美國不加息對新興市場影響不同 Emerging markets and the Fed
There are three kinds of policymakers at the Federal Reserve, goes the chatter in the markets: hawks, doves and chickens. It was the third type of bird that was setting policy last week, when the US central bank decided to hold interest rates at their historic low. And while market pricing — as opposed to surveys of economists — had largely anticipated the decision, the Fed still surprised in the extent of its caution, citing China, global financial uncertainties and overly low domestic inflation as reasons to stand still.
市場總是在說，美聯儲(Fed)有3種政策制定者：鷹派、鴿派和小雞派。上週制定政策的顯然是小雞派，因爲美聯儲決定將利率維持在歷史最低位。儘管市場定價（而不是對經濟學家的調查）此前基本上預計到了該決定，但美聯儲的謹慎程度仍令人感到意外，這家美國央行把中國、全球金融不確定性和國內通脹過低等多項因素列爲暫緩加息的理由。
Its lack of action will have the biggest impact on other developed country central banks that are also at the zero lower bound of Monetary policy. With the euro once again gaining ground against the dollar, the European Central Bank could signal as soon as October that it will expand its quantitative easing programme — perhaps first by extending its end date beyond September 2016 and then by increasing monthly purchases.
美聯儲按兵不動，對同樣徘徊於零下限貨幣政策的其它發達國家央行的影響最大。隨着歐元兌美元再次上漲，歐洲央行(ECB)可能最早在今年10月暗示，將擴大其量化寬鬆項目——或許首先把結束日期推至2016年9月以後，然後增加月度購買金額。
The odds have also risen that the Bank of Japan will add to its current accommodation, though it is likely to take longer to decide. And surely the Bank of England, which was seen as the bank most likely to “follow the Fed” and raise rates in its wake, will now be able to hold off in the face of decidedly mixed economic data.
日本央行(BoJ)加大當前寬鬆政策力度的可能性也在增加，儘管它可能需要更長時間才能做出決定。而此前被認爲最有可能“跟隨美聯儲”、緊隨其後加息的英國央行(BoE)，現在將能夠在經濟數據明顯好壞參半的情況下按兵不動。
Emerging markets, meanwhile, can be roughly divided into three groups, reckons Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the FT: those where the Fed’s forbearance makes little difference, those where it is helpful and those where it only complicates policy.
至於新興市場，英國《金融時報》旗下的宏觀研究服務機構Medley Global Advisors認爲，可以把它們大致分成3組：美聯儲不加息決定幾乎沒有影響的國家，美聯儲不加息決定有幫助的國家，以及美聯儲不加息決定只是讓政策更爲複雜化的國家。
As we were
一切照舊
China will continue to plough its own furrow. A weaker dollar might reduce the pace of capital outflows from the mainland and the scale of intervention by the People’s Bank of China, but not by much. While expectations of further yuan depreciation remain entrenched, outflows will continue and cuts in interest rates and reserve requirements will come in response to that.
中國將繼續致力於國內事務。美元走弱可能有助於減緩中國的資本外流，減少中國人民銀行(PBoC)的干預規模，但幅度都不會太大。在人民幣進一步貶值預期依然根深蒂固之際，資本外流將會持續，而中國將出臺降息降準舉措作爲應對。
Russia will also continue to cut rates, and as fast as falling domestic inflation allows, in order to support a rapidly shrinking economy. A weaker dollar is helpful but it is the oil price and the pass-through to inflation from previous rouble weakness that are critical.
俄羅斯也將在不斷下降的國內通脹允許的情況下繼續降息，以支持迅速萎縮的經濟。美元疲弱有所幫助，但關鍵是油價以及上一波盧布弱勢對通脹的影響。
Most of central and eastern Europe is also unaffected, but for much happier reasons. Economic growth in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania remains strong or at least decent; inflation remains low; and with rates already at record lows, the region’s central banks can afford to wait for a gradual strengthening of eurozone and, hopefully, global growth.
大多數中東歐國家也不受影響，但原因可喜得多。波蘭、匈牙利、捷克和羅馬尼亞的經濟增長依然強勁（或者至少還算不錯）；通脹依然保持低位；而且利率已經處於創紀錄的低點，該地區的各國央行等得起歐元區乃至全球逐步恢復強勁增長。
With a little help from my friends
吾友之助
Fed forbearance, on the other hand, will come in very handy in some of the most fragile emerging economies. After raising rates faster and further than it ever intended, Brazil’s central bank declared itself to be on hold from late July. But it is already under renewed pressure to act as inflation climbs ever higher and the currency’s collapse to almost R$4 to the US dollar following the country’s downgrade to a junk credit rating. Steady US rates and a weaker greenback may be just enough to help the Bacen avoid inflicting further pain on Brazil’s recessionary economy.
另一方面，美聯儲不加息決定對一些最爲脆弱的新興經濟體非常有用。在加息速度和幅度超出初衷後，巴西央行宣佈從7月下旬起暫停加息。但它已經受到新的採取行動的壓力，因爲通脹越來越高，而且在該國的信用評級被降至垃圾級之後，雷亞爾匯率暴跌至近4雷亞爾兌1美元的水平。美國利率穩定和美元疲弱可能有助於巴西央行避免給衰退的國內經濟帶來更多痛苦。
Similarly, the longer the Fed delays hiking, the better for Turkey. Rates will have to rise at some point given poor inflation data, a weak currency and what looks like continuing political deadlock even after a second election in November. But growth is weak and the longer the central bank can avoid tightening, the more pleased its political masters will be.
同樣，美聯儲越推遲加息，就越有利於土耳其。鑑於通脹數據糟糕、貨幣疲弱以及看起來即便在11月第二次選舉之後政治僵局仍會持續，土耳其將不得不在某一時點加息。但土耳其增長疲弱，該國央行越遲收緊政策，其政治主子就會越高興。
South Africa, another of the original “fragile five” EMs, faces the same constraints. Activity is anaemic, the currency weak and domestic inflation too high — with the risk of further large wage settlements for miners driving it higher. In response, the Reserve Bank started normalising rates in July, but the more it can take its time, the less likely it is to push the economy into recession.
南非是最初的“脆弱五國”(Fragile Five)的一員，該國面臨同樣的制約。經濟活動低迷，貨幣疲弱以及國內通脹過高——礦工們爭取到的進一步大幅加薪協議還可能進一步推高通脹。作爲迴應，南非央行在今年7月走上利率正常化道路，但它越能放慢腳步，經濟陷入衰退的機率就越小。
Mexico, while in a much stronger position, also has reason to thank the Fed. Because of its proximity to the US and the deep liquidity of its markets, which makes the peso more volatile than fundamentals justify, it was seen as another country bound to follow the Fed higher. Yet with domestic inflation at barely 2.5 per cent, its lowest level since the 1960s, there is absolutely no reason to do so domestically.
墨西哥的處境儘管要強勁得多，但也有理由感謝美聯儲。由於毗鄰美國，而且市場流動性氾濫（這使比索的波動性超出基本面因素的影響範圍），此前墨西哥被視爲又一個註定追隨美聯儲加息的國家。然而，由於其國內通脹率僅有2.5%，爲上世紀60年代以來的最低水平，墨西哥本身完全沒有理由加息。
Some of Asia’s central banks are probably pleased as well — but for the opposite reason. They had anticipated a Fed hike this year and some, like Bank Indonesia, were indeed calling for their US peers to get on with it. But underneath they were concerned about the impact of further dollar strength on their currencies and what they might be forced to do — in terms of intervention and even monetary policy — to shore them up. From a purely domestic standpoint, by contrast, they would prefer to stimulate spending by households and businesses and to compensate for slow public infrastructure investment. South Korea will very likely cut rates again before year end. And if Fed lift-off is delayed into next year, then Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand may feel free to ease as well.
亞洲一些國家的央行也可能感到高興，但出於相反的理由。它們此前預計美聯儲將在今年加息，的確，印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)等央行曾呼籲美聯儲爽快地按計劃加息。但在根本層面，它們擔心美元進一步升值對本幣的影響，以及它們爲了支持匯率而被迫出臺干預乃至貨幣政策措施。相比之下，從純粹國內的角度來看，它們寧願刺激家庭和企業支出，對公共基礎設施投資放緩做出補償。韓國很有可能在年底前再次降息。如果美聯儲推遲至明年加息，那麼馬來西亞、印尼和泰國也可能有放鬆政策的空間。
Between the Fed and a hard place
被美聯儲和絕壁擠在中間
One of the trickiest upcoming policy meetings will be that of Banrep, Colombia’s central bank, on September 25. Following several unexpectedly high inflation prints, investors are anticipating the start of a hiking cycle. But with Banrep’s board seemingly split between hawks and doves, it has so far held off. MGA was expecting the board to vote 4-to-3 to raise rates by 25bp this week, with governor Jose Uribe switching his vote in favour of the move. Now that the Fed has stayed on the sidelines, however, perhaps Colombia will too.
即將舉行的最爲棘手的政策會議之一將是哥倫比亞央行在9月25日舉行的會議。在通脹接連意外高企之後，投資者預計哥倫比亞將開啓加息週期。但由於該行理事會的鷹派和鴿派似乎勢均力敵，它迄今保持利率不變。Medley Global Advisors本來預計，哥倫比亞央行理事會本週將會以4票對3票的表決結果加息25個基點，行長若澤烏里韋(Jose Uribe)將改變立場，投票支持加息。然而，既然美聯儲按兵不動，或許哥倫比亞央行也會如此。
Its Andean neighbour, Chile, opted to hold rates earlier this month and while its next move will also be an increase, delays in US tightening could prompt the Chileans to postpone the beginning of their cycle as well, especially if the peso now stays on an even keel. Meanwhile, Peru, which already started to hike to counter rapidly rising prices, will probably be forced to continue — but could look a little exposed over the next few months and a strengthening sol could damage exports.
哥倫比亞在安第斯山脈的鄰國智利本月早些時候選擇保持利率不變，儘管它的下一步也將是加息，但美國延遲收緊政策，可能促使智利央行也推遲加息週期，尤其是如果現在智利比索匯率保持平穩的話。與此同時，祕魯已經開始加息以對抗價格的迅速上升，該國很可能被迫繼續加息，但未來幾個月該國面臨的風險看起來有點大，祕魯比索不斷升值可能破壞出口。
If the Fed has only delayed lift-off by a month or three, then the effect on EM monetary policy will not be significant or long-lasting. But there are tactical difficulties to changing policy either at its meetings in October (no scheduled press conference and no new forecasts) and December (year-end liquidity issues). Which is why markets are not fully pricing a rate rise until March 2016. If it stays on hold until then, that really would have implications for its peers, not least by signalling a lack of confidence in the global outlook. By year end, we will know which birds are really in charge.
如果美聯儲推遲加息僅僅1個月或3個月，那麼新興市場貨幣政策所受的影響將不大，也不會持久。但在其10月政策會議（沒有安排記者會，也不會做出新的預測）和12月政策會議上（年底的流動性問題）改變政策存在戰術上的困難。正因如此，從市場價格看，市場預計美聯儲在2016年3月之前不會加息。若果真如此，那就真的會對其他央行產生影響，尤其是因爲這顯示美聯儲對全球前景缺乏信心。到今年底，我們會知道真正執掌美聯儲的是什麼鳥。
