賭場與對衝基金 平安保險平安嗎

Insurers could be considered a cross between a casino and a hedge fund. Retained premiums are the casino’s win ratio; investment returns on the premium capital are the hedge fund. Sometimes the casino wins, sometimes it loses – both with the bets it places on risks and with the returns it makes on its assets.

保險公司可被認爲兼具賭場與對衝基金的特點。自留保費(retained premiums)就相當於賭場的勝率；而通過保費獲取投資回報有點像對衝基金的做法。賭場有時會贏，有時會輸——由其風險押注和資產回報的綜合結果而定。

Chinese insurer Ping An’s third-quarter results this week could be seen as a solid win. Diluted earnings per share rose four-fifths year on year; in the first nine months Ping An delivered 90 per cent of analysts’ earnings estimates for the full year.

中國平安保險(Ping An Insurance)本週發佈的第三季度業績可謂相當堅挺。該公司稀釋後每股盈利(diluted EPS)同比增長五分之四，今年頭9個月的盈利已相當於分析師所預期的全年盈利的90%。

If anything, Ping An is growing a little too quickly for comfort. Its premiums have grown 16 per cent this year. By contrast, premiums at China’s largest life insurer, China Life , are down 2 per cent year to date. Those at property and casualty leader PICC have grown only 14 per cent. Either Ping An knows something its rivals do not, or it is mispricing risk.

要說有什麼東西令人不安的話，那就是平安發展得有點太快了。該公司今年保費收入增長了16%。相比之下，中國最大的壽險公司——中國人壽(China Life)今年迄今的保費收入下降了2%。財險和意外險領域的領軍者中國人保(PICC)的保費收入僅增長14%。要麼就是平安知道了競爭對手所不知道的事情，要麼就是它對風險作出了錯誤的定價。

The one-third growth in Ping An’s wealth management assets since last December is similarly concerning. China’s insurance market is highly controlled. The regulator is haunted by the guaranteed returns of the 1990s which drove many insurers out of business. Wealth management, introduced in 2009 and relatively less constrained, is an attractive alternative for insurers and customers. But there are risks, especially if the insurers offer guaranteed yields of, say 4 to 5 per cent. That works if the manager can achieve returns higher than that. But should that return lapse, the wealth manager could end up out of pocket.

平安的理財資產自去年12月以來增長了三分之一，這同樣令人不安。中國保險市場受到嚴格管控。上世紀90年代許多保險公司向客戶許諾回報，導致最終破產，讓監管機構還心有餘悸。2009年起保險公司可以開展理財業務，受限制相對較少，對保險公司和客戶來說都是一個有吸引力的替代選擇。但這裏面有風險，尤其是保險公司保證收益率，比如說是4%至5%的話。如果理財業務能夠實現比這還高的回報，那麼沒有問題。但如果回報低迷，理財業務就會賠錢。

China’s life market has immense potential. According to a Swiss Re study in 2011, China had a cover shortfall of $19tn in 2010. Annual new premiums in the life and health sector are only 2 per cent of GDP, says Bernstein; in Hong Kong the figure is 11 per cent. So Chinese insurers should be able to grow. But even in growing markets, the house does not always win.

中國壽險市場擁有巨大的潛力。根據瑞士再保險(Swiss Re) 2011年的一份研究報告，2010年中國壽險缺口達到19萬億美元。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)表示，中國壽險健康險每年新增保費收入僅相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的2%，而香港的這一比例是11%。因此，中國的保險公司應該能夠發展壯大。但即便是在不斷髮展壯大的市場裏，賭場也不會總贏。