中國面對棘手匯率難題 The unenviable currency problem facing China

If the prospect of the Chinese renminbi’s entry into the basket of currencies composing the special drawing right was supposed to insulate it from the whims of speculation, no one appears to have told the foreign exchange traders.

如果說中國的人民幣加入特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子應該使人民幣免受投機的影響，似乎沒有誰告訴外匯交易員這一點。

Yesterday, after data showed Chinese exports in November sharply lower over the year on the back of weak external demand, the renminbi dropped to its lowest level in four years. Earlier this week, it emerged that Chinese official foreign exchange reserves registered their third-largest monthly decline on record in November.

昨日公佈的數據顯示，由於外需疲弱，11月中國出口較上一年同期大幅下降，導致人民幣匯率降至4年低點。本週早些時候，有消息稱，11月中國官方外匯儲備錄得歷史上第三大月度降幅。

Beijing is discovering that symbolic achievements such as admission to the SDR basket are less important than having a sustainable growth model. China is trying to effect a hugely difficult balancing act between short-term growth and long-term stability. In the face of capital outflows and downward pressure on the currency, it must steer an uneasy course between the two.

北京方面發現，人民幣加入SDR貨幣籃子等象徵性成果，不如擁有一個可持續增長模式重要。中國正想方設法在短期增長和長期穩定之間達成非常艱難的平衡。面對資本流出和人民幣貶值壓力，中國必須在兩者之間找到一條艱難的路。

Having long ago announced its intention to shift from an economy led by investment and exports to one driven by domestic and particularly consumer demand, China has been overtaken by events. A slowdown in global export demand, and a general sell-off of emerging market currencies, have assisted the first goal, on a cyclical rather than a structural basis. But they have done little to help the second leg of growth in consumer demand and domestic services.

中國很早以前就宣佈推動經濟轉型，把增長動力由投資和出口轉向國內、尤其是消費需求，但如今受到了各種事件的衝擊。全球出口需求的放緩，加上新興市場貨幣普遍遭到拋售，從週期上而不是結構上幫助中國減少對出口的依賴，但是對於消費需求和國內服務基本沒有幫助。

In August, in response to pressure on the currency, China allowed the renminbi to fall and announced that henceforth it would follow a more market-determined pattern. To the extent that it was a true move towards a freely floating currency, this was a decision in the right direction. However, it would have been much better taken in calmer times, looking like principle rather than expediency. Since then, the renminbi has continued to operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty over how far the natural pressures of buying and selling will be allowed to operate.

8月，爲了應對匯率壓力，中國允許人民幣貶值，並宣佈，從此將允許匯率更多地由市場因素來決定。就採取真正措施實現匯率自由浮動而言，這個決定的方向是正確的。然而，如果該決定是在更平靜的時期作出會好得多，那樣的話看起來就是在依原則行事，而不是在採取權宜之計。自那時以來，人民幣行情一直籠罩在不確定氛圍中，人們不知道中國會在多大程度上讓買賣的自然壓力決定人民幣匯率。

There is some good news. First, whatever excitable currency warriors might think, China is clearly not embarking on a deliberate competitive devaluation to boost manufacturing exports. A fall in the currency accompanied by a rapid decline in foreign exchange reserves is evidence of policymakers trying to manage a devaluation rather than engineering one.

有一些好消息。第一，無論易激動的貨幣鬥士可能有何種想法，中國政府明顯並沒有爲了刺激製造業出口而故意推動競爭性貶值。人民幣貶值的同時，中國外匯儲備快速減少，證明政策制定者正在努力應對貶值，而不是策動貶值。

There is also tentative evidence that domestic demand may be responding to the multiple cuts in interest rates and reductions in banks’ reserve requirement ratios that the People’s Bank of China has implemented. Although imports dropped by 8.7 per cent in dollar terms last month on a year earlier, the fall was smaller than expected, suggesting stronger demand sucking in goods from abroad.

也有初步證據表明，國內需求或許正對中國央行(PBoC)的多次下調利率和存款準備金率做出迴應。儘管上個月以美元計的進口同比下降了8.7%，但下降幅度小於預期，表明有更強的需求在吸收外國商品。

Beijing had better hope that such signs of life continue. China is in an unenviable position, albeit one largely of its own making. Having unbalanced its own economy for decades while external conditions — buoyant demand and rapid capital inflows — were supportive, it is attempting to reverse that in a much more unfavourable environment. Its next immediate challenge is to manage the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates next week, especially if, as markets expect, borrowing costs are raised.

北京方面最好祈禱這樣的“生命跡象”持續下去。目前，中國正處在一個不妙的境地，不過，這主要是它自己造成的。在外部條件有利時（需求旺盛、資本流入快），中國曾允許經濟失衡數十年，如今正努力在不利得多的環境裏逆轉失衡。中國的下一個即將來臨的挑戰，是應對美聯儲(Fed)下週有關利率決定的後果，尤其是，如果借債成本如市場預期的那樣升高的話。

This week’s news was not terrible for China: it shows an economy in awkward transition with policymakers trying to cushion the blow. Yet with its room for manoeuvre reduced by weak global demand and skittish investors, Beijing will need luck as well as judgment to continue the process.

本週的消息對中國來說並不可怕：它表明中國經濟正在艱難轉型，而政策制定者正努力減緩衝擊。不過，由於全球需求疲弱和易受驚嚇的投資者壓縮了中國的調控空間，中國將需要判斷力和運氣才能繼續轉型之路。