回看中國股市的黑色三日

Chinese stocks capped their worst three-day run in nearly two years yesterday, prompting worries that the world-beating rally that began late last year is poised for a reversal.

中國股市昨日創下近兩年來最差的三日表現，令人擔憂這場始於去年下半年、在全球表現最佳的上漲行情將發生逆轉。

Since hitting a seven-year high on April 28, the Shanghai Composite index has lost 9 per cent, Most of it in the past three days. The index is still up 70 per cent since November.

自4月28日創下7年高點以來，上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)已跌去9%，大部分跌幅發生在過去三天。該指數較去年11月仍高出70%。

Several news items have spooked the market but analysts said profit-taking was the main factor, fuelled by a sense that a correction is due.

有幾條新聞嚇壞了市場，但分析師們表示，獲利回吐是主要因素，而回調將至的心態起到了助推作用。

“The fundamentals have not changed significantly,” said Zhu Zhenxin, equity analyst at Minsheng Securities in Shanghai. “In the long term it’s still a bull market.

“基本面並未發生重大變化，”民生證券(Minsheng Securities)駐上海股票分析師朱振鑫表示，“長期來看，A股牛市趨勢不變。”

“But this correction isn’t over yet. We expect the market will recover later this month, as expectations for another interest-rate cut start to strengthen.”

“但這次調整還沒有結束。我們預計，隨着市場對下一次降息的預期開始加強，本月晚些時候股市行情將會轉好。”

Other analysts see a more fundamental shift under way. Morgan Stanley downgraded the MSCI China index yesterday from “overweight” to “equal weight”, its first downgrade in more than seven years.

其他分析師認爲，更爲根本的改變已經開始。昨日，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)將MSCI中國指數(MSCI China Index)的評級從“增持”下調至“持股觀望”，這是7年多來的第一次調降。

Unlike the Shanghai Composite, MSCI China covers equities that are fully accessible to global investors, with Hong Kong shares as the main portion. The index has risen 44 per cent since November but since April 28 is down 7 per cent.

跟上證綜指不同，MSCI中國指數納入的是那些全球投資者可完全自由買賣的中國股票，主要是在香港上市的中國公司。該指數自去年11月以來上漲44%，但自4月28日以來下跌了7%。

“Dramatic recent outperformance has led to a deterioration in absolute and relative valuations and a technically overbought situation,” said Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s head of strategy for Asia and emerging markets. “We are known in the market for being bullish China — some might say perma bulls — so for us this is a big call.”

“近期超強行情導致了絕對和相對估值惡化，還有一種技術性超買局面，”摩根士丹利的亞洲及新興市場股票策略主管喬納森•加納(Jonathan Garner)表示，“我們在市場上以看好中國聞名——有人可能稱我們爲永久看漲者——所以這對我們是一個重大判斷。”

In 1993 a Morgan Stanley strategist, Barton Biggs, sparked a rally in Hong Kong when he declared himself “tuned in, overfed and maximum bullish” on China.

1993年，摩根士丹利策略師巴頓•比格斯(Barton Biggs)宣稱他自己對中國“感興趣，配置過高，極度看好”，結果引發了香港股市上漲。

Beyond valuations, other concerns are putting pressure on the market. Many Chinese securities brokerages have tightened margin lending requirements, requiring bigger haircuts on the face value of securities pledged for margin loans.

除估值之外，其他擔憂也令市場承受壓力。許多中國券商收緊了融資條件，要求在計算爲獲得保證金貸款而質押的證券的面值時，計入更大幅度的折讓。

The securities regulator has repeatedly warned that brokers should control risk from margin lending, which has exploded.

證券監管機構多次警告稱，券商應當控制保證金貸款的風險。此類貸款已出現爆炸性增長。

Credit Suisse estimates that in addition to the Rmb1.7tn in officially disclosed margin lending by brokers, Rmb1.4tn to Rmb1.7tn of loans have flowed into the stock market through other channels.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)估計，除官方披露的由券商提供的1.7萬億元人民幣保證金貸款之外，通過其他渠道流進股市的此類貸款達到1.4萬億至1.7萬億元人民幣。

These include “umbrella trusts”, in which trust companies sell wealth management products and channel the proceeds into loans to hedge funds. Big shareholders in listed companies have raised funds to play the market by pledging their shares.

這些渠道包括“傘形信託”，即信託公司出售理財產品，然後將所得以貸款形式提供給對衝基金。上市公司的大股東通過質押自己所持股票來獲得炒股資金。

Vincent Chan, analyst of China equity at Credit Suisse, warned yesterday that mainland-traded “A shares” were poised for a fall, though he remained positive on Hong Kong-traded “H shares”, which are less richly valued.

瑞信中國股票分析師陳昌華(Vincent Chan)昨日警告稱，內地“A股”註定會下跌，儘管他仍看好估值不那麼高的香港“H股”。

“We think it is time for the A-share market to have some correction,” he said.

“我們認爲，現在到了A股市場進行一定調整的時候了，”他說。