沃爾瑪在華經營模式面臨挑戰

Foreign big-box retailers have found the going extremely tough in China. Having flooded in over the past two decades seeking to tap into rising demand from China’s emerging middle class, many big names, from Best Buy to Tesco, have subsequently been forced to admit defeat, faced with fierce local competition and a rapidly changing retail landscape.

國際大型零售商發現，自己在中國的經營陷入了極其艱難的境地。它們在過去20年間涌入中國、試圖充分挖掘中國新興中產階級日益擴大的需求，但面對來自中國本土零售商的激烈競爭以及快速變化的零售業格局，從百思買(Best Buy)到樂購(Tesco)等諸多零售業巨頭後來不得不承認失敗。

US retail giant Walmart appears to be bucking this trend. Despite slowing sales — Walmart’s same-store sales have declined on an annual basis in each of the past four quarters for which it has announced results, most recently a 2.3 per cent year-on-year decline in the three months to January — the world’s largest retailer by sales remains committed to expanding its China footprint. Moreover, while both local and multinational rivals are diversifying their store formats, Walmart remains committed to big-box hypermarkets.

美國零售巨頭沃爾瑪(Walmart)卻似乎在逆勢而進。雖然銷售放緩——根據其公佈的財報，沃爾瑪同店銷售額在過去四個季度中的每一個季度都出現同比下降，在截至今年1月的最近的這個季度裏同比下降了2.3%——但這家銷售額排名全球第一的零售商仍致力於在華擴張。此外，雖然中國本土和跨國競爭對手都在使自己的門店形式變得更加多樣，但沃爾瑪仍固守大賣場模式。

On the surface, data from China Confidential, a research service from the Financial Times, suggest this continued commitment to China may pay off. Walmart has remained the most-visited supermarket brand among shoppers surveyed by China Confidential over the past three years, even as multinational rivals such as Carrefour and Tesco have seen their popularity dwindle.

英國《金融時報》旗下調研機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)的數據顯示，表面上看，這種對中國的持續投入可能會收到成效。《中國投資參考》過去三年對購物者的調查發現，沃爾瑪仍是購物者光顧最多的超市品牌，儘管家樂福(Carrefour)、樂購等跨國同行在華人氣呈現下降。

More than 30 per cent of supermarket shoppers continue to shop regularly at Walmart’s 412 stores in 165 cities nationwide, ahead of Carrefour and local rivals such as Sun Art’s RT-Mart chain. Meanwhile, specialist online grocery retailer Yihaodian, in which Walmartowns a majority stake, has also enjoyed success, especially among consumers in China’s largest cities. Twelve per cent of shoppers in first-tier cities said they regularly made grocery purchases on Yihaodian.

逾30%的超市購物者仍定期到沃爾瑪在全中國165個城市的412家門店購物，這一比例領先於家樂福以及中國本土競爭對手，比如高鑫零售(Sun Art)旗下的大潤發(RT-Mart)連鎖超市。與此同時，沃爾瑪持有多數股權、專營日用品的在線零售商“1號店”也取得了成功，尤其受到中國大城市消費者的歡迎。中國一線城市12%的購物者表示，他們定期在1號店購買日用品。

However, this headline success masks significant shifts in consumer preference which may undermine Walmart’s popularity in the future. Rival retailers continue to gain ground, tapping into the rising premium placed on convenience by increasingly time-poor consumers, as well as growing health consciousness. Domestic and Japanese convenience store brands already have a large presence in major cities and are expanding rapidly into lower-tier cities. Some 78 per cent of consumers surveyed by China Confidential at the end of last year said they regularly shopped at convenience stores, rising to 88 per cent among shoppers in first-tier cities. Although previous forays into this sector from big-box retailers such as Tesco have ended in failure, Walmart’s lack of presence in this market is a potential concern given slowing industry-wide hypermarket and supermarket revenue growth, a trend likely to continue in 2015.

但在這種看得見的成功的背後，是消費者偏好的重大改變，這種改變可能會削弱沃爾瑪未來的受歡迎程度。由於消費者空閒時間越來越少，因此他們越來越注重購物的便利性，另外他們的健康意識也在日益增強，沃爾瑪的競爭對手充分利用這兩點、不斷攻城略地。中國本土以及日本的便利店品牌已在中國大城市佔據很大的地盤，同時也在中小城市迅速擴張。《中國投資參考》去年底調查的消費者中，約78%的受訪者稱，他們定期到便利店購物，而在一線城市中這一比例高達88%。儘管樂購等大型零售商此前進軍這一領域以失敗告終，但沃爾瑪在這塊市場沒有佈局是一大隱患，尤其是考慮到大賣場和超市收入增長放緩這一全行業性的趨勢很可能會在2015年延續。

Furthermore, Walmart’s positioning appears less clear than some of its faster-growing rivals. Domestic brand Yonghui Superstores, for example, has enjoyed double-digit revenue and profit growth in recent years by focusing on fresh, local produce, with at least 60 per cent of its meat and vegetables directly sourced from local farms. Having initially focused on regional markets such as Fujian and Chongqing, it is now looking to expand into larger markets, with plans to have 100 stores in Shanghai by 2017, where 80 per cent of floorspace will be dedicated to fresh vegetables, meat and fish. This strategy is already bearing fruit: 8.2 per cent of consumers said they regularly shopped at Yonghui at the end of 2014, up from 5.7 per cent at the end of 2013.

此外，沃爾瑪的定位比起一些增長更快的競爭對手似乎也不夠清晰。例如，中國本土品牌永輝超市(Yonghui Superstores)專營本地產新鮮農產品（其出售的肉類和蔬菜至少有60%直接採購自所在地農場），近年來取得了兩位數的收入和利潤增長。最初只聚焦於福建、重慶等地方市場的永輝超市，現在正考慮進軍更大的市場，計劃到2017年時在上海開設100家門店，其中80%的店面將專門用於供應新鮮蔬菜、肉類和魚。這一戰略已開始收到效果：2014年底，8.2%的消費者稱，他們定期到永輝購物，較2013年底的5.7%有所上升。

All of which is not to say that Walmart’s expansion-driven strategy in China is doomed to failure. Despite being embroiled in several high-profile bad news stories in recent years, it retains a strong brand, while its large presence gives it strong bargaining power and economies of scale, although it has less of an advantage in lower-tier markets where local rivals already have well-established relationships. But its big-box approach appears increasingly old-fashioned in a rapidly changing and diversifying market.

這一切並不意味着，沃爾瑪由擴張驅動的在華戰略註定會失敗。雖然近年來捲入了幾起備受關注的醜聞，但沃爾瑪品牌仍具有強大的吸引力，門店數量衆多給它帶來了強大的議價能力和規模效益，儘管它在中國本土競爭對手已建立完善關係的中小市場並不佔什麼優勢。不過，在快速變化和日益多元化的市場中，沃爾瑪的大賣場模式似乎顯得越來越跟不上時代。