼人爲），另一方面是唱衰者認爲還會出現更糟糕的情況。

Given the fact that the main attraction of such take-private transactions is to eventually relist in China at a much higher valuation, such deals suggest many local investors still have faith in their home market despite the volatility. While the valuation gap has come down, it is still attractive. And for hedge fund managers sitting in Hong Kong who have a much more nuanced view of China than their counterparts in the US, playing such proposed buyouts and outbound investment can be exceptionally lucrative. Generally, the risk that a deal falls through has been slight. There have been dozens of such offers since 2010 and only about 10 per cent have not gone through.

鑑於此類私有化交易對投資者的主要吸引力在於最終在中國以高得多的估值重新上市，這些交易表明，儘管中國市場動盪，但許多國內投資者仍對國內市場抱有信心。雖然估值差距縮小，但此類交易仍具吸引力。與美國對衝基金相比，香港對衝基金對中國的觀察更爲細微，對它們而言，參與此類擬議收購和對外投資可以獲得異常豐厚的利潤。通常而言，交易失敗的風險很低。自2010年以來發生了數十起此類交易，但大約只有10%沒有成功。

Senrigan Capital, a Hong Kong hedge fund with backing from Blackstone, for example, was up more than 18 per cent after fees in 2015, a performance most of its peers might well envy, in part by taking views on the privatisation trend.

例如，獲得黑石(Blackstone)支持的香港對衝基金Senrigan Capital在2015年不包括手續費在內的回報率超過18%，這一業績很可能讓大多數同行羨慕不已，而它部分得益於該基金觀察到私有化趨勢。

For example, when HomeInns, China’s second-largest US listed hotel group, announced a proposal from a group of existing large shareholders including Sequoia’s Neil Shen (a founder), and best of all state-owned Beijing Tourism Group (thus ensuring government support), Senrigan examined its merits closely and decided the proposed take-private deal was attractive for many reasons, according to its year-end letter to investors.

例如，當在美上市的中國第二大酒店集團如家(Homeinns)宣佈收到一組現有大股東的私有化要約的時候，Senrigan在年末致投資者的信中表示，Senrigan仔細研究了這一交易的優點，認定該私有化交易從許多方面來說具有吸引力。上述如家大股東包括紅杉資本中國創始人之一沈南鵬(Neil Shen)和攜程()，最妙的是還有國有企業北京首旅集團(Beijing Tourism Group)（從而確保政府支持）。

For one thing, the valuation was reasonable, which meant of course that the probability of an increase in the offer price was greater. Moreover, because Beijing Tourism already had an A share listed company which pledged to buy the hotel group, the uncertainty of a future mainland listing was greatly reduced. Senrigan’s calculations were confirmed when the offer price was increased almost 10 per cent in December.

該交易的一大優點是，估值合理，這顯然意味着報價有可能提高。此外，由於北京首旅已經有一家A股上市公司承諾收購這家酒店集團，未來內地上市的不確定性大幅下降。去年12月，該交易報價提高近10%，Senrigan的預測得到了證實。

Such deals have been funded by both the debt and equity money that continues to slosh around China. Chinese banks have been eager to finance take-private transactions, a sign that it is government policy to welcome its strays home, as well as companies’ plans to venture offshore. Now, asset managers are also offering wealth management products that give wealthy individual investors the opportunity to invest in take-private transactions. Indeed, in the case of Qihoo, much of the equity was syndicated out to dozens of investors through firms such as New York-listed Noah Wealth Management.

此類交易的資金來源是不斷在中國四處尋覓機會的債務和權益資金。中資銀行一直渴望爲私有化交易提供融資，這表明政府政策歡迎中概股迴歸，同時也表明企業在籌劃投資海外。現在，資產管理公司也提供讓富裕的個人投資者有機會投資於私有化交易的理財產品。實際上，就奇虎而言，大量股權是通過在紐約上市的諾亞財富(Noah Wealth Management)等公司打包出售給數十位投資者的。

While outbound investments may, or may not, be equally illustrative of faith in a future with Chinese characteristics, such offers also represent opportunity for foreign investors. Not long ago, the probability of a Chinese offer for a listed company in the US successfully closing was considered slight, in part because of their relative lack of sophistication, in part because of US regulations and concerns over local financing. Today, they are making progress, which means merger arbitrage funds are beginning to be optimistic about the ability of mainland bidders to successfully close in on their targets.

儘管對外投資既可能說明、也可能無法說明投資者對中國特色未來的信心，但中國的對外收購也代表着外國投資者的機遇。不久前，人們還認爲中資公司收購美國上市公司取得成功的可能性很低，部分原因是它們相對稚嫩，還有部分原因在於美國的監管以及本地融資方面的擔憂。如今，中資公司取得了進步，這意味着併購套利基金開始看好中國內地收購方成功收購目標企業的能力。

China’s buying binge, whether in bringing companies back home or buying foreign companies, may seem questionable. After all, in the former case, higher valuations in China were partly a reflection of the scarcity of alternative investment opportunities and capital controls which prevented diversification offshore. And in the latter, can the Chinese actually manage their new foreign acquisitions — or even oversee them?

中國的收購盛宴（無論是讓中概股迴歸還是收購外國公司）或許看起來值得懷疑。畢竟，就中概股迴歸而言，中國的較高估值部分反映出其他投資機遇的缺乏以及資本管制對海外多元化的阻礙。而就收購外國公司而言，中國人真的能夠管理他們新收購的外國企業、或者哪怕只是從旁監督它們的管理嗎？

Yet for both buyers and investors surely it is better to invest in these sorts of transaction than in government securities around the world which pay almost nothing or less than nothing.

然而，對收購者和投資者來說，投資於這類交易當然比投資於全世界的政府證券要好，後者幾乎沒有什麼回報，甚至還可能虧損。