美國正處於信貸危機"餘震期"

Here is the reality. We have intense uncertainty on US fiscal, energy and health policies. Nobody knows what their effective tax rate is going to be next year so they cannot plan. When you model that uncertainty in economic terms, you end up with higher liquidity ratios in business and rising savings rates in the personal sector. This damps spending growth and spending is what gross domestic product is all about.

美國目前的現實情況是：在財政、能源以及醫療政策領域存在巨大不確定性。沒有人知道自己明年的實際稅率將是多少，因而也無法提前進行財務規劃。如果將不確定性上升的影響放在經濟模型框架下考察，你會得出企業流動資產比率以及居民儲蓄率都將上升的結論。這將抑制支出增長，而支出規模直接關係到GDP。

On top of that, we have an export shock from the spreading European recession that is only now starting to show through in the data, such as the plunge in US purchasing managers' orders. Now, if the baseline growth trend in the US economy was in the old paradigm range of 4-6 per cent for this stage of the cycle, we could certainly absorb these negative shocks. But the underlying trend in the pace of economic activity is somewhere between 1 and 2 per cent, so there is little margin for error: the cushion is razor-thin.

除此之外，歐洲經濟衰退範圍擴大還對美國出口構成衝擊，目前這種影響剛剛開始體現在數據上，例如美國採購經理指數(PMI)中的新訂單分類指數近期顯著下跌。在當前所處的經濟階段，如果美國經濟的基礎趨勢增長率仍在以往4%至6%的區間範圍內，我們完全有能力吸收這些負面衝擊。但目前經濟活動的潛在趨勢水平已降至1%至2%區間，因此經濟政策的試錯空間極小：緩衝空間非常狹小。

After almost four years of $1tn-plus fiscal deficits, near-zero policy rates, and a Fed balance sheet that is pregnant with triplets, how can we not have some growth, any growth? The government spigots have been turned on to such an extent that if this were a normal plain-vanilla cycle, the economy would have ballooned at an 8 per cent average annual rate since the "great recession" ended three years ago.

近四年來，美國政府財政赤字規模一直高於1萬億美元，政策利率在接近於零的水平徘徊，美聯儲(Fed)資產負債表規模激增，爲何這些因素沒能推動經濟實現較快增長？如果當前經濟處於一個正常的週期階段，在政府如此大規模的流動性注入推動下，整體經濟自2009年"大蕭條"結束以來應能實現高達8%的年均增長。

The fact that it has expanded at barely more than a 2 per cent pace – the weakest recovery ever – speaks to the secular headwinds from debt-burdened households, structural unemployment and retrenchment at state and local government level.

但事實上這段時期內美國經濟的年均增長率僅爲2%——堪稱有史以來最疲軟的經濟復甦——家庭環節揹負沉重債務負擔，結構性失業問題難以解決，州和地方政府則忙着縮減開支，這些問題阻礙着經濟復甦。

Indeed, the recession may well have ended in June 2009, but the problem is that there was no recovery to speak of. Lingering excess supply in the labour market has led to a 5 per cent decline in real median incomes over the past three years.

當然，美國經濟衰退確有可能已於2009年6月結束，但問題是隨後並未出現復甦。勞動力市場長期供過於求已導致實際收入中位數在過去三年中下降了5%。

The necessity of crawling out of excess indebtedness has led to the mother of all deleveraging cycles: the aggregate household debt/income ratio has contracted from the bubble-high 134 per cent in 2007 to a nine-year low of 114 per cent. That is an unprecedented 20 percentage point decline in five years. And what makes this cycle a totally different animal to anything we have seen in the past is the destruction of wealth. The Fed told us recently that median household net worth collapsed an epic 39 per cent from 2007 to 2010. That is a depression statistic. And this is what, shamefully, the economics community has totally missed: the effects, the scars if you like, will linger for a long time.

擺脫過度負債的必要性已引發了去槓桿週期——家庭總負債與總收入之比已從2007年的泡沫峯值134%下降至近九年低點114%，在五年中前所未有地跌去了20個百分點。而令當前這輪週期有別於我們以往所見任何週期的是其對財富的毀滅效應。美聯儲近期公佈，2010年美國家庭資產淨值中位數較2007年顯著下滑了39%。這是一個令人深感沮喪的數據。而經濟研究領域卻極不光彩地將其徹底忽略：經濟危機的影響，或稱其爲傷疤，在很長一段時間裏仍將存在。

This wealth collapse was the equivalent of an earthquake measuring 7 or 8 on the Richter scale, and earthquakes are followed by aftershocks, which is exactly what has provided the biggest hurdle for the post-recession healing phase we have been in for the past three years.

此次財富縮水的影響等同於一場里氏7級或8級地震。正如地震之後通常伴有餘震一樣，財富縮水的餘震效應正是近三年來衰退過後的復甦階段美國面臨的最大障礙。

It takes time for a slump in household net worth to register fully. As such, there are lags between the event and the drawn-out but profound impact on consumer spending patterns, as frugality emerges as the new and lasting fashion.

家庭資產淨值大幅縮水的影響需要一段時間才能完全顯現。不過縱然存在一定時滯，消費者支出模式已經發生了深刻的改變，節儉成爲了經久不衰的消費新風尚。

The baby boomers, who are now entering their mid-60s and the group that was at the epicentre of this tragic collapse in net worth, are still in the process of recalculating their ability to retire when they thought they could at the bubble highs. They have lowered their expectations of what their living standards will look like when they do stop work.

嬰兒潮的一代人裏，年齡在65歲以上者日漸增多。作爲身處此輪財富縮水"震中"的羣體，目前他們仍在忙於重新計算自己能於何時退休，而在危機前的市場泡沫期他們曾認爲自己可以立即享受退休生活。他們還降低了對退休後生活水平的預期。

So the era of the aftershock is what we are in and what we will probably stay in for years to come. That means consumer behaviour and patterns will undergo profound and enduring changes that will prove to be intensely disinflationary and foster a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates, bond yields and expected returns in the public capital markets.

因此，餘震期即是美國當下所處的經濟階段，並且未來很多年美國都將陷在該階段停滯不前。這意味着消費者行爲以及消費模式將發生深刻而持久的變化。這種變化可能產生巨大的通貨緊縮效應，並在很長一段時間內將公開資本市場上的利率、債券收益率以及預期回報率壓制在一個超低水平。

I remain of the view that the secular bull market in Treasuries does not come to a complete end until the long bond goes all the way back to its early 1940s low of 2 per cent, so there is still a hefty 65 basis points of rally left in this monster. This will make spread product an attractive way to pick up a yield premium at the lows and mean dividend themes stay prevalent in the equity market.

我依然認爲，在長期國債收益率回到二十世紀四十年代早期的低點2%以前，美國國債市場漫長的牛市不會真正完結。因此長期國債仍有高達65個基點的上升空間。在國債收益率降至低點時，非美國國債的債券品種將成爲獲取超額收益的有吸引力的投資標的。這還意味着在股票市場上分紅概念仍將流行。

The scars from the detonation of the housing and credit bubble-bust have yet to heal. Household net worth per capita is still 15 per cent or $100,000 shy of where it was five years ago and ultra-low interest rates are punishing those who save in bank deposits or money market funds. The median age of the boomer is 55 going on 56 and retirement is the darkness at the end of the tunnel.

住房與信貸市場泡沫破滅對美國家庭造成的傷痕目前仍未癒合。家庭平均資產淨值較五年前仍低15%，或10萬美元。而超低利率環境則對將資金存入銀行或投進貨幣市場基金的個人不利。嬰兒潮一代的年齡中值處於55歲接近56歲的水平，未來他們退休後的生活前景一片暗淡。

The trend towards second jobs, do-it-yourself, private labels, dollar stores, maintaining your existing vehicle, downsizing property needs, cocooning and frugality will continue unabated. The boomer age of narcissism is over, but look at the bright side: I've never met a Buddhist who wasn't completely tranquil and . . . happy.

當前的潮流是第二職業、DIY、零售商的自有品牌、一美元商店、自己保養現有汽車、縮小住房面積需求以及"宅在家裏"。節儉之風將繼續大行其道。嬰兒潮一代的自戀期現已結束，但還是讓我們想想好的方面吧：我遇見過的佛教徒都是既平靜又快樂的。

David Rosenberg is chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff

戴維•羅森伯格是Gluskin Sheff的首席經濟學家兼策略師