現在不是賣空中國的時候
China continues to dominate discussions about the health of the world economy. Many are concerned about the country’s slowing growth and its ability to manage the difficult transition from a controlled economy dominated by manufacturing to a more open economy with greater reliance on domestic consumption. Some policy decisions last year also scared the market.
中國繼續主導有關世界經濟健康狀況的討論。很多人擔心中國經濟增長放緩，以及中國能否把控艱難的經濟轉型——從製造業主導的管制經濟，轉向更依賴國內消費的更加開放的經濟。中國去年出臺的一些政策決策也令市場感到恐慌。
While the risks are many and real, they are manageable and well-understood by China’s policy makers. This is not the time to sell China short.
儘管存在很多實實在在的風險，但它們是可控的，中國的政策制定者也很瞭解這些風險。現在不是賣空中國的時候。
The government is determined to achieve its average 6.5 per cent growth target between now and 2020 and it has the means to do so. We expect increased investment in regional development, support for production of higher value goods, and improvements to infrastructure.
中國政府下定決心實現從現在至2020年年均6.5%的經濟增長目標，它也有辦法實現這一目標。我們預計中國將加大在地區發展上的投資，支持更高價值產品的生產，並改善基礎設施。
The government also plans to reduce the cost of doing business. And it will buffer the social and economic dislocations that inevitably arise as economies evolve. Recent official figures and our bank’s experience on the ground suggest such measures are taking effect, building the foundations for a more balanced economy.
中國政府還計劃降低經商成本。同時，中國政府還將緩和隨着經濟發展不可避免出現的社會和經濟混亂。最近的官方數據以及我們銀行的實地經驗表明，這些措施正在生效，爲更平衡的中國經濟奠定基礎。
For many in the west, China is the land of export-oriented smokestacks and assembly lines, but the economy is already rebalancing. The dynamic, innovative services sector makes up more than half the economy and is growing annually at high single digit percentage.
對於很多西方人來說，中國是以出口爲導向的煙囪工廠和流水線的集中地，但是中國經濟已經開始再平衡。充滿活力和創新的服務業在經濟中的佔比超過一半，每年正在以較高的個位數百分比增長。
Alibaba has become the world’s biggest retailer by building an ecosystem customised for more than 400m Chinese on-line consumers who increasingly shop on mobile devices. Wanda, China’s largest commercial property company and cinema operator, has built and runs shopping malls in 100 Chinese cities and is growing a financial services business to serve the 30,000 tenants of those malls.
阿里巴巴(Alibaba)已經成爲全球最大的零售商，憑藉的是爲超過4億日益通過移動設備購物的中國在線消費者打造定製化的生態系統。作爲中國最大的商業地產公司及影院運營商，萬達(Wanda)在中國100座城市建造並經營購物中心，同時正在發展金融服務業務，爲購物中心的30000個承租商家提供服務。
By issuing millions of loyalty cards to retail customers, Wanda gains valuable knowledge about how its tenants are trading, allowing them to offer financial products, such as payment cards, tailored to customers’ needs. This is the old economy transitioning to new economy before our eyes – and on a massive scale.
通過向零售客戶發放數以百萬計的會員卡，萬達掌握了其承租商家的寶貴交易信息，使得它們可以提供依據客戶需求定製的金融產品，比如支付卡。這就是我們眼前正在發生的舊經濟向新經濟的轉型——而且是大規模轉型。
Over the next 20 years another 300m people – roughly the population of the US – are expected to move from the countryside to Chinese cities. Alibaba, Wanda and many others are plugging directly in to this burgeoning domestic economy. We expect China to navigate its way to self-sustaining growth less dependent on exports.
未來20年，預計中國將有3億人口（與美國總人口數量大致相同）從農村遷往城市。阿里巴巴、萬達和其他很多企業正在直接投入到中國飛速增長的國內經濟中。我們預計，中國將漸漸轉向自給自足的經濟增長，減少對出口的依賴。
The other side of China’s economic rebalancing requires the government to wind down zombie manufacturing companies that are redundant in today’s economic environment. This careful dismantling will take many years and will cause upheaval as millions of workers are required to move to new locations and jobs.
中國經濟再平衡的另一個方面要求政府逐步關閉製造業殭屍企業，它們在當今經濟環境中已成多餘。謹慎解決該問題將耗時很多年，同時，隨着數以百萬計的工人不得不前往新的地方和工作崗位，這將引起社會動盪。
The government faces a tricky task to achieve this transition without social unrest but it is capable of doing so, including through greater social security provision. The cost of addressing dislocated labour for targeted industries may be expensive, perhaps as much as 1-2 per cent of GDP.
中國政府正面臨着在不引起社會動盪的情況下實現經濟轉型的棘手任務，但是它有能力做到這一點，途徑包括提供更完善的社會保障。解決目標產業裁員問題的成本可能很高，或許高達GDP的1%-2%。
But in a more centrally-planned economy, much of it state-controlled, China may manage the process better than the US and Europe did in the 1970’s and 1980’s.
但是，中國經濟的中央計劃色彩較濃，政府控制着經濟中的很大一部分，因此中國或許會比上世紀70年代和80年代的美國和歐洲更好地管控這一過程。
China’s gross debt has reached levels which may be uncomfortably high by international standards. The debt could well rise further, as China tries to apply counter-cyclical stimulus to give itself breathing space to drive through much-needed reforms.
中國目前的總債務已經到了按國際標準可能高得令人不安的水平。隨着中國試圖運用反週期刺激措施來獲得喘息空間、推動亟需的改革，債務水平可能會進一步上升。
Whilst this stimulus is having diminishing effectiveness, I believe the transition is manageable, especially considering China’s debts are by and large domestically held and backed adequately by state and local assets. China’s net debt is comparable to levels in the US, UK and Japan, even after considering the debt of state-owned enterprises and the possible need for additional bank capital.
雖然這種刺激措施的有效性會遞減，但是我認爲中國的經濟轉型是可控的，特別是考慮到中國的債務主要由國內持有，並且得到國家和地方資產的足夠支持。即使考慮到國有企業的債務和可能需要增加銀行資本的情況，中國的淨債務也與美國、英國和日本的水平相當。
Many question whether the costs of rebalancing will be borne by banks via loan losses. Were the manufacturing industry to restructure quickly, and were the inherent losses to accrue to those companies’ lenders, non-performing loans could be significant.
很多人質疑經濟再平衡的成本是否會通過貸款損失由銀行承擔。如果製造業迅速重組，如果固有損失由那些企業的貸款方承擔，不良貸款的規模可能會很大。
While it is not clear how this will play out, given the degree of state ownership in the banking system and the state’s available resources, we believe the country has the capacity to absorb the rebalancing costs.
儘管目前尚不清楚情況將如何演進，但是考慮到中國銀行體系的國有程度以及政府的可用資源，我們相信中國有能力吸收再平衡成本。
Recent events have revived concerns about central control of the economy and policymakers’ willingness and ability to embrace a free market. China knows it has to loosen the reins and continue to open up its capital account.
最近的事態再次使人們擔憂中國經濟的中央管控和政策制定者迎接自由市場的意願和能力。中國知道它必須放鬆管控，並繼續開放資本賬戶。
In conversations with officials I detect a renewed sense of humility and a willingness to recognise past mistakes such as mis-steps over last year’s equity market bubble and poor communication around the devaluation of the renminbi. Policy communication has been clearer this year and officials accept there will be bumps on the road to a sustainable economic future, but they are committed to its success.
在與中國政府官員對話時，我察覺到他們身上新出現一種謙遜感，並且願意承認過去犯下的錯誤——比如在去年股市泡沫中的錯誤舉動，以及對人民幣貶值的溝通不力。今年中國政府在政策溝通上更加清晰，政府官員承認在邁向可持續經濟發展未來的路上會有顛簸，但是他們下定決心要實現成功轉型。
China’s short-term challenges are significant. We don’t expect a smooth path during its transition. But for those who are willing to invest for the long term, the end goal remains enticing.
中國面臨的短期挑戰十分艱鉅。我們不認爲中國的經濟轉型會一帆風順。但是對於那些願意長線投資的人來說，最終的回報仍然誘人。
