減稅對美經濟提振效果受到質疑

Even as US stocks roared higher yesterday in response to the passage of the Senate tax bill, analysts were expressing scepticism about the notion that it will transform an economy already running close to full employment.

昨日，儘管美股因美國參議院通過稅改法案大幅走高，但分析師對該法案將讓已接近充分就業的美國經濟發生改觀的觀點表示了懷疑。

Kent Smetters, a former Bush administration official who oversees the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said he expected at most a 0.1 percentage point uplift to annual growth rates over the course of 10 years as a result of the legislation. The long-run impact on trend growth would be negligible, he added, as the extra debt amassed as a result of lost revenue weighed down on the economy. “It is not a significant boost,” he said.

賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院預算模型(Penn Wharton Budget Model)主管、前布什政府官員肯特?斯邁特斯(Kent Smetters)表示，他預計該法案的影響是，在未來10年將經濟年增長率最多提高0.1個百分點。他接着說，對於趨勢增長率的長期影響可以忽略不計，這是因爲稅收收入減少會導致政府債務增加，令經濟承重。“對經濟的提振效果不會太大，”他說。

Politically, there is no doubt that the passage of the package is opportune. The US has seen two successive readings of annual GDP growth running at 3 per cent or more and the Atlanta Fed’s model points to 3.5 per cent growth for the final quarter of the year.

在政治上，一攬子稅改的通過無疑時機正好。美國已有連續兩年國內生產總值(GDP)增速爲3%或3%以上，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行(Atlanta Fed)的模型預測今年第四季度的增長率將達3.5%。

Assuming the legislation goes through, it will effectively put Republicans in a position to adopt the recovery as their own, pointing to their tax changes as fuel for the continued growth and potentially boosting their prospects in midterm elections next year.

假設該立法獲得通過，它實際上將讓共和黨得以把復甦歸結爲自己的功勞，聲稱他們的稅改爲持續增長提供了動力，並可能提升他們在明年中期選舉中的獲勝前景。

Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, told the FT before the Senate deal went through that significant tax reform would mean “at the very least the odds of sustaining growth at the 3 per cent level go up enormously”.

在參議院通過稅改之前，經濟顧問委員會(Council of Economic Advisers)主席凱文?哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)告訴英國《金融時報》，這次重大稅改將意味着，“最起碼把增長率維持在3%水平的概率大大提高了”。

But the Republican party will also have to take responsibility for widening deficits, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projecting that tax and spending legislation currently on the agenda could propel the US back to trillion-dollar deficits as soon as 2019. And the package arguably leaves unaddressed longer-term economic challenges alongside rising public debt, including higher inequality, poor educational outcomes and slowing labour force growth.

但共和黨同時也將不得不對赤字擴大負責，美國盡責聯邦預算委員會(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)預測，當前議程中的稅收與支出立法可能最早於2019年把美國推回萬億美元赤字的境地。除了不斷升高的公共債務，一攬子稅改還可以說對於長期經濟挑戰仍然未作解決，包括不平等程度加劇、教育成效低和勞動力增長緩慢。

The House and Senate now face the difficult task of reconciling their two versions of the legislation, as they dash to get a bill on the president’s desk by the end of the year. But the increasing likelihood of the tax bill becoming law is prompting analysts to boost their growth forecasts for the very short term.

參衆兩院如今面臨着調和它們各自版本法案的艱難任務，它們正力爭在年底前把一份法案提交至總統的辦公桌。但這項稅改法案變成法律的可能性越來越大，促使分析師調高他們的短期經濟增長預測。

Alec Phillips, a Goldman Sachs analyst, said the tax revenue reduction was worth about 0.6pc of gross domestic product in 2018 and 1.1pc of GDP in 2019. Looking at how much of this was actually going to be spent, and therefore turned up in extra GDP, it translated into a 0.3 percentage point boost to 2018 GDP and a 0.3 percentage point uplift to 2019 GDP, he said. “After that the size of the tax cut flattens off and starts to decline somewhat, so we don’t estimate any additional uplift to GDP in 2020.”

高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師亞歷克?菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)表示，減稅大致相當於2018年GDP的0.6%，相當於2019年GDP的1.1%。他說，考慮減稅部分實際上有多少將被支出、因而變成更多的GDP後，減稅將把2018年和2019年的GDP各提升0.3%。“在那之後，減稅規模會穩定下來，並或多或少開始減少，所以我們估計它將對2020年的GDP起不到任何推升效果。”

The main benefits being touted by the White House stem from reduced individual tax rates and the slashing of the headline corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 20 per cent, which its economists expect to translate into higher investment and therefore increased wages. President Donald Trump took full credit for the soaring stock market yesterday as he discussed the tax cuts, declaring on Twitter that “jobs are roaring back”.

白宮鼓吹的主要減稅好處是個人所得稅的下降以及企業稅從35%降至20%——白宮經濟學家預計這將帶來投資增加、從而帶來工資增長。昨天，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在討論稅改時，把股市上漲完全歸功於自己，他在Twitter上聲稱“就業正在強勢迴歸”。

The Senate’s decision to delay the cut in the corporate rate to 2019, while allowing companies to immediately deduct capital investments from 2018, could further induce firms to rush through investments next year, according to Scott Greenberg of the Tax Foundation. He describes the latter effect as a “huge deal” in the short term, although not all analysts expect the big uplift to GDP from the measure that he does.

參議院決定把降低企業稅率的時間推後至2019年，同時允許企業從2018年開始在應納稅收入中直接扣除資本投資。美國稅收基金會(The Tax Foundation)的斯科特?格林伯格(Scott Greenberg)表示，該決定可能進一步促使企業明年匆匆加大投資。他形容後者在短期內將“收效卓著”，儘管並非所有的分析人士都像他一樣認爲該措施將大幅提升GDP。

Over the longer term, the tax bill’s effects are more ambiguous. Jason Furman, who chaired Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said higher debt would gradually impose a mounting counterweight on the economy’s performance beyond next year. He said he too would advocate business tax reform, but “I would make sure it is paid for and make sure it does not open up new loopholes”.

從長遠來看，稅改法案的影響較不明朗。曾任巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府白宮經濟顧問委員會主席的賈森?弗曼(Jason Furman)表示，債務增加將在明年以後逐漸對經濟表現施加日益嚴重的反作用力。他稱自己也主張進行企業稅改革，但“我會確保它的資金來源並且確保它不會再製造新漏洞。”

Analysis of previous iterations of the tax overhaul has suggested that the benefits would be skewed to the wealthiest in America, in part because holdings of corporate equities are concentrated in wealthier groups. In 2027, when the individual tax cuts will have expired, more than 60 per cent of the benefits of tax reform would accrue to the top 1 per cent of earners, according to the Tax Policy Center. By that year, taxes would rise modestly for the lowest-income group, change little for middle-income groups, and fall for higher-income groups.

對於此次稅改前幾版方案的分析表明，好處將向美國最富有羣體傾斜，部分是因爲企業股份都集中在較富有羣體的手中。據稅收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)計算，2027年當個稅削減到期時，稅收改革超過60%的好處將落到收入最高的1%的人身上。到那時候，最低收入羣體的稅負將略微增加，中等收入羣體的稅負幾乎不變，而較高收入羣體的稅負將減少。

“I don’t think it is going to be a big benefit and it seriously intensifies the wealth inequality problem,” said Bill Cline, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“我不認爲它會帶來很大好處，而且它會嚴重加劇貧富差距問題，”彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的經濟學家比爾?克萊恩(Bill Cline)表示。

He said the principal beneficiaries of the package were likely to be holders of corporate shares and the top 1 per cent. The $1tn budget shortfall expected over the coming 10 years as a result of the plan could prompt some lawmakers to argue for cuts to social spending, which could further hurt those who were poorly off, he predicted.

他稱，稅改的主要受益人可能是持有企業股份的人和最富有的1%的人。他預測，該計劃在未來10年預計將造成的1萬億美元預算赤字，可能會促使一些議員主張削減社會支出，這會進一步傷害貧困人口。