石油市場“硝煙”濃 Oil prices are at the mercy of geopolitics

Geopolitics and geoeconomics are pounding down on the oil market, and the price seems to have no place to hide.

地緣政治和地緣經濟正在對石油市場狂轟濫炸，而油價似乎無處可藏。

The latest barrage comes this week from the re-entry of sanctioned Iranian oil to the world market, triggered by Tehran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement. The lifting of sanctions, originally expected to happen in March or April, was sped up to bolster support for President Rouhani in Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections. As a result, the returning oil will arrive in an already glutted market at a time of maximum seasonal weakness — and when geoeconomic pressures are mounting.

最新的炮火是在本週落下的。由於德黑蘭遵守了核協議，曾經受到制裁的伊朗石油重新進入世界市場。制裁原本預計將於3月或者4月解除，爲了在即將開始的伊朗議會選舉中增強對伊朗總統哈桑脠哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)的支持，這一過程加快了。結果是，伊朗石油將在季節性疲軟最嚴重、且地緣經濟壓力正在上升的時期，進入一個已經供過於求的市場。

Oil prices are within hailing distance of where they were at the end of 2003, before China’s economic take-off ignited the so-called commodity “supercycle”, which drove up the prices of oil and other commodities. But the China of 10 per cent annual growth is no more. The question that now haunts the oil market is whether what we are seeing is China’s transition from an industrial to a consumer and services-oriented economy, or whether there are deeper structural problems that mean slower growth and more turbulence of the kind recently seen in the Chinese stock market. The significance for the global economy is enormous, and a weaker world economy means less growth in demand for oil at a time when world supplies are swelling.

油價已經接近2003年末的水平，那時中國的經濟騰飛還未催生拉高石油和其他大宗商品價格的所謂大宗商品“超級週期”。但中國經濟年增長10%的情景已成爲過去。現在困擾石油市場的問題是，當前我們所看到的情景是中國經濟轉型——從工業導向型經濟向以消費和服務業爲導向的經濟轉變——所致，還是存在更深層的結構性問題，這些問題引起增長放緩，以及更多的市場動盪（類似於中國股市最近經歷的）。這個問題對全球經濟具有重大意義，而世界經濟更爲疲弱，就意味着在世界石油供給上升的時候，石油需求的增長會減慢。

The stronger dollar is also buffeting the oil price. A decade ago, when the price was surging and the dollar (in which oil prices are denominated) was weakening, economists talked about how oil moves “co-negatively” with the dollar exchange rate — when the dollar goes down oil prices go up. The opposite is happening today.

美元走強也衝擊着油價。10年前，當石油價格飆升，而美元（石油以美元計價）走弱的時候，經濟學家說石油和美元匯率的走勢是“負相關”的——美元走低時油價上升。如今，情況正好相反。

The oil price collapses in 1986 and 1998 ended when oil exporters got together and reined in production. But geopolitics is working against a quick settlement this time. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries believe that Iran is seeking to become the dominant power in the Middle East. The nuclear agreement not only provides Iran with billions of dollars that had been sitting in international banks because of sanctions, but also enhances Iran’s political position.

1986年和1998年的油價大跌因爲石油出口國聯合起來控制產量而告終。但這一次地緣政治不利於問題的快速解決。沙特阿拉伯和其他海灣國家認爲，伊朗正尋求成爲中東地區佔據支配地位的強國。核協議不僅爲伊朗提供了此前因制裁而凍結在國際銀行中的大量資金，還加強了伊朗的政治地位。

The Gulf countries fear this could be further augmented if it leads to some kind of US-Iranian detente. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, says nothing like that will ever happen. But in the face of a resurgent Iran, the last thing that the Gulf countries want to do is cut back their own oil production in order to surrender space for additional Iranian exports into Asia and northwestern Europe.

海灣國家擔心，伊朗地位可能進一步上升，如果核協議使美國和伊朗關係出現某種緩和的話。伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)表示，像這樣的事情永遠不會發生。但面對再度崛起的伊朗，海灣國家最不願意做的事情就是減產，讓出空間讓額外的伊朗石油得以出口到亞洲和歐洲西北部。

Today’s weak oil prices are having a devastating impact on the global energy industry and are putting enormous stress on oil-exporting countries, and on some regions in the US, Canada, Scotland and elsewhere. Worldwide, projects are being slowed, postponed or cancelled, which will begin to affect availability of supplies two or three years from now. IHS projections show a $1.8tn reduction between 2015 and 2020. Skilled professionals are leaving the industry and many will never return.

疲軟的油價正對全球能源行業產生破壞性影響，也給石油出口國，以及美國、加拿大、蘇格蘭和其他地區帶來了巨大壓力。在全球範圍內，多個項目被放慢進度、推遲或取消，這將會在兩三年後開始影響石油的供應量。IHS的預測顯示，2015年到2020年期間相關投資減少1.8萬億美元。高級專業人員正在離開這個行業，許多人永遠都不會再幹回這一行。

This steady stream of negative developments only reinforces the sentiment that is weighing down on the oil price. One can add to this the fear among some that the global industry could run out of places to store the surplus.

這一穩定的負面發展潮流，只會加劇正在壓低油價的市場情緒。除此之外，還有部分人擔心，全球石油行業可能會沒有地方存儲過剩石油。

What could reverse the collapse? Later this year, or in 2017, the workings of supply and demand are likely to start to bring the market back into balance. But there will be a great deal of wrenching anguish between now and then. Alternatively, the impact of the price collapse could be so devastating that exporting countries that have said they will not restrain production — including Russia and even Iran — could change their position and come to terms with the Gulf countries, who insist that they will not cut by themselves.

什麼因素可能扭轉石油跌勢？今年晚些時候或2017年，供需因素的運行可能會開始令市場重返平衡狀態。然而，從現在起到那時，市場將會經歷許多令人糾結的痛苦。還有一種可能就是，油價崩盤的破壞力之大，可能會令那些原本表示不會減產的石油出口國（包括俄羅斯，甚至伊朗）改變立場，與堅稱不會獨自減產的海灣國家達成協議。

Then there is American shale oil. US oil output is down about half a million barrels from last April — not as much as was expected last year, partly because new offshore supplies from the Gulf of Mexico are offsetting the decline in shale. However, further declines in US shale would certainly serve to mitigate the widespread market pessimism.

還有就是美國的頁岩油。自去年4月以來，美國石油產量下滑了約50萬桶，下滑幅度低於去年的預期，這部分是由於來自墨西哥灣的新增離岸石油供應填補了頁岩油產量的下滑。不過，美國頁岩油產量的進一步下滑，無疑會起到緩解市場普遍悲觀情緒的作用。

Ironically, another counterweight to that pessimism could come from the fact that sanctions have been lifted on Iranian oil. The agreement of the nuclear deal removes a big uncertainty that has been hanging over the market. Now the question is exactly how much additional oil the Iranians will — or can — bring back to the market. Iran’s finance minister has described the current oil price as representing “an all-out war” for market share. But if the actual volumes turn out to be lower than has been anticipated, or if the Iranians are slower in bringing them back, then the market would have further reason to moderate its bleak outlook.

諷刺的是，另一個可能會減淡這種悲觀情緒的因素是對伊朗石油的制裁解除這件事。核協議的達成，消除了困擾市場的一大不確定性因素。如今，問題變成伊朗到底會（或者到底能夠）向市場增加多少石油供應。伊朗財政部長曾稱，目前的油價代表着一場爭奪市場份額的“全面戰爭”就要打響。然而如果伊朗實際恢復的石油供應量低於預期，或者如果伊朗石油進入國際市場的腳步比較慢，那麼市場的黯淡前景就有進一步理由緩和一下。

The direction of the oil price and, to a considerable degree, the future of highly volatile global financial markets hang on the outcome.

油價的走向取決這一結果，跌宕起伏的全球金融市場未來前景如何，很大程度上也要看這一結果。