中國互聯網數字有無水分 Big numbers behind Chinese internet leave some unconvinced

The big numbers of the China’s internet keep getting bigger.

中國互聯網行業的大數字在不斷變得更大。

Last Monday, ecommerce group Alibaba announced that it had hit a target of Rmb3tn ($462bn) in annual sales, a number that is more than the entire US’s ecommerce market for 2015, estimated last month by the census bureau at $341bn.

上週一，電商集團阿里巴巴(Alibaba)宣佈，該公司實現了3萬億元人民幣（合4620億美元）年電商交易額的目標。這個數字大於2015年美國電商市場的總體規模。根據上月美國人口普查局(Census Bureau)的估算，去年美國電商交易規模爲3410億美元。

The next day, Didi Kuaidi, China’s largest internet ride-hailing platform, announced it had hit a milestone of 10m rides per day, with the company saying this made it “the largest mobile-based transportation platform in the world”.

接下來的一天，中國最大的互聯網打車平臺滴滴快的(Didi Kuaidi)宣佈，日均完成訂單首次突破1000萬，該公司表示這使它成爲“全球最大的移動出行平臺”。

The scope of China’s internet users are significant — valuations of the country’s internet companies are some of the highest in the world, based on the perception that China’s 668m internet users are clicking, buying, searching and shopping on them in droves.

中國互聯網用戶數量龐大。中國多家互聯網公司的估值在世界上屬於最高之列，這是因爲人們認爲，中國的6.68億互聯網用戶在這些公司的平臺上頻繁點擊、購買、搜索、消費。

But while few doubt that China’s internet is a dizzying growth story, just how dizzying is open to some debate. Analysts are cautious about endorsing all the claims of China’s internet behemoths, and some are outright sceptical.

但是，儘管很少有人懷疑中國互聯網有着令人暈眩的增長故事，但這種增長有多快是值得討論的。分析師們對中國互聯網巨頭的種種說法持保留態度，有些分析師直截了當地表示出懷疑。

Duncan Clark, chairman of BDA, a Beijing-based consultancy and author of a book on Alibaba, says there are legitimate reasons why growth in internet companies should be high. “In China there are often very poor or inefficient offline services, so the online alternatives have had a disproportionate impact on commerce,” he says. “That fuels a leapfrogging effect and big growth.”

位於北京的諮詢公司BDA的董事長鄧肯•克拉克(Duncan Clark)表示，互聯網公司的增長速度應該很高，這是有合理原因的。“在中國，線下服務要麼很差、要麼低效，所以線上服務對商業產生了過大的影響，”他說，“這就帶來了跳躍式發展和高增長。”克拉克寫了一本關於阿里巴巴的書。

On the other hand, “there is also tremendous competition to be seen as the number one player — so there is a temptation to try to go for the bigger number”, he says.

另一方面，“也存在着巨大的競爭，都爭當第一——所以有追求更大數字的動力”，他說。

Shaun Rein, founder of the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group, says China’s internet is “undeniably huge”, but adds that there is a persistent perception the numbers may be over-egged.

位於上海的中國市場研究集團(China Market Research)的創始人雷小山(Shaun Rein)說，中國互聯網市場“無疑是巨大的”，但人們一直認爲相關數字或許被誇大了。

For example, many merchants on Alibaba’s virtual market place fake sales in order to boost their rankings. “The merchants all want five stars, and the way to do that is to fake orders,” he says.

比如，阿里巴巴在線市場的許多商家通過刷單提高店鋪星級。“商家都想要五星級，實現目標的手段就是刷單，”他說。

He estimates the amount of faked orders on Alibaba at 20-30 per cent of gross merchandise value (GMV). Anne Stevenson Yang, head of Beijing-based J Capital Research, goes even further, charging that Alibaba’s GMV is up to 50 per cent overstated.

他估計，刷單數量佔到阿里巴巴商品交易總額(GMV)的20%至30%。位於北京的美奇金投資諮詢公司(J Capital Research)的負責人楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)甚至認爲，阿里巴巴的GMV被高估了50%。

Alibaba calls these estimates “baseless”, saying: “We take a prudent approach in the calculation of our GMV, which is scrubbed of fictitious transactions and transactions over certain amount.”

阿里巴巴稱這些估算“毫無根據”，並表示：“我們在計算GMV過程中採取了審慎的方法，剔除了虛假交易和高於某一數額的交易。”

Ms Yang has frequently drawn attention to what she believes are inflated internet statistics, driven by the pressure to raise funds.

楊思安已多次使人們的注意力集中到了她眼中虛高的互聯網統計數字上——虛報數據是迫於融資壓力。

“These companies are under pressure to show world beating growth in volumes and the provenance of these statistics is unclear at best,” she says.

“這些公司壓力很大，必須展示出類拔萃的規模增長，這些統計數字說好聽點是出處不明，”她說。

For instance, she points out government data showing 86 per cent of Chinese internet users have incomes of less than Rmb5,000 ($769) per month.

比如，她指出，政府數據顯示，中國86%的互聯網用戶的月收入不及5000元人民幣（合769美元）。

That has not stopped them from spending Rmb12tn ($1.9tn) in 2015 transactions on Alipay, Alibaba’s payment affiliate, according to research by Credit Suisse published in February.

可是根據瑞信(Credit Suisse) 2月發佈的研究報告，2015年他們用阿里巴巴的支付平臺支付寶(Alipay)完成了12萬億元人民幣（合1.9萬億美元）的交易。

That $1.9tn compares to $282bn total transaction volume for PayPal in 2015, and equivalent to two-thirds the global total, according to Juniper Research. The Alipay totals “seem very high”, according to Windsor Holden, the author of the Juniper Research report.

根據Juniper Research的數據，這1.9萬億美元與2015年PayPal 2820億美元的總交易額形成鮮明對比，而且相當於全球總交易額的三分之二。在Juniper Research研究報告的撰寫人溫莎•霍爾登(Windsor Holden)看來，支付寶的交易總額“看起來非常高”。

Ant Financial, Alipay’s parent group, declined to comment, but an analyst at iResearch, a Beijing-based consultancy whose statistics were used by Credit Suisse, said that the large number is partly explained by the large amount of non-ecommerce payments that Alipay handles.

支付寶的母公司螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)拒絕置評，但位於北京的諮詢公司艾瑞諮詢(iResearch)的一位分析師稱，這個巨大的數字可以從支付寶處理的大量非電子商務支付得到一部分解釋。艾瑞諮詢的數據爲瑞信所採用。

One source of confusion is how companies define their statistics, says Ms Yang.

楊思安稱，一個令人困惑之處是企業如何界定它們的統計指標。

While companies like Alibaba and Facebook report “active users” for their services, social media and gaming giant Tencent reports monthly “active user accounts” for its social media sites QQ and WeChat. The company reported 850m QQ monthly active user accounts in September, or 127 per cent of China’s internet users as measured by the governmental China Internet Network Information Centre.

阿里巴巴和Facebook等企業報告的是使用其服務的“活躍用戶”，而社交媒體和遊戲巨頭騰訊(Tencent)報告的是其社交媒體軟件QQ和微信(WeChat)的月“活躍賬戶”。去年9月，騰訊報告稱，QQ月活躍賬戶爲8.5億，相當於中國互聯網信息中心(CINIC)提供的中國互聯網用戶總數的127%。

Alibaba, meanwhile, has long faced questions about its GMV. Like Chinese competitor and US-based eBay, this total includes items that have not been paid for. However, says it is more stringent and will not count an unpaid transaction if it is over Rmb2,000. JD said in an earnings release this month that using Alibaba’s methodology would boost its GMV by 31 per cent.

與此同時，阿里巴巴長久以來一直面臨着圍繞其GMV的疑問。像其在中國的競爭對手京東()和總部位於美國的eBay一樣，這一總數中包含未完成支付的商品。不過京東自稱更加嚴謹，如果單筆未支付交易超過2000元人民幣則不會統計在GMV中。京東本月公佈財報時表示，如果用阿里巴巴的方法來計算，其GMV將增加31%。

Since its 2014 initial public offering, Alibaba has changed its definition of GMV — formerly it did not count all items over Rmb100,000, while in its most recent annual report it said it excludes only “transactions in certain product categories over certain amounts and transactions by buyers in certain product categories over a certain amount per day”.

2014年進行首次公開發行(IPO)以後，阿里巴巴改變了其GMV的定義。以前它不統計所有超過10萬元人民幣的商品，然而在其最近一次年報中，阿里巴巴稱其只排除了“超過特定數額的特定產品類別的交易，以及買家每日超過特定數額的特定產品類別的交易”。

The company has recently tried to shift the focus away from sales and on to other growth metrics such as revenue. When he announced the GMV milestone last week, Joe Tsai, Alibaba’s executive vice-chairman, said: “Our focus on quality and sustainable growth means how we measure success is no longer dependent on a simplistic view of GMV growth.”

阿里巴巴最近試圖將重心從銷售額轉向營收等其他增長指標上。上週，阿里巴巴執行副主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)在宣佈GMV取得里程碑增長時稱，該公司的重點已放在追求高質量增長和可持續增長方面，這意味着其不再單純從GMV增長的角度來衡量成功與否。

The remark left Mr Clark slightly confused. “That was an odd thing. They seemed to be announcing a number that they didn’t want us to focus on in the future.”

這一言論讓克拉克有點困惑。“這是件奇怪的事。他們發佈了一個數字，似乎又不願我們以後關注這個數字。”