別對中國股市下跌幸災樂禍

The spectacle of Chinese shares in freefall last week gave rise to a sense of schadenfreude aMong many western observers who remember complacent Chinese statements about the superiority its financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis.

上週中國股市直線下跌的景象讓許多西方觀察者感到幸災樂禍，他們還記得，就在全球金融危機爆發後不久，中國曾沾沾自喜地談到自己的金融體系擁有優越性。

Such satisfaction is understandable. Rarely have regulators and government officials appeared as desperate and out of control as in recent days, with their efforts to slow a bull market becoming a frenzied multi-pronged effort to arrest a plunge they had failed to anticipate.

他們的滿足感是可以理解的。監管機構和政府官員的表現很少像近幾日這樣絕望和失控——原本是想要讓牛市放慢腳步，沒想到造成了一場暴跌，於是又瘋狂地多管齊下託市。

Among the many reasons for falling share prices was the role of shadow banks in providing leverage to investors who were happy to borrow money and bet on ever rising share prices. And while few outside observers made the connection between the shadow banks and this particular source of vulnerability, hadn’t the pundits warned all along that the shadow banks would ultimately come to haunt Beijing?

在股價下跌的衆多原因之中，有一個是影子銀行的作用。部分投資者想要借錢炒股，押注於股價的不斷上升，影子銀行向他們提供了槓桿。儘管沒幾個外部觀察人士將影子銀行和這一具體的脆弱性來源聯繫到一起，但專家們不是一直警告稱北京方面最終會被影子銀行反噬？

One big bank chief executive has referred to “China’s Roadrunner moment” — when, like Wile E Coyote, the cartoon bird’s ill-fated pursuer, the economy realises that, having run off the edge of a cliff, the ground no longer supports it, and it falls. But this is not a Roadrunner moment just for China.

一家大銀行的首席執行官稱這次股市暴跌爲“中國的BB鳥(Roadrunner)時刻” （意思是就像那部卡通片裏追趕BB鳥的倒黴的歪心狼(Coyote)一樣，中國在衝出懸崖之後，才發現腳底踩空，自己已開始向下墜落，然而爲時已晚），但這個“BB鳥時刻”並不只是中國的。

In a world where linkages between financial markets are ever closer, and any big lurch quickly travels, the ripple effects of the drop in Chinese shares will probably have lasting consequences across a range of markets, including credit, currencies, commodities and Treasuries, and will influence the fortunes of foreign companies in China.

在各個金融市場聯繫日益緊密、一個市場打個踉蹌就會迅速傳導到其他市場的當今世界，中國股市下跌的漣漪效應很可能會對外匯、大宗商品、信貸和國債等一系列市場造成持久影響，而且還會影響到在華外企的命運。

Moreover China’s economy was already slowing, albeit off a much larger base than in the past. That means China will create less foreign exchange reserves, and fewer dollars to circulate back to the rest of the world.

此外，中國股市下滑之際，中國經濟已然在放緩，雖然它現在的基數比過去大得多。這意味着中國的外匯儲備增速會變慢，產生的重新流向其他國家的美元也會減少。

At the same time the government has to spend more money nurturing the domestic economy and making sure stock market chaos does not lead to riots in the streets, as it has in the past. The combination of a slowing economy and more claims on existing reserves to fill holes in balance sheets may reduce official flows to such external destinations as the US Treasury market.

與此同時，中國政府必須投入更多資金扶植國內經濟，並確保股市的混亂不會像過去那樣引發街頭騷亂。經濟放緩，加上需動用更多現有儲備填補國內企業和個人的資產負債表窟窿，可能意味着流向美國國債市場等外部目的地的官方儲備資金會減少。

The drop in share prices is especially bad news for the numerous companies that hoped to reduce their debts, either by issuing shares or by making windfall profits through canny investments in the market — often, alas, with borrowed money. Now their debts are even bigger, and if they borrowed in dollars and have few dollar revenues, their creditors in the Asian dollar bond market have good reason for concern.

股價下跌對於大量希望減少自身債務的公司尤其是壞消息，不論它們是希望通過發行股票，還是通過在股市投機發一筆橫財——唉，通常都是用借來的錢——來實現這一目的。現在，它們的債務變得更加龐大，如果它們借的是美元而又沒有多少美元收入，它們在亞洲美元債券市場的債權人就有充分理由要擔憂了。

In addition Chinese demand — which fed the coffers of everyone from iron ore miners in Australia to carmakers headquartered in the US — was softening even before the setback. Iron ore prices have fallen 20 per cent in the past week alone, largely on downward revisions of demand from the mainland. The latest data (which do not reflect the turbulence of the past 10 days) show Chinese retail sales weakening, while demand for cars (9 per cent of that) declined sharply, “taking away the final growth engine”, says Credit Suisse. In recent months officials fretted openly that the currency was too strong, as the renminbi rose in tandem with the dollar and capital outflows, a feature of much of last year, dwindled.

此外，使衆多企業（從澳大利亞鐵礦石生產商到總部位於美國的汽車製造商）腰包變鼓的中國需求甚至在此番暴跌之前就開始疲軟了。僅過去一週，鐵礦石價格就下跌了20%，主要原因在於中國內地鐵礦石需求量下調。瑞信(Credit Suisse)表示，（不含過去10天的）最新數據顯示，中國零售總額增長疲軟，而（佔零售總額9%的）汽車的需求大幅下降，“最後這個增長引擎也沒有了”。最近幾個月，人民幣隨着美元一起升值，資本外流（去年大多數時間的主要特徵）減少，官員們公開抱怨稱，人民幣走勢過強。

Export prospects also appeared shakier in the face of a cheaper yen and cheaper euro. Now, though, after a 30 per cent fall in the stock market, and interest rate and reserve ratio cuts to support share prices in response, the renminbi is under downward pressure instead.

面對貶值的日元和歐元，中國出口前景也似乎也不穩定。不過，在股市下跌30%，政府降低利率和存款準備金率來支撐股價之後，人民幣正面臨下行壓力。

In a world where trade is almost flat, any fall in the value of the renminbi is likely to put further pressure on countries in both East Asia and Southeast Asia that already face slowing growth and large drops in monthly exports. By the end of last week regulators were excoriating short sellers and foreign funds, and grilling foreign brokers on their futures activities.

在一個貿易幾乎沒有增長的世界，人民幣任何幅度的貶值，都可能給已然面臨經濟增長放緩和月出口大幅下滑的東亞及東南亞國家造成進一步壓力。截至上週末，監管機構一直在指責賣空者和外國基金，並嚴查外國券商的期貨行爲。

To turn the tumultuous stock market ride into something simple misses the point — as do the naysayers. Its consequences are likely to be painful both on the mainland and beyond its borders for a while to come.

將股市的大起大落歸結於某種簡單的東西並未抓住要害——唱反調的人亦是如此。股市大起大落的後果很可能在未來一段時期對國內和國外都造成痛苦。