投鼠忌器的中國經濟改革 China's Fitful Economic Reforms

Back in 2004, when I ran the China desk at the International Monetary Fund, my team sent some written questions to Beijing ahead of our meetings with Chinese officials. China’s central bank had claimed that the value of the currency, the renminbi, was determined by market forces. But to the rest of the world, it looked like the currency’s value was tightly managed — so tightly that its value relative to the U.S. dollar did not change. We asked how this was possible if the exchange rate was truly market determined. After all, market exchange rates among major currencies fluctuate a lot.

早在2004年，當我還在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)負責處理中國事務時，我的團隊曾在與中國官員會面之前，向北京方面遞交了一些問題。中國央行此前聲稱，人民幣匯率是由市場機制決定。但在其他國家眼中，人民幣匯率顯然受到嚴格管控，從人民幣對美元匯率保持不變就可見一斑。我們就此詢問北京方面，如果匯率真的是由市場決定，這如何行得通。畢竟，重要貨幣的市場匯率都會上下浮動。

The response from the central bank nicely summed up the Chinese approach to market forces: “The exchange rate is fully determined by market supply and demand. The authorities endeavor to manage both supply and demand in a manner that promotes the stable formation of the exchange rate mechanism.”

央行的回覆完美地詮釋了中國對待市場機制的態度：“匯率完全由市場供求決定。中國政府努力調控供求，以促進匯率機制的穩定形成。”

In other words, the central bank controlled both supply and demand to fix the “market-determined” exchange rate at a constant level.

換言之，央行控制了供求，將“市場化”匯率固定在始終如一的水平上。

On Monday, the I.M.F. elevated the renminbi to the status of a global reserve currency — deeming it available for wide use in trade and finance and suitable for safekeeping of other countries’ foreign-exchange reserves. This was a prize China had long sought, in return for financial market and currency reforms that the I.M.F. had requested. But while the elevation of the renminbi is a validation of China’s recent reform efforts, the government has a long way to go on the path to a market economy.

週一，IMF將人民幣地位提升到國際儲備貨幣，認爲人民幣適用於廣泛的金融貿易，完全可以成爲他國的外匯儲備幣種。這是中國長期以來的追求，是對進行金融市場和貨幣改革的獎勵。這些改革也正是IMF此前的要求。然而，即使人民幣地位的提升，證明中國近期改革卓有成效，其政府要實現市場化經濟，依然有漫長的路要走。

The reality is that for all of the country’s economic liberalization and progress over the past decade the government has still not entirely changed its approach to the free market. China today represents a grand experiment in whether the tension between two contradictory forces — the free market and the government’s proclivity to do whatever it takes to maintain “stability and order” — can be reconciled.

事實上，即使中國在過去十年展開經濟自由化，並獲得各項進展，政府依然沒有完全改變其對待自由市場的方式。自由市場和政府千方百計維持“穩定有序”的願景，是兩股矛盾的力量。能否化解這兩股力量間的矛盾之處，正是今日中國面臨的一場重大實驗。

This experiment has come under pressure in recent months as Chinese economic growth has slowed, and the currency and stock markets have been volatile. But for all the doomsday prophesying rampant in the media, China’s growth is not about to collapse and the stock market meltdown doesn’t presage a financial crisis. Much of the volatility in stock markets and in the currency’s value in recent months reflects, in large part, a well-intentioned but limited and poorly executed reform program.

數月來，中國經濟增速放緩，貨幣匯率和股市動盪不安，這場試驗也面臨着巨大壓力。然而，即使媒體一致唱衰，中國經濟增長並不會崩潰，股票市場的潰敗也不預示着金融危機的到來。近期股市和人民幣匯率的震盪，反映出改革初衷良好，但是範圍有限，執行不佳。

The government is, indeed, moving ahead with financial sector reforms that are essential for China to better manage its economy and allocate its massive pool of savings to more productive investment opportunities. Interest rates on bank deposits and loans are no longer determined by the government. State-owned banks now have to compete with private and foreign banks. The government also recently freed up exchange rates, so that the value of the renminbi can be more subject to market forces.

顯然，中國政府正在推進金融領域的改革，這對更好地治理經濟，對其大量資金進行更加有效的投資都至關重要。如今，銀行存貸款利率都已不再由政府制定；中國的國有銀行必須和私立銀行及外資銀行競爭。近期，政府放鬆了利率管制，因此市場力量會對人民幣匯率發揮更大作用。

But the way such reforms are implemented suggests a deep reluctance to allow markets to have free rein. The devaluation of the renminbi by about 2 percent relative to the dollar in mid-August caught more attention than changes ostensibly allowing the currency’s value to be more freely determined with less intervention by the central bank. The move helped position the renminbi for the I.M.F. benediction on Monday, but the government did not communicate its intentions well at the time, leading to the widespread view that China was simply trying to cheapen its currency to improve the competitiveness of its exports.

但這種改革實施的方式卻顯示出，官方極不情願允許市場自由波動。8月中旬人民幣相對於美元貶值近2%，這一情況受到的關注，遠遠超過了表面看來允許人民幣匯率更自由地被決定，和減少央行干預的政策變動。這爲人民幣本週一得到IMF的接納預先做好了準備，但當時政府沒能很好地闡述其意圖，導致外界廣泛認爲中國這麼做只是在嘗試貶值人民幣，從而提升中國出口行業的競爭力。

The ensuing volatility led the central bank to go right back to intervening in the foreign-exchange market to maintain stability of the exchange rate. Such a one step forward, two steps sideways approach to market liberalization has ironically increased the inevitable risks that arise during the transition to freer markets.

之後的波動導致央行乾脆迴歸過去的做法，通過干預外匯市場來維持匯率的穩定。對於市場自由化，採取這種前進一步、偏離兩步的做法，在向更加自由的市場轉型的過程中，增加了不可避免的風險，頗有諷刺意味。

The renminbi’s newfound status as an official reserve currency will only heighten these tensions. Foreign investors will over time increase their demand for the currency to move more freely in and out of China’s financial markets. Heavy-handed and unpredictable government intervention might make these flows more volatile.

人民幣新近成爲正式的儲備貨幣，只會加劇這些緊張。隨着時間推移，外國投資者會日益要求人民幣能夠更自由地進出中國的金融市場。力度很強且不可預期的政府幹預，可能會讓這些流動更不穩定。

Meanwhile, the government has done little to improve corporate governance of Chinese companies or their accounting and auditing standards. The result has been wild swings in stock prices, as investors have sparse information about the companies that they are investing in.

同時，政府也沒有采取多少措施，改善中國企業的內部管理或會計和審計標準。其結果就是，投資者對於自己投資的企業瞭解極少，進而促使股價瘋狂波動。

Even Chinese investors seem to value the benefits of a free market, but they still count on the government to step in when things turn sour. Responding to these expectations, the government has intervened on and off to prop up stock prices, confusing investors about its true intentions and adding to volatility, which could in turn erode political support for reforms.

就連中國投資者似乎都很珍視自由市場的好處，但他們仍然指望着政府在局勢惡化時介入。爲迴應這樣的期待，政府時不時地會進行干預，以支撐股價，於是投資者對其真實目的感到困惑，因而加劇了波動，這反過來又侵蝕了改革舉措得到的政治支持。

One key to controlling the impulse to intervene is managing expectations. On a visit this summer to Shenzhen, a major port city in Guangdong Province in southern China, I met a large group of entrepreneurs to discuss the state of China’s economy. I asked for a show of hands for those who thought their country would attain this year’s official G.D.P. growth target of 7 percent. About half of the hands went up. I then asked if they agreed with the perception abroad that their government was not managing the economy well. Virtually every hand in the room shot up, followed by a blistering attack on policy makers in Beijing for allowing the stock market to fall sharply and letting the currency become too volatile.

要想控制這種干預的衝動，一個關鍵做法是管理預期。今年夏天，在訪問廣東省的大型港口城市深圳時，我見到了一大羣企業家，與他們探討了中國經濟的現狀。我請那些認爲中國的GDP增長能夠達到官方設定的7%目標的人舉一下手，大約有一半人舉手。之後我問，國外觀點認爲中國政府管理經濟失當，他們當中有多少人認同這種說法。屋裏幾乎所有人都嗖地舉起了手，之後開始激烈地抨擊北京的政策制定者，允許股市急劇下跌、讓人民幣波動加劇。

These reactions highlight the challenges China’s leaders face: They have to get Chinese citizens used to not just the freedom and benefits but also the inherent risks of the marketplace. A tall order in the best of times and harder when economic growth is slowing.

這些反應突顯了中國領導人面臨的挑戰：他們必須讓中國公民不僅習慣自由和收益，也要習慣市場所固有的風險。即使在經濟最好的時候這都很困難，在經濟增長放緩的時候則更難。

The solution is not more government control but steps to improve regulatory frameworks and getting other institutional aspects such as corporate governance and transparency right while freeing up markets.

解決之道並不是加大政府控制，而是採取措施改善監管架構，並在提升市場自由度的同時，讓其他制度層面的東西，如企業治理和透明度走上正軌。

The fundamental question that China’s policy makers face is whether they will back up their commitment to financial sector reforms with broader measures that will truly free up markets and support them with a strong institutional foundation. Otherwise, the inherent contradictions in trying to free up markets while maintaining state control may cause well-intentioned reform efforts to backfire. This will simply create more volatility and generate few of the intended benefits. And that would not be good for China or the world economy.

中國政策制定者面前的根本問題在於，他們是不是願意履行自己對金融領域改革的承諾，採取更廣泛的舉措去爲市場鬆綁，並通過有力的制度基礎來予以支撐。否則，試圖推動市場自由又想維持國家控制，就有不可避免的矛盾，而這種矛盾可能會致使原本好意的改革舉措產生反作用。這隻會製造更多的波動，且幾乎不會帶來什麼預期的良好效果。而這對中國和世界經濟，都不是好消息。