馬來西亞Felda公司上市成功原因何在?

The world's second-largest initial public offering this year after Facebook had a good start last week. Shares in palm-oil producer Felda Global Ventures have jumped 16% following its Thursday debut on Malaysia's stock exchange.

馬來西亞棕櫚油企業Felda Global Ventures上週四在該國證券交易所公開上市以後股價大漲16%。作爲今年排在Facebook之後的全球第二大首次公開募股(IPO)交易，Felda上週的亮相可以說相當搶眼。

What is happening at Felda that is so different from Facebook, whose shares are down alMost 20% since its shares were listed in May?

Facebook自今年5月上市以來，股價已累計下跌近20%。是什麼原因導致Felda上市後的表現與Facebook大相徑庭？

Of course, there is price. Facebook's much-hyped listing valued the company at more than 100 times next year's expected earnings. Felda's IPO priced it in line with peers at about 14 times next year's estimated profits. That may have left some value on the table.

毋庸置疑的是，雙方的差別之一在於發行價。Facebook大肆炒作的上市方案給該公司定下的估值水平是其明年預期盈利的100多倍。而Felda在IPO中定下的估值水平和同行大致相當，約爲其明年預期利潤的14倍。這樣的定價水平給股價未來的上漲留有一定空間。

Beyond valuation, though, buyers of either stock should consider their fellow investors. Facebook insiders - employees and early investors - hold about three-quarters of the shares. Most of those are locked up for six months. That is a drag on the share price because it suggests a flood of stock could hit the market when the lockup period expires.

不過，除了估值，兩隻股票的買家都應該考慮其他投資者的情況。Facebook的內部人士（員工和早期投資者）持有大約四分之三的股份。其中大部分股票的限售期爲六個月。這對Facebook股價的上漲形成拖累，因爲這意味着當限售期結束時將有大批股票涌入市場。

In Asia, too, lockups are common. But it is often so-called cornerstone investors, typically institutional investors, who agree to buy big blocks of shares and hold them for a set period. That reassures individual investors. In a bull market, cornerstone investors are eager to sign up because they know they can turn a profit down the line. Recently, however, volatile markets have made it tougher to pin down blue-chip investors, which is one reason why this year has seen a record number of IPOs by value pulled in Asia.

在亞洲市場，規定新股限售期的做法也很常見。受限售期約束的往往是所謂“基礎投資者”（一般都是機構投資者），這些投資者同意買入大量股份並在一定時間內持有，這能起到穩定個人投資者信心的作用。在牛市中，基礎投資者急於簽訂入股協議，因爲他們明白未來換手能有利可圖。然而最近波動的市場令成功簽下基礎投資者的難度加大，這也是今年亞洲地區推遲上市的公司數量創下紀錄的原因之一。

Felda bucked that trend partly because of the seeming stability of its locked-in investors. Post-IPO, about 70% of Felda's shares are owned by the Malaysian federal government, state governments and a group of investors dominated by a handful of state pension funds. The cornerstone investors and the states can't sell for six months. But unlike fickle venture funds and employees who hold Facebook, state pension funds and local governments are less likely to quickly flip their shares.

Felda能逆勢上漲的部分原因是其基礎投資者看上去較爲穩定。IPO之後，Felda大約70%的股份由馬來西亞聯邦政府、州政府以及其他一些投資機構（以州養老基金爲主）持有。基礎投資者和州政府在六個月內不能出售股票。但和善變的風投基金以及持有Facebook股票的員工不同，州養老基金和地方政府不太可能迅速將持有的股票換手。

Less than a third of Felda's IPO shares were sold to domestic individual investors, Malaysian and regional institutions, local funds or high net-worth individuals approved as investors by Malaysia's trade ministry.

在Felda此次發行的新股中，只有不到三分之一的股票賣給了國內個人投資者、馬來西亞中央和地方機構、當地基金或經馬來西亞貿工部審批被視爲高淨值個人的投資者。

There certainly are reasons for investors to be cautious about Felda. Like Facebook, Felda's profits fell in the final reporting period before its listing. Felda says revenue will be flat for the next three or four years. Macquarie also notes that Felda's palms are lower yielding than rivals and says margins at its downstream refining operations are likely to come under pressure from competitors in Indonesia.

投資者當然有理由對Felda持謹慎態度。和Facebook一樣，在上市前的最後一個報告期內Felda的利潤出現下滑。Felda表示未來三到四年公司營收將保持平穩。麥格理(Macquarie)還指出，Felda的棕櫚油產量低於競爭對手，其下游煉油業務的利潤率可能面臨來自印尼競爭對手的壓力。

But an overhang from locked-in shareholders isn't a big concern. Malaysia's government is keen for Felda's IPO to be a success. Locked up or otherwise, government shareholders are unlikely to make a swift exit.

但投資者不必過於擔心基礎投資者會盡快將手中股票轉手賣出的問題。馬來西亞政府渴望看到Felda的IPO能取得成功。無論是否存在限售期，政府股東都不大可能迅速退出。