周小川警告中國債務水平偏高
China’s central bank governor has warned that the country’s corporate debt levels are too high and are stoking risks for the economy, just as highly-leveraged Chinese companies have gone on an overseas takeover binge.
中國央行行長警告，中國企業負債水平過高，正在助燃經濟風險。目前，高槓杆的中國企業掀起了境外併購狂潮。
Adding his voice to a recent chorus of concern by senior Chinese officials, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), told global business leaders meeting in Beijing that the ratio of lending to gross domestic product was becoming excessive.
中國人民銀行(PBoC)行長周小川呼應了近期中國其他高官的表態，他在北京舉行的全球商界領袖會議上表示，債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比正在變得過分。
“Lending and other debt as a share of GDP, especially corporate lending and other debt as a share of GDP, is on the high side,” he said, adding that a highly leveraged economy was more prone to macroeconomic risk.
“總的借貸等債務和GDP的比重，特別是企業部門借貸等債務佔GDP的比重偏高，”他表示。他補充說，一個高槓杆的經濟更容易產生宏觀經濟風險。
Corporate debt in China has risen to about 160 per cent of GDP, while total debt is about 230 per cent, according to Financial Times estimates. The Bank for International Settlements warned this month that a steep rise in private and corporate debt in emerging market economies — “including the largest” — was “eerily reminiscent” of the pre-crisis financial boom in advanced economies.
根據英國《金融時報》估算，中國的公司債務已上升到約相當於GDP的160%，而總債務約相當於GDP的230%。國際清算銀行(BIS)本月曾警告，新興市場經濟體——“包括其中最大的”——私人和公司債務急劇增加，“弔詭地讓人聯想起”發達經濟體在金融危機爆發之前出現的金融繁榮。
Mr Zhou’s comments came at the end of a week of extraordinary dealmaking by Chinese companies overseas, with Anbang, the Chinese insurance company, bidding nearly $20bn for Starwood Hotels & Resorts and Strategic Hotels & Resorts.
周小川發表此言之際，中國企業在境外交易方面結束了異常繁忙的一週。中國保險商安邦(Anbang)出價近200億美元收購喜達屋酒店及度假村(Starwood Hotels & Resorts)和Strategic Hotels & Resorts。
Total outbound Chinese merger and acquisitions spending since January is over $100bn, according to figures from Dealogic. Data from 54 Chinese companies that did overseas deals last year show that many are “highly leveraged”, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Dealogic的數據顯示，自1月以來，中國企業對外併購收購總額已超過1000億美元。另據標準普爾全球市場情報(S&P Global Market Intelligence)介紹，去年達成境外交易的54家中國企業的數據顯示，有很多是“高槓杆的”。
Chinese officials are concerned that the stability of China’s financial system could be threatened if Chinese companies are unable to repay a large amount of debt, which in turn can threaten economic growth. And as recent months have shown, instability in Chinese financial markets and risks to mainland economic growth rapidly feed through into global markets.
中國官員們擔憂，如果中國企業無法償還大量債務，中國金融體系的穩定可能受到威脅，進而危及經濟增長。同時，正如近幾個月的情況所表明的，中國金融市場的不穩定和中國經濟增長面臨的風險，會很快波及全球市場。
Earlier this month Moody’s warned it may downgrade China’s sovereign rating, a sign of increasing investor concern about the country’s rising debt and falling foreign exchange reserves.
本月早些時候，穆迪(Moody’s)警告其可能下調中國主權評級，這個跡象表明投資者對中國債務上升、外匯儲備下降的擔憂正在加劇。
Mr Zhou told the China Development Forum, attended by top government officials as well as foreign business chiefs including Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, that one way to tackle high leverage was to develop “robust capital markets” so that companies can increase equity financing and reduce reliance on debt.
周小川對出席“中國發展高層論壇2016年會”的高級政府官員和外國企業老總——包括Facebook的馬克•扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)表示，解決高槓杆率的一種方法是“促進資本市場健康發展”，使企業能夠增加股權融資，減少對借貸槓桿的依賴。
Last week China’s chief banking regulator announced a move to try to tackle the country’s bad debt problem by opening the way for the country’s lenders to use debt-for-equity swaps to rid themselves of some of the $200bn of bad bank loans on their balance sheets.
上週中國銀行業監管機構負責人宣佈了一項旨在解決國內不良貸款問題的舉措，允許國內各銀行利用債轉股手段，擺脫其資產負債表上2000億美元不良貸款的一部分。
Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, raised the idea at the closing session of the annual meeting of parliament in Beijing.
中國銀監會主席尚福林在北京舉行的全國人大年度會議閉幕會議上提出這一構想。
The plan has been put forward as a way of tackling the trillions of renminbi of debt that have built up in the Chinese economy as a result of decades of debt-fuelled stimulus and easy credit.
該計劃是被作爲處置中國經濟中積累的數萬億元人民幣債務的一種方式而提出的，這些債務是長期由債務推動的刺激以及寬鬆信貸的結果。
Chinese banks’ bad debts stand at Rmb1.27tn, according to official figures, although some analysts believe the real number is many times higher.
根據官方數字，中國各銀行的不良貸款總計1.27萬億元人民幣，儘管一些分析師認爲，實際數字要高出很多倍。
About one-third of listed Chinese companies owe at least three times as much in debt as they own in assets, according to figures from Wind.
根據Wind資訊的數字，大約三分之一中國上市企業的債務至少三倍於資產。
Also speaking at Sunday’s conference, Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, said China was in the middle of a historic transition that was “good for China and good for the world.”
同樣在週日會議上發表講話的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，中國正在推進一場歷史性轉型，這種轉型“對中國有利，對世界有利”。
“The world will be watching closely to learn from China as it deftly manages the delicate balance between economic transformation and deeper global integration,” she said.
“在中國巧妙把握經濟轉型與加深全球一體化之間的微妙平衡之際，世界將密切關注，汲取中國的經驗，”她表示。
